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Local Government Bond Announcement: 2020 Shenzhen (Pingshan District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Government Special Bonds (Twenty Phases) Credit Rating Report

Time: January 9, 2020 14:16:08 China Finance
Original Title: Announcement of Local Government Bonds: 2020 Shenzhen (Pingshan District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Government Special Bonds (Twenty Phases) Credit Rating Report


















































Shanghai New Century Credit Rating Investment Service Co., Ltd.


Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., Ltd.


Overview




Number: [New Century Debt Review (2019) 011658]

Bond name





Bond grade



2020 Shenzhen (Pingshan District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (Twenty Phases) AAA















Bonds and issuers profile

Overview of the current bond:

Issuer:

Shenzhen Municipal People's Government

Issue scale:

450 million yuan

Bond maturity:

5 years

Repayment method:

Pay interest annually

Use of raised funds:

Water pollution treatment project in Pingshan District

Source of debt service funds:

Land transfer income

Project estimated funding coverage

1.22 times

Shenzhen data and indicators

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

Regional GDP [10 billion yuan]

200.80

224.90

242.22

Regional GDP growth rate [%]

9.1

8.8

7.6

GDP per capita [10,000 yuan]

17.25

18.35

18.96

General public budget revenue [100 million yuan]

3136.49

3332.13

3538.44

Of which: City-level general public budget revenue

1995.95

2086.76

2190.13

Tax ratio [%]

79.35

79.68

81.95

General public budget self-sufficiency rate [%]

74.48

72.54

82.62

Higher subsidy income (general public budget) [100 million yuan]

232.42

290.95

286.81

Government fund budget revenue [100 million yuan]

966.40

1029.95

964.64

Of which: City-level government fund budget revenue [100 million yuan]

956.02

1026.50

962.53

Government debt balance of the city [100 million yuan]

129.78

118.78

146.27

Of which: Government debts [100 million yuan]

127.95

117.24

145.92

Municipal government debt balance [100 million yuan]

98.91

105.07

94.27

Of which: Government debts [100 million yuan]

97.08

103.53

93.92



Note: Economic data are from the “Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2018” and “Shenzhen National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin 2018”; financial and debt data are provided by Shenzhen Finance Bureau.




Analyst



Wang Jingru wjr@shxsj.com

郭燕 gy@shxsj.com

Wu Mengqi wmq@shxsj.com

Tel: (021) 63501349 Fax: (021) 63500872



14F Huasheng Building, 398 Hankou Road, Shanghai

http://www.shxsj.com
























Rating perspective




The funds raised in this bond are intended to be used for water pollution treatment projects in Pingshan District, and the debt repayment funds will come from the land transfer income in Pingshan District. According to the special bond implementation plan, the project will be issued by 2025 5
The full-year special bonds will be repaid at maturity, and after deducting the 15-year special bonds reserved for 2025, the cumulative cash balance of the project will be 638 million yuan after 2026-2034
It is expected that the cash flow from debt service can form a good coverage of the principal and interest of the bond.

Shenzhen has excellent location conditions and policy environment, and its economic scale ranks among the top cities in the Mainland. Shenzhen's economic growth is mainly driven by final consumption. At present, high-tech, financial,
The pillar industries such as logistics and cultural industries, and the strategic emerging industries' role in the engine of economic growth are becoming increasingly prominent, the industry's competitive advantages are obvious, and the economic growth potential is strong.

Shenzhen has strong local comprehensive financial resources. In recent years, the general public budget revenue has maintained a rapid growth. The scale of comprehensive financial resources has been increasing year by year.
Financial stability is better. The budget revenue of the Shenzhen government fund has remained stable, which has provided a certain complement to local financial resources. Shenzhen's fiscal balance is strong, and its dependence on superior subsidies is low.

Since 2018, with the issuance of local government bonds, the scale of Shenzhen government debt has increased, but it has remained low.
Light government debt.

In recent years, Shenzhen's fiscal and taxation systems and debt management and control mechanism have been continuously improved, and the reform of the administrative approval system has been continuously deepened. The government's operating efficiency and service capabilities have continued to improve, government information disclosure has continued to advance, government information transparency is high, and local government management is in good condition.

. This period of bond investment projects is still in the early stages of construction, the project investment scale is large, the construction period is long, subsequent construction progress, construction safety and other factors have a greater impact on whether the project can be completed on schedule.
If the project is not completed on time, it may affect the collection of debt service funds.

