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Local Government Bond Announcement: 2020 Shenzhen (Guangming District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Government Special Bonds (Twenty-two Phases) Credit Rating Report

Time: January 9, 2020 14:25:44 China Finance Network
Original title: Local Government Bond Announcement: 2020 Shenzhen (Guangming District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Government Special Bonds (Twenty-two Period) Credit Rating Report











20
20
Shenzhen (Guangming District) Special Bond for Water Pollution Control (Phase I)


-
20
20
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (
22nd issue)


Credit Rating Report
























































Shanghai New Century Credit Rating Investment Service Co., Ltd.


Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., Ltd.


Overview





Number: [New Century Debt Review (
201
9
)
011660



Bond name








Bond grade




20
20
Shenzhen (Guangming District) Special Bond for Water Pollution Control (Phase I)
-
20
20
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (22 issues)
AAA

























Bonds and issuers profile


Overview of the current bond:


Issuing subject:


Shenzhen Municipal People's Government


Issue scale:


10.2
0
100 million yuan


Bond maturity:


7
year


Repayment method:


Pay interest annually
Repay once


Use of raised funds:


Water pollution treatment project in Guangming District


Source of debt service funds:


Land transfer income


Project estimated funding coverage


Renewal project
1
.35
Times,
New item
1.61
Times


Shenzhen data and indicators


201
6
year


201
7
year


201
8
year


GDP
[
Ten billion yuan
]


200.80


2
24.90


242.22


Regional GDP growth
[%]


9.
1


8.
8


7.6


GDP per capita
[
Ten thousand yuan
]


17.25


18.35


18.96


General public budget revenue
[
100 million yuan
]


3136.49


3332.13


3538.4
4


Of which: City-level general public budget revenue
[
100 million yuan
]


1995.95


2086.76


2
190.1
3


Tax ratio
[
%
]


79.35


79.68


81.95


General Public Budget Self-Sufficiency
[
%
]


74.48


72.54


82.62


Higher subsidy income (General Public Budget)
[
100 million yuan
]


232.42


290.95


286.81


Government Fund Budget Revenue
[
100 million yuan
]


966.40


1029.95


964.64


Of which: Budget revenue of municipal government funds
[
100 million yuan
]


956.02


1026.50


962.53


Municipal government debt balance
[
100 million yuan
]


129.78


118.78


146.27


Of which: government debt
[
100 million yuan
]


127.95


117.
twenty four


145.92


Municipal government debt balance
[
100 million yuan
]


98
.91


105
.
07


94.27


Of which: government debt
[
100 million yuan
]


97.08


103.53


93.92




Note:
Economic data comes from "
2018
Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook,
2018
Statistical Communique of Shenzhen Municipality on National Economic and Social Development in 2015; financial and debt data provided by Shenzhen Municipal Finance Bureau






Analyst





Wang Jingru
wjr
@ shxsj.com


Guo Yan
gy
@ shxsj.com


Wu Mengqi
wmq
@ shxsj.com


Tel
:
(021) 6350134
9 Fax
: (021) 63500872





Hankou Road, Shanghai
398
Huasheng Building
14F


http: //www.shxsj
.com









































Rating perspective





. The proceeds raised from the bonds are intended to be used for water pollution treatment projects in Guangming District.
The debt repayment funds come from the land transfer income of the land surrounding the project in the Guangming area. According to the special bond implementation plan, after the current bond is repaid,
Cumulative balance of renewed projects
1
7.
37
100 million yuan
Cumulative cash balance of new projects
1.23
100 million yuan
It is expected that the cash flow from debt service can form a good coverage of the principal and interest of the bond.

. The current bond income, expenditures, principal and interest payments are included in the budget management of the Shenzhen Government Fund, and the degree of repayment guarantee is high.

Shenzhen has excellent location conditions and policy environment, and its economic scale ranks among the top cities in the Mainland. Shenzhen's economic growth is mainly driven by final consumption. At present, high-tech, financial,
The pillar industries such as logistics and cultural industries, and the strategic emerging industries' role in the engine of economic growth are becoming increasingly prominent. The industry has a competitive advantage and has strong economic growth potential.

Shenzhen has strong local comprehensive financial resources. In recent years, the general public budget revenue has maintained rapid growth. The scale of comprehensive financial resources has been increasing year by year, and financial stability is good. The budget revenue of Shenzhen government funds has remained stable.
Form a certain complement to local financial resources. Shenzhen's fiscal balance is strong, and its dependence on superior subsidies is low.

. 2018
For years,
With the issuance of local government bonds,
The scale of Shenzhen government debt has increased, but it remains low.
Light government debt.

In recent years, Shenzhen's fiscal and taxation systems and debt management and control mechanism have been continuously improved, and the reform of the administrative approval system has been continuously deepened. The government's operating efficiency and service capabilities have continued to improve, government information disclosure has continued to advance, government information transparency is high, and local government management is in good condition.

The debt repayment funds of this period of bonds mainly come from the income from land transfer. There is certain uncertainty in the future land transfer plan and transfer price. And the implementation progress and governance effect of fundraising projects are managed



Management, funding,
Factors such as environmental changes have a greater impact. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the investment project implementation and the land sales income in Guangming District.



C: \ Users \ huangsidi \ Downloads \ Shenzhen advance approval stamp page scanning \ 20191231175138-0016.jpg
Shanghai New Century Credit Rating Investment Service Co., Ltd.


201
9
year
12
month
3
1
day



statement


The rating agency
20
20
Shenzhen (Guangming District) Special Bond for Water Pollution Control (Phase I)
-
20
20
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (
22nd issue)
'S credit rating is stated as follows:


The credit rating of this period's credit rating is based on the performance of due diligence by the rating agencies and rating analysts.
According to the Notice of the Ministry of Finance on Printing and Distributing the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Issuance of Special Bonds by Local Governments"
[2015] 83
number),
Ministry of Finance
Notice on Special Bond Varieties of Local Governments for the Balance of Pilot Development Project Income and Self-financing (Financial Forecast
[2017] 89
number)
,
Opinions of the Ministry of Finance on Doing a Good Job in Issuing Local Government Bonds (
Treasury
[2019] 23
number)
And other related regulations,
And independent judgments made by the agency's local government bond credit rating standards and procedures.

The rating method on which this rating is based is the New Century Rating "China Local Government Bond Credit Rating Method"
,
The rating method can be found on the official website of New Century Ratings.



There is no independent, objective, and fair relationship between the rating agency and the local government bond credit rating analyst and the debtor other than the entrusted relationship of this credit rating event, which affects the rating behavior. It is an honest, objective, and fair relationship, and abides by integrity during the credit rating Principle to ensure that the rating report issued is objective, fair, accurate and timely.



The credit rating and subsequent tracking ratings of this rating agency are based on information provided by local governments, and local governments are responsible for the legality, authenticity, completeness, and accuracy of the information they provide.



In view of the timeliness of credit ratings, the rating agency will follow up on local government bonds.

During the validity period of the credit rating, local governments should provide relevant information to the rating agency in a timely manner when major changes occur in the financial and local economic external operating environment. The rating agency will follow-up follow-up ratings in accordance with relevant rating business specifications and retain changes And the right to announce credit ratings.



The conclusion of this local government bond credit rating is not a recommendation to guide investors to buy or sell various financial products issued by the local government, and creditors' credit, lending or credit sales to the local government.
Nor is it a corresponding comment on the pricing of financial products or debts related to local governments.



The relevant content and digital analysis involved in this rating report are sensitive commercial materials, and their copyright belongs to this rating agency. They must not be modified, copied, reproduced, distributed, sold or transmitted in any way without authorization.







2
020 Shenzhen (Guangming District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bonds (Phase I)


-
20
20
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (
22nd issue)


Credit Rating Report


Paraphrase


New Century Rating, or this rating agency:
Shanghai New Century Credit Rating Investment Service Co., Ltd.


Current bonds:
20
20
Shenzhen (Guangming District) Special Bond for Water Pollution Control (Phase I)
-
20
20
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (
22nd issue)


I. Bond Overview


(I) Main provisions


The issuance scale of the current bond plan is
10.20
100 million yuan, book-type fixed rate interest-bearing debt, term is
7
After the issuance, it can be listed and circulated on the national inter-bank bond market and the stock exchange market in accordance with regulations.

Interest on the bonds is paid annually, and the principal is repaid once due.



Figure 1. Overview of the bond


Bond name:


20
20
Shenzhen (Guangming District) Special Bond for Water Pollution Control (Phase I)
-
20
20
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (
22nd issue)


Issue scale:


RMB
10.20
100 million yuan


Bond maturity:


7
annual


Bond interest rate:


Fixed interest rate


Interest payment method:


Pays annually and repays the loan once due.



Upgrade arrangements:


no




source:
Shenzhen Finance Bureau,
New Century Rating


(2) Use of raised funds and debt repayment arrangements


The funds raised in this bond are intended to be used for water pollution treatment projects in Guangming District, Shenzhen (
Hereinafter referred to as "
Water Pollution Control Project "

, "Fundraising projects", "
The project "or" project "

)
.

The debt repayment funds for this period of bonds came from the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights to the corresponding plots in the Guangming District.

The bond debt income, arranged expenditures, repayment of principal and interest, and issuance expenses of the current period are included in the budget management of the Shenzhen Government Fund.




Analysis of bond repayment guarantee


(I) Overview of investment projects with raised funds


Continued projects in the current bond investment project include
19
Sub-items,
Involving aspects such as the original clean source, pipe network channels, comprehensive water environment improvement, and black and odorous water body management,
The specific conditions of each project are shown in the table below.

among them,
Comprehensive elimination of black and odorous water, bright water purification plant project,
Comprehensive elimination of black and odorous water Gongming core area project and water source purification plant original source project (
EPC
)
Wait
3
The implementation subject of this sub-project is Shenzhen Guangming Water Authority, the rest
1
6
The implementation subject of this sub-project is Shenzhen Municipal Construction and Public Works Department.



Table 2. Estimated total cost of development and construction of further projects (Unit: 100 million yuan)


Serial number


project name


Construction investment estimate


As of
2018
Invested at the end of the year


Surplus investment


1

Guangming District Comprehensive Elimination of Black and Stink Water Body Treatment Project (Scope of Service of Guangming Water Purification Plant)

31.35


0.00


31.35


2

Guangming District Comprehensive Elimination of Black and Stink Water Body Treatment Project (Gongming Core Area and Baihua Community)

24.69


0.00


24.69


3

The original clear source project (EPC) of the industrial zone within the service scope of Guangming Water Purification Plant)

8.05


2.45


5.60


4

Maozhou River Basin (Dongkeng Water) Water Environment Comprehensive Improvement Project

7.86


1.61


6.26


5

Gongming Flood Drainage Canal, Heshuikou Flood Drainage Canal, Shangxia Village Flood Drainage Canal Water Environment Comprehensive Improvement Project

6.39


0.00


6.39


6

Gongming Core Area and Baihua Community Industrial Area

4.25


0.69


3.55


7

Maozhou River (Guangming New District) Water Environment Comprehensive Improvement Project-Maozhou River Mainstream Landscape Enhancement Project

3.51


0.83


2.68


8

Maozhou River (Guangming District) Water Environment Comprehensive Improvement Process-Ecological Water Supply Project of Water Quality Purification Plant

4.53


1.10


3.43


9

Maozhou River (Guangming District) Water Environment Comprehensive Improvement Project—Maozhou River Tributary Flood Drainage Channel Comprehensive Improvement Project

3.89


1.17


2.71


10

Maozhou River Water Environment Comprehensive Improvement Project (Mid-Upstream)-Xintuotou River Comprehensive Improvement Project

3.50


2.36


1.14


11

Rainwater and sewage diversion pipe network project in Gongming core south area

2.72


1.37


1.35


12

Rain and sewage diversion pipe network project in Gongming core west area

2.71


1.71


0.99


13

Rain and sewage diversion pipe network project in north area of Gongming Street

2.59


1.82


0.77


14

Gongming core east area rain and sewage diversion pipe network project

2.53


1.51


1.02


15

Water environment comprehensive improvement project of the tributary (Yutian River) of the upper reaches of Maozhou River Basin

1.77


0.71


1.05


16

Water environment comprehensive improvement project of tributary (Xitian water) in the upper reaches of Maozhou River Basin

1.79


0.63


1.16


17

Maozhou River Basin Water Environment Comprehensive Improvement Project-Mudun River Comprehensive Improvement Phase I Project

0.97


0.47


0.50


18

Maozhou River (Guangming District) Water Environment Comprehensive Improvement Project-Baishakeng Comprehensive Improvement Project

0.73


0.38


0.35


19

Comprehensive water environment improvement project in the upper reaches of the Maozhou River Basin (Dalian Water)

1.04


0.40


0.64


total

114.86

19.23

95.63



source:
Special bond implementation plan,
New Century Rating



according to"
2
0
20
Shenzhen (Guangming District) Special Bond for Water Pollution Control (Phase I)
-
20
20
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (
22nd issue)
Project Implementation Plan "(hereinafter referred to as" Special Bond Implementation Plan "),
The estimated total cost of development and construction for the renewed bond issue of this issue is
114.86
100 million yuan
Consider interest during construction, bond issuance costs,
Bond issuance registration fee,
The dynamic total investment amount after the bond repayment service fee is
118.72
100 million yuan
Of which the project capital is
77.13
100 million yuan, the proportion of total cost is
64.97
%
,
As of
201
8
In place by the end of the year
19.23
100 million yuan
Remaining funds
41.59
100 million yuan was raised through the issuance of special bonds.
2
019
Special bonds issued at the end of the year
33.
00
100 million yuan
Specifically:
2019
year
3
Monthly release
27.00
100 million special bonds,
2019
Shenzhen (Guangming District) Special Bond for Water Quality Improvement (Phase I)
-
2019
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (13 Issues) "
19
Shenzhen debt
14
), The period is
7
Annual coupon rate is
3.37%
;
2019
year
6
Monthly release
6.00
100 million special bonds,
2
019
Shenzhen (Guangming District)
Special Bonds for Water Pollution Control (Phase I)
-
2019
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (17 issues)
"

(Bond abbreviation:
1
9
Shenzhen debt
1
9
),
Duration is
7
Annual coupon rate is
3.53%
.

The scale of the proposed issue is
8.59
100 million yuan.



New projects in the current bond investment project include
8
Sub-projects, involving connection and transformation of drainage networks,
River flood control,
Riverside sewage interception, river sediment disposal, etc. In new projects,
Comprehensive Improvement Project of Water Environment in Guanlan River Basin—
Guangming New District Baihua River Comprehensive Improvement Project and Science City Smart Park Project
2
This project is implemented by the Shenzhen Municipal Construction Department of Guangming District,
the remaining
6
The corresponding sub-district office is the main body of each project.

The specific situation of each project is shown in the table below.



Table 3. Estimated total cost of development and construction of new projects (Unit: 100 million yuan)


Serial number


project name


Construction investment estimate


1


Comprehensive Improvement Project of Water Environment in Guanlan River Basin—
Baihua River Comprehensive Improvement Project in Guangming New District


1.18


2


Science City Smart Park Project


4.37


3


Connection and reconstruction project of drainage pipe network in the village of Fenghuang Office of Guangming New District


0.65


4


Connection and Reconstruction Project of Urban Village Drainage Pipe Network in Mating Office, Guangming New District


1.45


5


Urban Drainage Official Website Connection and Reconstruction Project of Guangming Office, Guangming New District
EPC


1.29


6


Urban Village Drainage Official Network Connection and Reconstruction Project in Yutang Office of Guangming New District


0.88


7


Gongming Office, Guangming New District, Urban Village Drainage Pipe Connection Reconstruction Project


1.10


8


Urban Village Drainage Official Website Connection and Reconstruction Project in Xinhu Office of Guangming New District


1.91


total


12.82




source:
Special bond implementation plan,
New Century Rating


The estimated total cost of development and construction of new projects in the current bond is
12.82
The total investment amount after considering the interest during the construction period, bond issuance expenses, bond issuance registration fees, and bond repayment service fees is
12.94
100 million yuan, of which the project capital is
11.33
100 million yuan, proportion of total cost



for
87.55
%
; Remaining
1.61
100 million yuan is planned to be raised through the issuance of bonds.



(2) Analysis of external environment and project feasibility


Guangming District was established in
2007
year
8
Month, Shenzhen's first economic function zone;
2018
year
5
month,
According to the "Notice of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government on the Establishment of Shenzhen Guangming District" issued by the Guangdong Provincial Government
[2018] 127
No.), the State Council agreed to establish the Guangming District, the administrative area includes Guangming,
Gongming, Xinhu, Fenghuang, Yutang, and Martin.

Guangming District is located in the northwest of Shenzhen.
It is connected to Baoan District in the southwest and borders Dongguan in the north. It is the node on the main axis of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong economy, Shenzhen's bridgehead and important gateway facing the hinterland of the Pearl River Delta ; the total area
156.1
Square kilometers.

201
8
At the end of the year,
Guangming District Permanent Population
62.50
Ten thousand people, an increase from the end of the previous year
4
.7%
.

20
1
6
-
201
8
year,
The GDP of Guangming District are
726.39
100 million yuan,
850.12
Billion and
9
20.59
100 million yuan
Year-on-year growth rates are
9.1
%
,
9.8
%
with
7.3%
.

The pillar position of the secondary industry in Guangming District is prominent.
2018
Annual industrial value added contributes to regional GDP
63.9
%
.



In terms of fiscal revenue,
201
6
-
201
8
year,
The general public budget income of Guangming District is
49.73
100 million yuan,
49.75
Billion and
52.67
100 million yuan
Over the same period,
Government fund budget revenues are
0.07
100 million yuan,
0.07
Billion and
0
.14
100 million yuan, small income scale;
The superior subsidy income of the government fund budget is
147.24
100 million yuan,
17.08
Billion and
6
5.03
100 million yuan
1,
Affected by the fluctuation of state-owned land transfer scale,
The government subsidy budget's superior subsidy income has changed greatly.