. The debt repayment fund of this period of bonds mainly comes from the land transfer income of Pingshan District. There is certain uncertainty in the future land transfer plan and transfer price. And the implementation progress and governance effect of fundraising projects



statement

The rating agency's special bond for water pollution treatment in Shenzhen (Pingshan District) in 2020 (Phase I)
-The credit rating of Shenzhen Municipal Government's special bonds (20 issues) for 2020 is as follows:

The credit conclusion of the current bond credit rating is that the rating agency and the rating analysts have performed due diligence on the basis of the Notice of the Ministry of Finance on Printing and Distributing the Interim Measures for the Issuance of Special Bond Issuance by Local Governments (Caiku [2015] No. 83 ), Ministry of Finance, "Notice on the Variety of Special Bonds of Local Governments for the Balance of Revenue and Financing of Pilot Development Projects" (Cai Yu [2017] No. 89), and the Ministry of Finance's "Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Issuing Local Government Bonds" (Finance Ku [2019] No. 23) and other relevant regulations, as well as the independent judgment made by the institution's local government bond credit rating standards and procedures. The rating method based on this rating is the New Century Rating "China Local Government Bond Credit Rating Method", which can be found on the official website of the New Century Rating.


There is no independent, objective, and fair relationship between the rating agency and the local government bond credit rating analyst and the debtor other than the entrusted relationship of this credit rating event, which affects the rating behavior. It is an honest, objective, and fair relationship. Principle to ensure that the rating report issued is objective, fair, accurate and timely.


The credit rating and subsequent tracking ratings of this rating agency are based on information provided by local governments, and local governments are responsible for the legality, authenticity, completeness, and accuracy of the information they provide.


In view of the timeliness of credit ratings, the rating agency will follow up on local government bonds.

During the validity period of the credit rating, the local government should provide relevant information to the rating agency in a timely manner when major changes occur in the financial and local economic external operating environment. The rating agency will follow-up the rating in accordance with the relevant rating business specifications and retain the changes And the right to announce credit ratings.


The conclusion of the local government bond credit rating is not a recommendation to guide investors to buy or sell various financial products issued by the local government, and to provide creditors with credit, loans or credit sales to the local government.
Nor is it a corresponding comment on the pricing of financial products or debts related to local governments.


Relevant content and digital analysis involved in this rating report are sensitive commercial materials, and their copyright belongs to this rating agency. They must not be modified, copied, reproduced, distributed, sold or transmitted in any way without authorization.





2020 Shenzhen (Pingshan District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (Twenty Phases)

Credit Rating Report

Paraphrase

New Century Rating, or this rating agency: Shanghai New Century Credit Rating Investment Services Co., Ltd.

Current bond: 2020 Shenzhen (Pingshan District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bond (Phase I)-2020
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (20 issues)

I. Bond Overview

(I) Main provisions

The Shenzhen Municipal People's Government plans to issue special bonds for water pollution treatment projects in Pingshan District. The current issue size of the bond is planned to be 450 million yuan.
After the issuance, it can be listed and circulated on the national interbank bond market and the stock exchange market in accordance with regulations.

The interest on the bonds is paid annually, and the principal is repaid once upon maturity.


Figure 1. Overview of the bond


Bond name:

2020 Shenzhen (Pingshan District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (Twenty Phases)

Issue scale:

RMB 450 million

Bond maturity:

5-year term

Bond interest rate:

Fixed interest rate

Interest payment method:

Interest is paid annually, and the principal is repaid in a lump sum at maturity. The final interest is paid along with the principal.


Upgrade arrangements:

no



Source: Shenzhen Finance Bureau, New Century Rating

(2) Use of raised funds and debt repayment arrangements

The proceeds raised from the bonds are intended to be used for water pollution treatment projects in Shenzhen Pingshan District (hereinafter referred to as "water pollution treatment projects", "fundraising projects", "the project" or "projects"). The debt repayment funds for this period of bonds came from the land transfer income of Pingshan District. Current bond debt income, arranged expenses,
Repayment of principal and interest and issuance expenses are included in the budget management of the Shenzhen Municipal Government Fund.



Analysis of bond repayment guarantee

(I) Overview of investment projects with raised funds

The bond investment project in this issue is a water pollution treatment project in Pingshan District, which specifically includes 86 sub-projects.
They are all distributed in the area of Pingshan District. For the construction cost estimates of the sub-projects, see Appendix I.