1
According to Shenzhen's current financial management system,
The income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights is uniformly ranked first in the city's income, which is divided into parts and then transferred to each district according to the provisions of the urban financial system.



According to the State Council's Notice on Printing and Distributing Action Plans for Water Pollution Prevention and Control
[
2015
]
17
No.) to
2020
In this year, the country ’s water environment quality has been gradually improved, severely polluted water bodies have been greatly reduced, drinking water safety levels have continued to improve, groundwater over-exploitation has been strictly controlled, groundwater pollution has been initially curbed, and the environmental quality of coastal waters has been stable it is good,
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta , Pearl River Delta and other regions have improved their aquatic environmental conditions;
To
2030
year,
Strive for the overall improvement of the quality of the water environment across the country and the preliminary restoration of water ecosystem functions.

2
015
year
6
month
10
Shenzhen City issued the "Shenzhen Comprehensive Implementation of the State Council's Water Pollution Prevention Action Plan and Implementation of the Action Plan for Water Quality Improvement",
Raised to
2020
In the year, the overall quality of the city's water environment was improved, and the centralized treatment rate of urban domestic sewage reached
98%
More than ten thousand yuan
GDP
Water consumption drops to
10
Cubic meters, centralized drinking water source quality compliance rate is stable at
100%
; To
2030
Year, the city's water ecology
Environmental quality has been comprehensively improved, and the ecosystem has achieved a virtuous circle.



In recent years, the Guangming District Party Committee and District Government attaches great importance to pollution prevention work and has fully implemented the "Long River System"

That is, "responsibility system", adhere to problem-oriented, effect-oriented, root-cause-oriented, responsibility-oriented, and build a perfect "
15+
27
+31
District, street, and community three-level river length full coverage system to refine water prevention and control



Pollution, improving the water environment, and other seven river responsibilities, focus on tackling problems such as land preparation for river-related projects.

202
0
Guangming District will continue to promote the re-optimization of the environment, fully consolidate the new achievements of ecological civilization, win the decisive battle for water pollution control, accelerate the construction of drainage network infrastructure, establish a complete drainage network management system, and realize rainwater and sewage diversion in the entire region, and manage well Tertiary pollution sources, greatly reducing the pollution load into the river;
Complete Maozhou River, Baihua River, etc.
15
Water system management and ecological restoration, completed
13
Treatment of black odorous water body and small and slightly black odorous water body,
2020
At the end of the year, the river water will be clear and green.



(3) Analysis of sources of debt service funds


According to the special bond implementation plan,
After the completion of the investment project, it will have a greater positive impact on the overall investment value of Guangming District. During the duration of the project's special bonds,
It is planned to arrange the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights for the corresponding plots in the Guangming Jurisdiction as the source of bond repayment and interest for the current bond.



The planned construction period of the renewed project is
2018
-
2022
year,
It is planned to arrange for the auction of a plot of land on the north side of Guangming Xincheng Station (hereinafter referred to as the "Xincheng Station North Plot")
Of state-owned land use rights
99.6
%
Hezitang Community Jiazitang Community intends to bid for auctioned plots (hereinafter referred to as “Jazitang Community Land”)
Of state-owned land use rights
3
1.8
%
Part of it is used as a source of debt service.

Among them, the residential and commercial land areas to be sold in the Xincheng Station North plot are respectively
11.32
Million square meters and
19.74
Ten thousand square meters.

Guangming District
2
016
-
2019
Annual land transfer bidding and auction data,
Combining the location of the project plot with the actual situation of the surrounding land transfer, based on the principle of prudence,
The project plot
2020
The annual transfer unit price is tentatively set as
1.6
Ten thousand yuan
/
Square meters,
2021
In and after the year, the unit price of land transfer will be
1000
yuan
/
Forecast of the growth rate of square meters.

Land area in Jiazitang Community
1
8.85
Ten thousand square meters,
As the land use planning indicators have not been made public,
Temporarily
3.18
Ten thousand yuan
/
Temporary estimates for square meters,
Regardless of the nature of its land and construction area,
The premium growth of land value in subsequent years will not be considered for the time being.



According to the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Implementation Plan of the Fifth Round of Shenzhen's Urban Financial System" (Shenfu
[2017] 7
No.) stipulates that the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights in Guangming District will be returned to Guangming District in full after deducting policy rigid expenditures and land preparation inputs.

Combining the actual conditions of Guangming District, the policy-related rigid expenditures and land preparation inputs involved in the transfer of land use rights in Guangming District are mainly education funds (the
10%
), Farmland water conservancy construction funds
10%
)
And water conservancy construction fund
3%
).

The total land transfer income corresponding to the renewed project is expected to be
81.57
100 million yuan
The total land transfer income expected to be used for debt and interest payments is
62.81
100 million yuan.




Table 4. Revenue from Land Transfer in the North Lot of Xincheng Station (
unit:
Ten thousand square meters,
Ten thousand yuan
/
Square meters,
Billion yuan)


project

Percentage of land sold in that year

Land area for sale

Unit price of land for sale

Land transfer income

Accrued funds

Amount available for debt service

2021

11.82%

3.67


1.70

6.24


1.44


4.80


2022

9.40%

2.9
2


1.80

5.26


1.21


4.05


2023

14.07%

4.37


1.90

8.30


1.91


6.39


2024

13.36%

4.15


2.00

8.30


1.91


6.39


2025

12.78%

3.97


2.10

8.34


1.92


6.42


2026

38.15%

11.85


2.20

26.07


6.00


20.07


total

99.58%

30.93


-

62.51


14.38


48.13




source:
Special bond implementation plan,
New Century Rating


Table 5. Land transfer income of Jiazitang community plots (
unit:
Ten thousand square meters,
Ten thousand yuan
/
Square meters, billion yuan)


project

Percentage of land sold in that year

Land area for sale

Unit price of land for sale

Land transfer income

Accrued funds

Amount available for debt service

2021

1.35%

0.26


3.18

0.81


0.19


0.62


2022

2.54%

0.48


3.18

1.52


0.35


1.17


2023

2.54%

0.48


3.18

1.52


0.35


1.17


2024

2.54%

0.48


3.18

1.52


0.35


1.17


2025

1.27%

0.24


3.18

0.76


0.18


0.
59


2026

1.27%

0.24


3.18

0.76


0.18


0.59


2027

20.30%

3.83


3.18

12.17


2.80


9.37


total

31.80%

5.99


-

19.06


4.38


14.68




source:
Special bond implementation plan,
New Century Rating


According to the special bond implementation plan,
The various expenditures of the renewal project during the operation period are funded from the general public budget.

The Shenzhen Municipal Water Authority is responsible for the operation and maintenance of the relevant assets of the project, and the relevant expenditures shall be arranged and paid by the responsible department, which will not be included in the scope of this calculation. During the operation period of the project, the government will transfer the land, and the income will be transferred to the state treasury.
Non-tax income,
In addition to stamp duty,
Do not consider other types of taxes for the time being.



Renewed projects meet the investment needs of the project by issuing special bonds.
The issued special bonds are calculated based on the actual issue interest rate.
8.59
The coupon rate of the 100 million yuan bond is in accordance with
3.
54
%
2
Calculation, comprehensive consideration of bond repayment,
Financial input funds,
Land transfer cash inflows, etc.
When the current bond matures (ie
202
7
Year), after repaying the principal and interest of the bond,
Renewed project cash balance
1
7.37
100 million yuan, the annual cash inflow of the project during the bond duration can cover the current year's maturity


2 Reference calculation date (
2019
year
12
month
25
day)
Five days before
7
Average value of one-year government bond yields
40
Basic points, that is, pressing
3.54
%
Make calculations, the same below.




Bond repayment interest,
Expected project coverage
3 for
1
.3
5
Times.



3
In this report, the capital coverage ratio = the accumulated cash balance of the project at the end of the period / the total amount of bond principal and interest paid + 1;



4
Including stamp duty,
Same below.



5
Including bond issuance costs (of bond issuance
1

)
,
Bond issuance registration fee
0.1

),
Bond repayment service fee (
Total debt service
0.05

), The same below.



Table 6. Cash flow simulation calculation results for renewed projects (Unit: 100 million yuan)


year

Capital inflow

Bond capital inflows

Construction investment

Operating cash inflows

Cash outflow during operating period 4

Bond repayment

Bond issue costs 5

Current project cash inflows

Cumulative cash balance of the project at the end of the period

2018

19.23


-


-
19.23


-


-





-


0.00


0.00


2019

3.64


33.00


-
36.60


-


-





-
0.03640


0.00


0.00


2020

17.05


8.59


-
24.50


-


-


-
1.12


-
0.00980


0.00


0.00


2021

14.40


-


-
12.98


7.05


-
1.63


-
6.01


-
0.00020


0.85


0.85


2022

22.82


-


-
21.55


6.78


-
1.56


-
4.47


-
0.00030


2.02


2.86


2023

-


-


-


9.82


-
2.26


-
6.76


-


0.80


3.66


2024

-


-


-


9.82


-
2.26


-
6.72


-


0.83


4.49


2025

-


-


-


9.10


-
2.10


-
6.68


-


0.32


4.81


2026

-


-


-


26.83


-
6.18


-
8.55


-


12.09


16.90


2027

-


-


-


12.17


-
2.80


-
8.89


-


0.47


17.37


total

77.13


41.59


-
114.86


81.57


-
18.80


-
49.21


-
0.0467


17.37


-




source:
Special bond implementation plan,
New Century Rating


According to the special bond implementation plan,
New projects are expected to
202
2
Completed in the year,
After the completion of the project, it is planned to arrange the transfer of income from the use of state-owned land in Jiazitang community plot
6.8
%
Part of it is used as a source of debt service.