According to the "2020 Shenzhen (Pingshan District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bonds (Phase I)-2020
Shenzhen Municipal Government's Special Bonds (Twenty Phases) Implementation Plan "(hereinafter referred to as the" Special Bonds Implementation Plan "), the total investment of the fundraising projects is estimated to be 9.317 billion yuan, of which the construction cost is 90.31
100 million yuan, interest and expenses of 286 million yuan during construction. The planned construction period of the project is 2018-2023
As of the end of November 2019, the project has completed investment of 1.661 billion yuan. The water pollution treatment project is a government investment project, which is implemented by Shenzhen Pingshan Water Affairs Bureau.


In terms of funding sources, the estimated capital for the investment project is 6.767 billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of the total investment.
72.63%, invested by the government; the remaining amount of 2.55 billion yuan is planned to be raised through the issuance of special bonds, of which 45 sub-projects have issued three special bonds, totaling 950 million yuan, specifically:
“2019 Shenzhen (Pingshan District) Special Bonds for Water Quality Improvement (Phase I) Issued in March 2019
-2019 Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (12 issues) "(Bond Abbreviation: 19 Shenzhen Bonds 13),
The scale is 350 million yuan, the term is 5 years, and the coupon rate is 3.27%. The "2019
Shenzhen (Pingshan District) Water Pollution Treatment Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2019 Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (Phase 16) "(Bond Abbreviation: 19 Shenzhen Bonds 18), scale of 500 million yuan, maturity 5
In 2016, the coupon rate was 3.34%; and the "2019 Shenzhen (Pingshan District) Industrial Park Special Bonds (Phase 1)-Shenzhen Government Special Bonds (Phase 11) 2019" issued in March 2019) : 19 Shenzhen Debt 12) Raised 100 million yuan of funds with a term of 15 years,
The coupon rate is 3.64%. In 2020, the project intends to issue 1.60 billion yuan of special bonds. The issuance plan is shown in Figure 3.


Figure 2. Special bond plan for issuance of investment projects 1


1 The five-year bonds listed in the table are paid annually, with a one-time principal repayment at maturity. The 15-year bonds pay interest on a half-year basis. At the end of the 6th to 15th interest-bearing years of the bond's duration, the principal of the bond will be repaid in equal amounts of 10% of the bond issuance.


project

2019

2020

Issuance quota (100 million yuan)

3.50

5.00

1.00

4.50

11.50

Issue period (year)

5

5

15

5

5



Source: Special Bond Implementation Plan, New Century Rating


(2) External environment and project feasibility analysis

Pingshan District is located in the northeast of Shenzhen. It is adjacent to Huizhou Daya Bay Development Zone in the east and Yantian Port in the west.
It is adjacent to the Dapeng Peninsula in the south and the central city of Longgang District in the north. It is an important part of Shenzhen's "Eastward Strategy" and an important strategic node in the Shenzhen-Wanhui urban circle. The total area of the district is about 166 square kilometers, with 6 streets under its jurisdiction. As of the end of 2018, the permanent population was 444,600.
An increase of 18,300 people over the previous year.


Pingshan District has a good industrial foundation and has formed three pillar industries of new energy (automotive), biomedicine , next-generation information technology and intelligent manufacturing. The pillar industry has developed well in the past three years and is an important driving force for economic growth in Pingshan District. 2016-2018 regional GDP
50.605 billion yuan, 60.506 billion yuan and 70.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, 12.1% and
10.1%, which is higher than the economic growth rate of Shenzhen in the same period. The year-on-year growth rate in 2016 and 2017 ranked first in Shenzhen.


The industrial development of Pingshan District focuses on strategic emerging industries, relying on national bio-industrial bases,
National new energy vehicle industry bases, export processing zones, etc. In recent years, the strategic emerging industries in the region have maintained rapid growth. In 2017, the added value of strategic emerging industries in Pingshan District was 31.390 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, accounting for 51.9% of the regional GDP; of which new energy (automotive),
The added value of industries such as biology and next-generation information technology increased by 27.4%, 47.3%, and 19.7% year-on-year, respectively.
The contribution rate to the region's economic growth is over 70%. The value added of industrial enterprises above designated size in Pingshan District in 2018
38.700 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.0%, ranking sixth in the city. In terms of the service industry, the development of the service industry in Pingshan District is dominated by modern service industries. In 2017, the tertiary industry added value of 16.851 billion yuan.
The year-on-year growth was 9.1%, of which the modern service industry accounted for over 60% of the added value of the tertiary industry. In 2018, the gross output of the tertiary industry in Pingshan District was 24.998 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. According to the “13th Five-Year Plan” of Pingshan District, Pingshan District proposes to foster new development momentum through regional collaborative innovation, and to build strategic emerging industries and future industries led by new energy (automobiles), biotechnology, next-generation information technology, and robotics . With the focus on advanced manufacturing, modern industrial systems supported by modern service industries such as logistics, business conventions and exhibitions, scientific and technological services, finance, cultural creativity, leisure tourism, life and health, etc., are to be built into a smart manufacturing new city that radiates east Guangdong.