The estimated land transfer income for new projects is
4.06
100 million yuan
The total land transfer income expected to be used for debt and interest payments is
3.12
100 million yuan.



Table 7. Land Transfer Revenue of New Projects (
unit:
Ten thousand square meters,
Ten thousand yuan
/
Square meters,
Billion yuan)


project

Percentage of land sold in that year

Land area for sale

Unit price of land for sale

Land transfer income

Accrued funds

Amount available for debt service

2021

0.59%

0.11


3.18

0.35


0.08


0.27


2022

0.59%

0.11


3.18

0.35


0.08


0.27


2023

0.59%

0.11


3.18

0.35


0.08


0.27


2024

0.59%

0.11


3.18

0.35


0.08


0.27


2025

0.59%

0.11


3.18

0.35


0.08


0.27


2026

0.59%

0.11


3.18

0.35


0.08


0
.27


2027

3.21%

0.61


3.18

1.93


0.44


1.48


total

6.77%

1.28


-

4.06


0.93


3.12




source:
Special bond implementation plan,
New Century Rating


According to the special bond implementation plan,
Various expenditures of newly issued projects during the operation period are funded from the general public budget.

The operation and maintenance of the project-related assets are specifically responsible by the Shenzhen Water Affairs Bureau.
Relevant expenditures shall be arranged and paid by the responsible department as a whole, and will not be included in the scope of this calculation for the time being. Project operation



In the future, the government will transfer the land, and the income will be turned into the state treasury.
Non-tax income,
In addition to stamp duty,
Do not consider other types of taxes for the time being.



New projects meet the investment needs of the project by issuing special bonds.
3.
54
%
It is calculated that, taking into account the bond repayment and interest payments, financial investment funds, and cash inflows from land transfer, when the current bond matures (ie
2027
Year), after repaying the principal and interest of the bond,
New project cash balance
1.23
100 million yuan, the annual cash inflow of the project during the bond duration can fully cover the amount of debt repayment of principal and interest due in the current year.
1.61
Times.



Table 8. Cash flow simulation results of new projects (Unit: 10,000 yuan)


year

Capital inflow

Bond capital inflows

Construction investment

Operating cash inflows

Cash outflow during operation

Bond repayment

Bond issuance costs

Current project cash inflows

Cumulative cash balance of projects at the end of the period

2019

42775

-

-42775

-

-

-

-

0

0

2020

27030

16100

-43112

-

-

-570

-18

0

0

2021

15599

-

-15029

3,549

818

-570

-

2731

2731

2022

27855

-

-27285

3,549

818

-570

-

2731

5462

2023

-

-

-

3,549

818

-570

-

2161

7623

2024

-

-

-

3,549

818

-570

-

2161

9784

2025

-

-

-

3,549

818

-570

-

2161

11945

2026

-

-

-

3,549

818

-570

-

2161

14106

2027

-

-

-

19,266

4,441

-16,670

-

-1845

12261

total

113259


16100


-
12820
2


40560

9349

-20,090

-
18


12261

-




source:
Special bond implementation plan,
New Century Rating


(IV) Risk analysis of fundraising projects


Risk analysis during construction


The water pollution environmental treatment project is huge, involving river improvement, water quality improvement, and integrated drainage management, and it consumes a lot of manpower, material resources and time.

Due to poor management, environmental changes, etc., there may be insufficient funds and difficulties in completing the project. As a result, the project is postponed.

At the same time, due to complex water conditions and difficult environmental management , there may be risks that the expected treatment effect is not achieved or the effect is not obvious.

However, considering that the main body of the project is the Guangming District Construction and Public Works Department,
Guangming District Water Affairs Bureau and Sub-district Office, the relevant government departments have a high degree of cooperation with the project, and the project construction risk is generally controllable.



In terms of financial risk,
Water improvement project as a public welfare project, the project construction will improve the Guangming District
Aquatic environment,
Improving the livability of cities is of great significance.
Can get strong support from the local government.

Renewed project capital is
77.
1
3
100 million yuan, accounting for
6
4.
97
%
;
New project capital is
11.33
100 million yuan
Of total project investment
87.55
%
;
The remaining part is raised through the issuance of special government bonds, and the source of project funds is more secure. Considering local government bond financing



The capital cost is relatively low, which can reduce the financial burden of the project to a certain extent.



2. Risk analysis during operation period


The debt service funds of this period of bonds are derived from the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights. This part of the income is greatly affected by factors such as the unit price of transfers and industry policies.

If the actual transfer price or transfer progress is significantly different from the expected value, it will have a certain negative impact on debt service funds.

The New Century Rating is based on a risk analysis of the operation period of the investment project.
Make assumptions on the stress test scenario of the cash flow of debt service of the current bond.

The new century rating mainly considers the situation where the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights falls short of expectations.



In the renewed project, in the case where the income from land transfer is not as expected,
As shown in the table below, the income from transfers fell more than expected.
5%
,
10
%
with
1
5
%
In the scenario, to
202
7
When the last special bond of the year expires, the project cash balances are
13.29
100 million yuan,
9.21
Billion and
5.14
100 million yuan, fund coverage rates are
1
.27
Times,
1.18
Times and
1.10
It can be seen that the cash inflow of renewed projects can withstand a certain degree of downward pressure on revenue.



Table 9. Cumulative cash balance at the end of the renewal project under the scenario of land transfer income decline
6 (Unit: 100 million yuan)


6
The stress test only considers the impact of declining income on cash flow and does not consider the impact of changes in taxes and other expenditures on cash flow on cash flow
Same below.



Bond duration


Original cash balance


Income decline
5%
Rear


Income decline
10%
Rear


Income decline
1
5
%
Rear


202
7
year


17.37

13.29

9.21

5.14


Fund coverage


1.35

1.27

1.18

1.10



source:
New Century Rating Arrangement and Calculation


In the scenario where the income of the newly-added project does not meet the expected income, as shown in the following table, the income from the sale of the project is lower than expected
5%
,
10%
with
1
5
%
In the scenario, to
2027
When the last special bond of the year expires, the cash balance of the project is
1.07
100 million yuan,
0.91
Billion and
0.
76
100 million yuan, fund coverage rates are
1.
53
Times,
1.
45
Times and
1.
38
Times, it can be seen that the cash inflow of new projects can withstand the pressure of income decline to a certain extent.



Table 10. Cumulative cash balance of new projects at the end of the decline in land transfer income (Unit: 100 million yuan)


Bond duration


Original cash balance


Income decline
5
%
Rear


Income decline
10
%
Rear


Income decline
15
%
Rear


202
7
year


1.23


1.07


0.91


0.
76


Fund coverage


1.
61


1.53


1.45


1.
38




source:
New Century Rating Arrangement and Calculation


Generally speaking, the cash inflows generated from the investment projects have a good coverage of the project's cash expenditures and the principal and interest of bond financing, and can withstand the pressure of income decline to a certain extent. Bond income, expenses,
The repayment of principal and interest is included in the budget management of the Shenzhen Municipal Government Fund, and debt repayment guarantee is high.




3. Credit quality analysis of Shenzhen Municipal Government


(I) Shenzhen's economic strength


Shenzhen has a superior location and advantages in policy and resources , and its economic development has been steadily at the forefront of large and medium-sized cities in the country. The city's economic growth is mainly driven by final consumption, supplemented by net exports and fixed asset investment, and its economic development momentum is relatively balanced. In recent years, the city has promoted industrial upgrading through innovation, and the pillar industries have obvious competitive advantages. The role of the main engine of strategic emerging industries has continued to increase, and the economic growth potential is sufficient.



Shenzhen is the first special economic zone established since China's reform and opening up.
Also our country
5
One of the planned cities, located in the southern part of Guangdong Province, facing Daya Bay in the east, adjacent to the Pearl River estuary in the west, bordering Dongguan and Huizhou in the north, and being separated from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region by the south, it is the central city of the Pearl River Delta Excellent location. At present, the city's land area is
1997.47
Square kilometers, under the jurisdiction of Futian District, Luohu District, Yantian District, Nanshan District, Baoan District, Longgang District, Longhua District,
Pingshan District,
Guangming District, Dapeng New District, etc.
10
Districts
/
Ribbon.

1980
In 2006, Shenzhen was approved to set up a special economic zone;
1988
In 2015, Shenzhen began to implement a separate plan and has provincial financial management authority;
1992
In 1997, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress granted Shenzhen the power to formulate local laws and regulations;
20
10
year,
The scope of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone extends to the whole city. Overall, Shenzhen has dual status as a special economic zone and a city with a single plan.
It has a prominent position in China's politics and economy.



Shenzhen is a typical immigrant city.
The population structure is relatively young,
Abundant labor resources;
The industrial agglomeration and headquarters economy have significant effects, and the regional population introduction ability is strong. according to"
2016
Annual Shenzhen Gender Statistics Report,
As of
201
6
At the end of the year,
The city's total resident population is
1190.84
Million people, of which
1
8
-
64
Population
81.1
%
,
65
Population aged 15 years and over
3.3
%
,
Below the country
10.8%
The average level of government spending on pensions and medical security is relatively light.

201
8
At the end of the year, the city's resident population increased from the end of the previous year
4.0
%
to
1302.66
Ten thousand people, of which the proportion of registered population
34.
9
%
.



Shenzhen is an important comprehensive transportation hub and border port in China.
Road traffic,
Rail,
The aviation and shipping system has a high level of development.

In terms of highways, the long-distance passenger routes departing from Shenzhen currently cover cities and counties in Guangdong Province.
20
A number of provinces, cities and Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions. For railways,
The national medium and long-term railway network plan has identified Shenzhen as a national railway hub city.
A double cross structure with the Xiamen-Shenzhen Railway as the horizontal axis and the Beijing-Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Passenger Dedicated Line and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway as the vertical axis has basically been formed in Shenzhen. The railway along the railway has basically covered major cities in South China, North China and the southeast coast.

As for urban rail transit, as of
201
8
At the end of the year, Shenzhen has opened
9
Rail transit lines, operating mileage has been formed
296.72
Kilometers, covering major developments in Shenzhen



Axis Urban Rail Transit Operation Network. In terms of aviation, Shenzhen Bao'an Airport is the fourth largest airport in China, and also the first modern international airport in China to achieve sea, land and air combined transportation;
In terms of shipping, Shenzhen Port currently has Shekou, Fuyong, Yantian, etc.
10
Multiple shipping terminals,
201
8
The annual container throughput of Hong Kong is
2573.59
10,000 TEUs, year-on-year growth
2.1
%
.



Thanks to innovation-driven industrial transformation and upgrading, Shenzhen's economy has maintained high-quality growth in recent years.
The level of economic development is steadily among the forefront of large and medium cities in the country.

201
6
-
2018
Shenzhen's regional GDP
2.01
Trillion yuan,
2.25
Trillion and
2.42
Trillion yuan,
2
018
Annual GDP still ranks third among large and medium-sized cities in the Mainland;
Year-on-year growth rates are
9
.1
%
,
8.8%
with
7.6
%
,
Respectively higher than the national level in the same period
2
.4
One,
1.
9
A and
1.0
Percentage points.

201
8
Shenzhen's per capita GDP reached
18.96
Ten thousand yuan,
Per capita GDP
2.93
Times, ranking first among the four first-tier cities in the country.



Figure 11. 2
018
Comparison of Major Economic Indicators of Shenzhen with the National and Other Cities in 2014


index


20
1
8
year


201
8
year


Shenzhen


Nationwide


Proportion


Beijing


Shanghai


Guangzhou


GDP(
Billion yuan)


24221.98

900309.5


2
.69%


30320.0


32679.9


22859.
4


among them:
Added value of the secondary industry


9961.95


366000.9


2.72
%


5647.7


9732.5


6234
.1


Tertiary industry added value


14237.94


469574.6


3.03
%


24553.6


2284
3.0


16401.8


GDP growth rate (
%
)


7.6

6.6


-


6.6


6.6


6.2




source:
Country and Shenzhen,
Websites of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou Statistics Bureau.


Figure 12. 201
6
Main Economic Indicators and Growth Rate of Shenzhen City since the Year (Unit:
100 million yuan
%
)


index


201
6
year


201
7
year


2018
year


Amount


Increase


Amount


Increase


Amount


Increase


GDP
7


20079.70


9.1


22490.06


8.8


24221.98


7.6


Added value of the primary industry


8.28


-
0.4


19.57


27.0


22.09


3.9


Added value of the secondary industry


8310.65


8.1


9318.10


9.2


9961.95


9.3


Tertiary industry added value


11760.77


9.9


13152.39


8.4


14237.94


6.4


GDP per capita (10,000 yuan)


17.25


3.8


18.35


3.9


18.96


3.2


Per capita disposable income of residents


4.87


-


5.29


-


5.75


8.7


The total retail sales of social consumer goods


5512.76


8.1


6016.19


9.1


6168.87


7.6


Investment in fixed assets


4078.16


23.6


5147.32


23.8


6191.01


20.6


Total imports and exports (100 million US dollars)
8


3984.39


-
9.9


4141.46


3.9


29983.74


7.0




7
from
2017
Since the beginning of the year,
R &
D
)
Expenditure is included in the GDP calculation,
2018
Based on this, the Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook adjusted the regional GDP in the previous year.
This report uses adjusted values.

In addition,
2017
year,
The Shenzhen-Shanshan Special Cooperation Zone is included in the Shenzhen GDP calculation.



8
2
018
The total annual import and export unit is 100 million yuan.
The growth rate is the year-on-year growth rate in RMB terms.



source:
Shenzhen
2018
Annual statistical yearbook,
Shenzhen
2018
year
12
Monthly statistical indicators and
2018
Statistical Communiqué of Shenzhen Municipality on National Economic and Social Development,
New Century Rating


Shenzhen's industry is dominated by advanced manufacturing and modern service industries.



The economic and modern service industries maintained rapid growth.

201
8
The added value of the secondary and tertiary industries in the city in
1.00
Trillion and
1.42
Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth rates are
9.3
%
with
6.4
%
.

Specifically,
The city's industrial high-end development momentum is good, and the total value added of advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing accounts for the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size.

201
8
In 2015, the city's advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries respectively achieved added value.
6564.83
Billion and
6131.20
100 million yuan
Year-on-year growth
12.0
%
with
13.3
%
, The growth rate is higher than the city's industrial added value above designated size
2.5
Percentage points and
3.8
Percentage points, the proportion of total industrial added value is
70.94
%
with
66.25
%
. In terms of service industry, the development of the city's service industries above designated size includes leasing and business services,
The Internet and related services, software and information technology services industries are mainly developed, and the development trend is good.
201
8
Added value of modern service industry in the city
1.01
Trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase
7.1
%
.



From the perspective of the economic development dynamics structure, Shenzhen has formed a balanced economic development dynamics structure with final consumption as the mainstay, supplemented by net exports and fixed asset investment. The economic development stability is relatively good.

In the last two years,
The city's final consumption rate and capital formation rate were basically maintained at
41
%
,
34%
about,
The momentum of economic development is more balanced.



Table 13. Composition of Shenzhen Regional GDP Expenditure Method (Unit:
%
)



C: \ Users \ wjr \ AppData \ Local \ Temp \ WeChat Files \ 8d314aedc8a291abb3b74639602fe1d.png


Note:
according to
2018
Yearbook of Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook


随着居民生活水平提高和扩大内需政策的出台,近年来深圳市消费总量持续增长,
最终消费对地区经济的贡献率突出。

201
6
-
201
8
年深圳市居民人均可支配收入分别为
4.87
万元、
5.
29
万元和
5.75
万元,区域居民消费能力较强。同期社会消费品零售总额分别为
5512.76
亿元、
6016.19
亿元和
6168.87
亿元,以批发和零售业零售额为主。此外,消费新业态等快速发展对消费增长的驱动作用不断增强。

201
7
年全市电子商务交易额达
2
.34
万亿元,同比增长
15.1%
9.



9
数据来自《
2017
年深圳电子商务发展白皮书》。



深圳市固定资产投资以第三产业为主,近年来投资规模不断扩张,
增速维持在较高水平,民间投资活跃,研发领域持续投入,投资结构不



断优化。

201
8
年全市完成固定资产投资额
6191.01
亿元,同比增长
20.6
%
,其中第三产业投资增长
23.4%
.从具体行业投向看,房地产行业、制造业及水利、环境和公共设施管理业等行业为主要投资方向,其中房地产项目开发投资占比较大,且近年来投资规模维持高速增长。

201
8
年全市房地产开发投资同比增长
23.6
%
.得益于开放的经济政策环境,深圳市民间投资活跃,
201
8
年实现民间投资同比增长
12.5
%
,高出全国水平
3.8
个百分点。



对外经济方面,
2016
年受欧美市场需求放缓、经济下行压力加大及部分企业产能外迁等因素影响,深圳市进出口总额呈现负增长,
2
017
年受益于全球经济和贸易的复苏,全市进出口总额呈恢复性增长。总体看,近年来货物和服务净出口总量对经济增长的贡献度有所下滑。

201
6
-
2017
年深圳市进出口总额分别为
3984.39
亿美元和
4141.46
亿美元,
同期贸易对外依存度
10分别为
131.80
%
with
124.
33
%
,经济对外依存度高。

2
017
年以来深圳市来料加工装配贸易及进料加工贸易等劳动密集型产业在外贸出口总额中占比继续下滑,
贸易结构不断改善。

201
7
年在全市外贸出口总额中进料加工贸易出口额
842
.41
亿美元,
占外贸出口总额的
34.
47
%
.受进口规模增长较快影响,
2018
年,深圳市实现进出口总额
29983.74
亿元,较上年增长
7.0%
.



10
对外贸易依存度
=
进出口总额
*
当年人民币对美元平均汇率
/
GDP
*100%
.



从支柱产业发展情况看,
深圳市目前支柱产业为高新技术产业、金融业、物流业和文化产业,
201
8
年四大支柱产业合计实现增加值
1.55
万亿元。高新技术产业方面,深圳市已形成以电子信息产业为主导的高新技术产业集群,并成为我国高新技术成果产业化的重要基地。

201
8
年,全市实现高新技术产业增加值
8296.63
亿元,同比增长
12.7
%
,为全市第一大支柱产业。

金融业方面,
深圳市金融业集聚区包括福田、罗湖、前海深港现代服务业合作区(以下简称“前海合作区”)等,其中前海合作区将打造我国金融业对外开放试验示范窗口。

201
8
年全市金融业增加值为
3067.21
亿元,
同比增长
3.6
%
;当年金融业对全市税收的贡献率为
22.37%
,
高于制造业(
20.30%
)
,成为全市纳税第一的产业。

现代物流业方面,
依托优越的地理位置、
完善的基础设施及发达的腹地经济,
深圳市现代物流产业得到高效率的发展,目前主要物流产业园区包括前海湾保税物流园区、盐田物流园区、大空港航空物流园、平湖物流基地、华南物流园等,全国
80%
以上的供应链管理公司总部聚集在深圳,涌现了顺丰、 怡亚通等代表性物流上市公司。文化产业方面,
Shenzhen



是全国第一个获得联合国教科文组织“设计之都”称号的城市,工业设计、平面设计等设计产业全国领先,深圳市知名文化产业企业包括腾讯、
迅雷、 华强文化科技、嘉兰图设计等。

201
8
年全市实现文化及相关产业增加值
1560.52
亿元,同比增长
6.3
%
.



近年来战略性新兴产业对深圳市经济增长拉动作用进一步凸显,
主引擎作用更加突出。深圳市已成为国内战略性新兴产业规模最大、集聚性最强的城市,其中新一代信息技术产业和文化创意产业发展规模相对较大。

201
8
年,
全市七大战略性新兴产业
11实现增加值
9155.18
亿元,
较上年增长
9.1
%
,占全市地区生产总值的
37.80
%
,
其中新一代信息技术产业增加值
4772.02
亿元,
同比增长
10.9
%
;
数字经济产业增加值
1240.73
亿元,
同比增长
3.8%
高端装备制造产业增加值
1065.82
亿元,
同比增长
10.7%
.

此外,深圳市未来产业超前布局,目前已形成包括机器人、可穿戴设备和智能装备产业、海洋产业、航空航天及生命健康产业等四大未来产业,
其中智能装备制造业
2018
年产值
5000
亿元左右。

随着未来产业的逐步发展壮大,将形成新的经济增长点。



11
深圳市七大战略性新兴产业包括新一代信息技术产业、
数字经济产业、
高端装备制造产业、
绿色低碳产业、
海洋经济产业、
新材料产业和
生物医药产业。



根据深圳市“十三五”规划,中长期内深圳市将突出创新驱动、发展新动能,努力将深圳市建设成为国际领先的创新型城市、全国经济中心城市。从发展战略看,
2
016
年国家“十三五”规划纲要将深圳确立为国际科技、产业创新中心;
2
017
年全国海洋经济发展“
十三五”

规划提出将深圳建设为全球海洋中心城市;
2
019
年粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要提出发挥深圳作为经济特区、全国性经济中心城市和国家创新型城市的引领作用,加快建成现代化国际化城市,努力成为具有世界影响力的创新创意之都。作为战略枢纽城市,随着“ 一带一路 ”、
“海洋强国”、
粤港澳大湾区、创新型国家等国家战略的推进,深圳未来发展前景良好。



(二)深圳市财政实力


深圳市财力规模雄厚,
且主要来自一般公共预算,
财力较稳健。

得益于高成长性企业集聚发展,深圳市产业经济创税能力强,近年来全市一般公共预算收入保持较快增长,收入质量及持续性好。

深圳市政府性基金预算收入以国有土地使用权出让收入为主,对地方财力形成一定补充,
近年来规模较为稳定。总体看,
深圳市财政收支平衡能力强,对上级补助收入依赖度低。




深圳市地方财政收入主要来自一般公共预算收入,近年来全市财政实力保持较高水平,
201
6
-
201
8
年全市财政收入合计
12分别为
7402.13
亿元、
7164.04
亿元和
6894.27
亿元,
受一般公共预算中调入资金及调入预算调节稳定基金规模同比减少影响,
2018
年深圳市财政收入合计同比略降
3.77%
,近三年一般公共预算收入总计占比维持在
75
%
the above.深圳市政府性基金预算收入总计占地方财力比重较低,
2
016
-
201
8
年平均占比为
21.
9
%
,政府性基金预算收入的波动对深圳市整体财政实力的影响程度相对有限,地方财力较稳健。



12
本报告中,财政收入合计
=
一般公共预算收入总计
+
政府性基金预算收入总计
+
国有资本经营预算收入总计。



13
税收比率
=
税收收入
/
一般公共预算收入
*
100%


图表14. 深圳市财政收入构成(单位:亿元)


index


201
6
year


201
7
year


2018
year


Citywide


市本级


Citywide


市本级


Citywide


市本级


财政收入合计


7402.13


5009.39


7164.04


4779.13


6894.27


4713.26


一般公共预算收入总计


5673.67


3454.85


5611.52


3370.04


5265.92


3239.03


among them
:
一般公共预算收入


3136.49


1995.95


3332.13


2086.76


3538.44


2190.13


Higher subsidy income


232.42


232.42


290.95


290.95


286.81


286.81


政府性基金预算收入总计


1639
.66


1476.51


1489.98


1356.48


1562.95
-


1419.08


among them
:
政府性基金预算收入


966.40


956.02


1029.95


1026.50


96
4.64


962.53



Higher subsidy income


5.54


5.54


5.17


5.17


5.87


5.86


国有资本经营预算收入总计


88.80


78.03


62.53


52.61


65.40


55.15


among them
:
国有资本经营预算收入


67.59


59.30


38.94


35.44


46.63


40.83




资料来源:深圳市财政局


与经济发展水平相适应,深圳市一般公共预算收入在全国计划单列市中处于领先水平。近年来得益于经济发展质量和效益持续提高,全市一般公共预算收入保持较快增长。

20
1
6
-
201
8
年深圳市一般公共预算收入分别为
3136.49
亿元、
3332.13
亿元和
3538.4
4
亿元,
同比分别增长
15.02%
,
6.24
%
with
6.19
%
,受全面“营改增”

以及中央地方收入划分调整,
同时落实各项减税降费政策措施等因素影响,增速趋缓。考虑到调入资金、上年结余及省补助计划单列市收入等因素,
201
6
-
201
8
年全市一般公共预算收入总计分别为
5673.67
亿元、
5611.52
亿元和
5262.92
亿元。



具体来看,税收收入是深圳市一般公共预算收入主要构成,主要税源行业为制造业、金融、房地产、租赁和商务服务业等。

2
01
6
-
201
8
年税收比率
13分别为
79.35%
,
79.68%
with
81.95
%
,
收入质量及持续性好。

分税种看,全市税收收入以增值税、企业所得税和个人所得税为主,
201
8



年上述三项税种收入合计为
2101.02
亿元,占税收收入的
72.46%
,全市税源结构较稳健。深圳市非税收入主要来自专项收入和国有资源(资产)
有偿使用收入,规模易受政策因素影响,
201
8
年非税收入同比下降
5.67
%
to
638.81
亿元,
主要系国有资源(资产)有偿使用收入大幅缩减所致。

近年来全市一般公共预算上级补助收入规模相对较稳定,但全市产业创税能力较强,一般公共预算财力对上级补助收入依赖度低。

201
6
-
201
8
年上级补助收入占一般公共预算收入总计的比重在
4.1
%
-
5.
4%
之间。



图表15. 201
6
-
201
8
年深圳市全市一般公共预算收入构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject


2016
year


2017
year


2018
year


税收收入


2488.88


2654.89


2899.6
3


主要科目:营业税


3
63
.
9
4


-


-



VAT


6
50
.95


991.28


1046.97



corporate income tax


5
69
.5
2


667.85


680.62



Personal Income Tax


3
04
.75


334.33


373.43


非税收入


647.61


677.24


638.81


主要科目:专项收入


3
82
.34


372.13


389.17


国有资源(资产)有偿使用收入


1
09
.82


155.19


90.42


一般公共预算收入合计


3
136.49


3
332.13


3538.4
4


Higher subsidy income


232.42


290.95


286.81


省补助计划单列市收入


28.93


17.17


32.50


上年结余


178.79


164.46


135.70


调入预算稳定调节基金


861.33


1001.34


735.77


调入资金


1
235.70


805.47


523.70


债务收入


0.00


0.00


13
.00


一般公共预算收入总计


5
673.67


5611.52


5265.92




资料来源:深圳市财政局


深圳市一般公共预算支出主要集中于城乡社区、交通运输、住房保障等方面,近年来全市持续加大民生保障和改善力度,一般公共预算支出规模快速增长,
201
6
-
201
8
年分别为
4211.04
亿元、
4593.80
亿元和
4282.56
亿元,
其中刚性支出占比分别为
27.15%
,
33.60%
with
39.99%
,
一般公共预算支出弹性相对较好。

201
8
年全市对城乡社区事务、交通运输以及住房保障等九大类民生领域
14支出累计投入
2772.29
亿元,占一般公共预算支出的
64.73
%
,重点民生支出得到有效保障。

201
6
-
201
8
年全市一般公共预算自给率
15分别为
74.48%
,
72.54%
with
82.62%
,一般公共预算收入对其支出覆盖程度水平较高。总体看,
在综合考虑调入资


14
九大民生领域为教育、文化体育与传媒、社会保障和就业、医疗卫生、节能环保、城乡社区事务、农林水事务、交通运输以及住房保障。



15
一般公共预算自给率
=
一般公共预算收入
/
一般公共预算支出
*100%
.




金、预算稳定调节基金、上年结余等情况下,深圳市一般公共预算财政平衡能力好。



图表16. 201
6
-
201
8
年深圳市全市一般公共预算支出构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject


2016
year


2017
year


2018
year


主要支出科目:











刚性支出
16


1143
.
18


1543.69


1712.44


Urban and rural community expenditure


5
58
.49


982.96


821.36


资源勘探信息等支出


5
60
.
0
2


221.64


118.25


交通运输支出


4
50
.89


318.27


226.68


Housing security expenditure


4
26
.09


556.55


263.22


一般公共预算支出合计


4211.04


4593.80


4282.56


主要科目:











上解上级支出


71.
98


75.48


73.79


债务还本支出


11.00


26.00


23.00


安排预算稳定调节基金


1010.
31


615.20


616.84


计划单列市上解省支出


144.85


153.23


151.26


年终结余


164.46


135.70


1
16.20


其中:结转下年支出


164.46


135.70


116.20


一般公共预算支出总计


5
673.67


5611.52


5265.92




16
本报告中,
刚性支出指一般公共服务、
公共安全、
教育、
社会保障和就业、
医疗卫生和计划生育五项支出。



资料来源:深圳市财政局


深圳市政府性基金预算收入以国有土地使用权出让收入为主,易受房地产市场行情及土地出让进度等因素影响,近年来规模保持相对稳定,
201
6
-
201
8
年分别为
966.40
亿元、
1029.95
亿元和
964.64
亿元,同比增速分别为
0.25%
,
6.58%
with
-
6.34%
,
受国有土地使用权出让收入减少影响,
2018
年政府性基金预算收入略有下滑。



图表17. 2
01
6
-
201
8
年深圳市政府性基金预算收入构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject


2016
year


2017
year


2018
year


主要科目:国有土地使用权出让收入


896.61


960.72


898.24


政府性基金预算收入合计


966.40


1
029.95


964
.
64


Higher subsidy income


5.54


5.17


5.87


省补助计划单列市收入


0.
78


0.95


1.05


上年结余


666.92


433.81


551.92


调入资金


0.02


0.11


0.08


债务收入


-


20.00


39.40


政府性基金预算收入总计


1639.66


1489.98


1562.95




资料来源:深圳市财政局


深圳市政府性基金预算支出集中于以国有土地使用权出让收入安排支出为主的城乡社区事务支出,
201
6
-
201
8
年分别为
413.75
亿元、



537.04
亿元和
637.44
亿元,
其中城乡社区事务支出占比维持在
90
%
the above.近年来政府性基金预算收入能够完全覆盖其支出,且覆盖情况较好。

由于政府性基金结转规模超过当年收入
30%
的部分,
按规定调出至一般公共预算安排,故调出资金规模相对较大。



图表18. 201
6
-
201
8
年深圳市政府性基金预算支出构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject


2016
year


2017
year


2018
year


主要科目:城乡社区事务


398.62


502.25


581.24


政府性基金预算支出合计


413.75


537.04


637.44


调出资金


792.10


401.03


418.86


年终结余


433.81


551.92


506.64


政府性基金预算支出总计


1639.66


1489.98


1562.95




资料来源:深圳市财政局


深圳市国有资本经营预算收入主要由国有独资公司上缴的利润收入和国有控股公司的股利股息收入构成。

201
6
-
201
8
年分别为
67.59
亿元、
38.94
亿元和
46.63
亿元,其中
2
017
年同比下降
42.3
8
%
,主要系国有控股及参股企业股利、股息收入大幅减少等所致。同期,全市国有资本经营预算支出分别为
54.73
亿元、
41.18
亿元和
38.26
亿元,主要为国有企业资本金注入产生的支出。

考虑到上年结余,调出资金、年终结余等因素,近年来深圳市国有资本经营预算平衡能力较好。



(三)深圳市政府债务状况


深圳市地方财政实力强,城镇化发展水平高,自身财政盈余基本能够满足基础设施建设等财政支出需求,政府举债规模小。近年来债务规模保持较低水平,政府债务负担轻。



近年来,深圳市政府债务规模保持较低水平,政府债务负担轻。

截至
201
8
年末,深圳市政府性债务余额为
146.27
亿元,较
201
7
年末增加
27.49
亿元,
主要为当年新增的专项债券。从债务类型看,全市政府债务(
即政府负有偿还责任的债务)
余额为
145.92
亿元,可能承担一定救助责任的债务余额
0.35
亿元,全部为深圳大学城学生公寓建设贷款;无政府负有担保责任的债务。分层级看,深圳市政府负有偿还责任的债务集中于市本级,
201
8
年末深圳市本级(不含新区)
政府债务余额
93.92
亿元,为历年发行政府债券、国债转贷和地方政府专项债券余额;区级政府债务为
52.00
亿元。




图表19. 近年来深圳市政府性债务情况(单位:
亿元)


债务类型


2016
年末


2017
年末


2018
年末


政府负有偿还责任的债务


127.95


117.24


145.92


政府负有担保责任的债务


0.00


0.0
0


0.00


政府可能承担一定救助责任的债务


1.83


1.54


0.35




资料来源:深圳市财政局


债务限额方面,经国务院批准,
2018
年财政部核定深圳市地方政府债务限额为
384.5
亿元(一般债务限额
313.6
亿元,专项债务限额
70.9
100 million yuan
17)
;
截至
201
8
年末,深圳市地方政府债务余额为
145.92
亿元,
距财政部核定的限额仍有较大的空间。

根据《
关于深圳市
2018
年本级第一次预算调整方案的报告》
,
财政部下达深圳市
2019
年地方政府债务限额为
698.5
亿元,其中新增地方政府债务限额
314
亿元(
包括一般债务限额
11
亿元,专项债务限额
303
亿元)
.

截至
2
019
year
9
月末,深圳市政府债务余额
4
59.91
亿元,
全部为地方政府债券余额及国债转贷余额。



17
财政部原下达深圳市专项债务限额为
241.5
亿元,
2018
year
12
月,财政部根据党中央、国务院关于加快专项债务发行和使用的要求,收回深圳市暂未使用的新增专项债务限额
170.6
亿元,
并对收回额度在全国进行重新分配。



总体看,
深圳市地方财政实力强,城镇化发展水平高,自身财政盈余基本能够满足城市基础设施建设及公益性项目建设等财政支出需求,
政府举债规模小,总体债务偿付压力轻。



(四)深圳市政府治理状况


近年来深圳市财税体制和债务管控机制不断完善;全市行政审批制度改革不断深化,政府运行效率与服务能力持续提高;同时,
政府信息公开工作有序推进,政府信息透明度较高,地方政府管理状况良好。



深圳市作为我国改革开放的窗口,在国家财政体制改革方面拥有先行先试的优势。

1997
年,深圳市率先在全国推行以属地征收、分税分成为核心内容的市区分税制财政体制改革,规范了市区财政分配机制,
对促进全市经济社会发展和财政收入增长起到了重要作用。近年来深圳市持续对地方财政体制进行改革与优化,
目前已实施四轮市区财政体制,
其中第四轮市区财政体制自
2011
年起实施,至
2015
年期满,以财权事权下沉、促进特区一体化发展为目标,体制运行期间财政收入保持较快增长,特区一体化保障水平显著提高。



随着中央财税体制改革的加快,
深圳市强区放权等决策部署逐步落



实,
市区两级间的事权、
财权和支出责任划分持续完善。

2016
年,深圳市制定了第五轮市区财政体制方案,按照事权和支出责任相匹配的原则,落实强区放权,进一步加大力度向区下放事权和财力,更好调动区级积极性,提升基层治理能力和财政保障能力。同时深圳市持续推进预算管理改革,进一步编细编实部门预算,
2016
年市本级财政专项资金、
政府性基金和政府投资资金分类分步纳入部门预算管理;国库改革向纵深推进,
2016
年市本级实现国库集中支付全覆盖;此外,全市制定出台了《深圳市实行中期财政规划管理实施方案》,跨年度预算平衡机制进一步完善。

2
017
年深圳市深入实施第五轮市区财政体制,大力推动事权与支出责任划分改革,推进管理重心和财力下移,增强区级财力保障和基本公共服务供给能力。

2018
年,深圳市实施第五轮市区财政体制中期调整,按照基本公共服务均等化的要求,进一步完善权责清晰、
财力协调、区域均衡的市区财政体制;同时推动深汕特别合作区财政体制调整平稳落地实施。



自国务院发布《国务院关于加强地方政府性债务管理的意见》
(国发
[
2014
]
43
号)
以来,深圳市按照财政部要求做好政府性债务统计和分析工作,动态掌握全市债务情况,政府性债务管理工作持续深入,对债务风险及时评判,对超过或者接近风险线的辖区给予预警;持续完善政府性债务管理体系,债券资金的发行和偿还已明确纳入预算管理,同时持续推进债务风险预警方案的制定工作。

2016
年深圳市制订了《
深圳市地方政府性债务风险应急处置预案》,对债务风险事件建立分级响应机制,实施分类应急处置,进一步健全政府性债务风险管理机制。

2017
year
6
月财政部发布《财政部关于试点发展项目收益与融资自求平衡的地方政府专项债券品种的通知》
(
财预
[
2017
]
89
号)
,鼓励按照地方政府性基金收入项目分类发行专项债券,为此深圳市不断完善专项债券管理,
在严格将专项债券发行与项目一一对应的基础上,加快实现债券资金使用与项目管理、偿债责任相匹配,以及债券期限与项目期限相匹配。

2
017
year
12
月深圳市制定了《
深圳市轨道交通项目专项债券管理办法(试行)

,首次规范了轨道交通项目专项债券的偿债来源、
额度管理、
预算编制等内容。

2018
year
8
月,深圳市成立政府性债务管理领导小组,负责统筹、领导全市政府性债务和隐性债务管理,同时负责组织、协调、
指挥风险事件的应对工作。

2018
year
10
月,深圳市印发《
关于进一步深化预算管理改革强化预算绩效管理的意见》,通过转变理财用财理念、
巩固强化预算管理主体责任、
深化预算编制改革等措施进一步深化预算管理改革。

同期,
深圳市印发《
深圳市市级财政专项资金管理办法》
,



加强和规范市级财政专项资金的管理,提高财政专项资金的使用效益。



深圳市作为改革开放的前沿城市,在政策试点和体制改革等方面承担更多任务,十八届三中全会以来深圳市主动承接中央和省多项改革试点,近年来重点领域和关键环节改革取得重大进展,
2017
年深圳市出台基础设施供给侧结构性改革方案,制定深化国有企业改革方案及配套政策;推进财政预算管理改革,以项目库为重点编早编细编实年度预算。

此外深圳市政府逐步推进强区放权,以简政放权提高供给效率,不断深化行政审批制度改革,
2
017
年取消、下放
175
项市级行政职权,政府运行效率与服务能力持续提高。根据《深圳市
20
17
年改革计划》,深圳市重点推进涉及经济体制、生态文明体制、民主政治、文化体制、社会和司法体制、党建、
纪检等七大领域的
27
项重点改革,其中包括“继续深化强区放权改革”、“构建财权事权相匹配的市区财政体制改革”等推进体制机制创新条款,
涉及推进市级部门的简政放权,强化区级统、
执行筹能力、优化权责匹配;构建财权与事权相匹配的市区财政体制等内容。



近年来深圳市政府主动通过各大渠道公开政府信息情况,信息透明度较高。深圳市政府通过完善政府信息公开制度、深化重点领域信息公开、加强政府信息供给的平台支撑等方面推进信息公开工作。制度方面,
2015
年深圳市政府起草完成《深圳市政府信息公开规定(修订草案送审稿)》,
2
016
年出台了《深圳市人民政府重大行政决策程序规定》,
2018
年制定《深圳市人民政府办公厅关于进一步做好政务公开工作的通知》,
结合深圳实际加强政务公开队伍建设,
信息公开制度逐步完善。内容保障方面,深圳市积极推进行政权力运行信息公开,制定全市统一的行政审批事项目录,全面启动权责清单编制专项工作,并通过编制、公布并动态更新政府信息公开指南和政府信息公开目录,逐步推进财政资金、
公共资源、重大建设项目等重点领域信息公开。平台支撑方面,近年来深圳市充分发挥“
深圳政府在线”网站的信息公开“第一平台”作用,
以“深圳微博发布厅”新浪微博、“深圳发布”微信公众号、“
i
深圳”

政务服务客户端为龙头,着力打造全市政务新媒体矩阵,
完善政府信息主动公开目录,全面规范公开政府文件信息。

201
8
年全市各级行政机关全年主动公开政府信息
117.60
万条,
涉及机构职能类、法规文件类、
业务动态类、行政执法类、办事指南类等多项内容。同时全市加强政府信息供给的平台支撑,
政府可通过网站、
微博、
微信等不同渠道和方式公开政府信息情况,
201
8
年政府公报发布信息
1267
条,政府网站公开



information
92.99
万条,
微博微信公开信息
15.70
万条,通过报刊、广播、电视等其他方式公开信息
8.79
万条。



四、 结论


深圳市具有优越的区位及政策资源优势 ,经济发展水平稳居全国大中城市前列。近年来以创新驱动产业升级,全市产业结构持续优化,支柱产业竞争优势明显,经济增长后劲充足。得益于良好的经济基础,深圳市财力雄厚,财力结构较稳健,财政平衡能力强。近年来,深圳市政府性债务规模较小,债务偿付压力轻。且深圳市不断完善财税体制和债务管控机制,政府运行效率与财政管理服务能力持续提高,政府信息透明度较高,地方政府管理状况良好。



本期债券为新增债券,募集资金拟专项用于光明区水污染治理项目,
偿债资金来源于光明区相应的国有土地出让收入。

在债券存续期内募投项目预计可产生的现金流入能够覆盖对应支出,且有一定规模的现金结余。本期债券收入、支出、还本、
付息等纳入深圳市政府性基金预算管理。总体看,本期债券偿债保障程度高。




跟踪评级安排


根据政府业务主管部门要求以及对地方债信用评级的指导意见,
在本次评级的信用等级有效期【
to
20
20
年深圳市(光明区)水污染治理专项债券(一期)
-
20
20
年深圳市政府专项债券(
二十二期)
的约定偿付日止】
内,
本评级机构将对其进行持续跟踪评级,包括持续定期跟踪评级与不定期跟踪评级。



跟踪评级期间,本评级机构将持续关注深圳市经济金融环境的变化、影响财政平衡能力的重大事件、
深圳市政府履行债务的情况等因素,并出具跟踪评级报告,以动态地反映深圳市地方政府债券的信用状况。



(一) 跟踪评级时间和内容


本评级机构对本期债券的跟踪评级的期限为本评级报告出具日至失效日。



定期跟踪评级将在本次信用评级报告出具后每
1
年出具一次正式的定期跟踪评级报告。定期跟踪评级报告与首次评级报告保持衔接,如定期跟踪评级报告与上次评级报告在结论或重大事项出现差异的,本评级机构将作特别说明,并分析原因。



不定期跟踪评级自本次评级报告出具之日起进行。在发生可能影响本次评级报告结论的重大事项时,
深圳市政府应根据已作出的书面承诺及时告知本评级机构相应事项。本评级机构及评级人员将密切关注与深圳市有关的信息,在认为必要时及时安排不定期跟踪评级并调整或维持原有信用级别。



(二) 跟踪评级程序


跟踪评级将按照收集评级所需资料、现场调研、评级分析、评级委员会评审、出具评级报告、公告等程序进行。



本评级机构的跟踪评级报告和评级结果将对业务主管部门及业务主管部门要求的披露对象进行披露。



在持续跟踪评级报告出具之日后五个工作日内,
深圳市政府和本评级机构应在业务主管部门指定媒体及本评级机构的网站上公布持续跟踪评级结果。




附录:


评级结果释义


根据财政部《关于做好
2015
年地方政府专项债券发行工作的通知》
,地方政府专项债券信用评级等级符号及含义如下:


grade


含义


AAA
level


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极好,偿还债务的能力极强,基本不受不利经济环境的影响,违约风险极低。



AA
level


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况很好,偿还债务的能力很强,受不利经济环境的影响不大,违约风险很低。



A
level


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况较好,偿还债务能力较强,较易受不利经济环境的影响,违约风险较低。



BBB
level


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况一般,偿还债务能力一般,受不利经济环境影响较大,违约风险一般。



BB
level


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况较差,偿还债务能力较弱,受不利经济环境影响很大,违约风险较高。



B
level


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况很差,偿还债务的能力较大地依赖于良好的经济环境,违约风险很高。



CCC
level


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,偿还债务的能力极度依赖于良好的经济环境,违约风险极高。



CC
level


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,基本不能偿还债务。



C
level


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,不能偿还债务。





Note:
AAA
级可用“
-
”符号进行微调,表示信用等级略低于本等级;
AA
级至
B
级可用“
+
”或“
-
”符号进行微调,表示信用等级略高于或低于本等级。














































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