In terms of financial resources, thanks to the good economic performance of the pillar industries, the general public budget revenue in Pingshan District has shown an overall growth trend in the past three years. From 2016 to 2018, the general public budget revenues of Pingshan District were 3.631 billion yuan, 4.547 billion yuan, and 4.345 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8% and 25.2%, respectively.
And -4.4%, of which, in 2018, due to the decline in value-added tax and corporate income tax revenue, general public budget revenue declined slightly; the tax rate 2 in the past three years has been above 90%, and the income stability is good. Ping

2 Tax ratio = tax revenue / general public budget revenue * 100%.



The income of mountain government funds mainly comes from the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, which is greatly affected by factors such as land market conditions and government planning. From 2016 to 2018, Pingshan District realized government fund budget revenues of 334 million yuan, 104 million yuan, and 3.379 billion yuan respectively; during the same period, the government subsidy revenues of higher levels were 9.556 billion yuan, 3.566 billion yuan, and 1.783 billion yuan3.


3 According to Shenzhen's current financial management system, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights is the first to rank the city's income at the same level, which is divided into parts and then transferred to each district according to the provisions of the urban financial system.


According to the "Notice of the State Council on Printing and Distributing Action Plans for Water Pollution Prevention and Control" (Guo Fa [2015] 17
No.), by 2020, the country ’s water environment quality will be gradually improved, severely polluted water bodies will be greatly reduced, drinking water safety and security levels will continue to be improved, groundwater over-exploitation will be strictly controlled, and the trend of increasing groundwater pollution will be initially curbed. The environmental quality of coastal waters is getting better and better.
Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta , Pearl River Delta and other regions have improved their aquatic environmental conditions; by 2030,
Strive for the overall improvement of the quality of the water environment across the country, and the preliminary restoration of water ecosystem functions. June 2015
On the 10th, Shenzhen issued the "Shenzhen Comprehensive Implementation of the State Council's Water Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan and Implementation of Actions to Improve Water Quality." It was proposed that by 2020, the city's water environment quality will be improved overall, and the centralized treatment rate of urban domestic sewage will reach more than 98%. Water consumption per yuan of GDP dropped to 10 cubic meters, and the compliance rate of centralized drinking water source quality was stable at 100%; by 2030, the city's water ecology
Environmental quality has been comprehensively improved, and the ecosystem has achieved a virtuous circle.


According to the Shenzhen Pingshan District Ecological Civilization Construction Plan (2017-2020), the current environmental pollution phenomenon in Pingshan District is still prominent. Although the quality of the water environment has improved, the tributary pollution is more serious.
The water quality of the main stream of the Pingshan River and the main stream of the Longgang River (Kengzi section) is inferior to Class V. The ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus,
Major pollutants such as chemical oxygen demand exceeded standards, and black and odorous water bodies still existed. To this end, the Pingshan District government has always attached great importance to comprehensive water resources management. By the end of 2020, the water quality compliance rate of drinking water source reservoirs will be stabilized at 100%. Remediation work to eliminate all black and odorous water bodies in Pingshan District, achieve water quality in the section of Pingshan River, Shangyang and Longgang River, Xihu Village, heavy metal indicators reached Class III, and other indicators were better than IV
The river flood control in the whole region has been basically completed.


(3) Analysis of sources of debt service funds

According to the special bond implementation plan, due to the implementation of the water pollution treatment project, the overall ecological environment, living environment, and business environment of Pingshan District will be greatly improved, the unit price of land transfer in Pingshan District will be increased in the future, and the income of Pingshan Land will be increased. It is planned to use the income from the sale of related land around the project as the source of debt repayment for special bonds.


According to the special bond implementation plan, in 2024-2025, it is planned to arrange the southeast corner of the intersection of Chuangjing Road and Lantian Road at the southeast corner of the junction of Chuangjing Road and Lantian Road in Kengzi Street, Maluan Street, and Shijing Street.


The income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights corresponding to the four parcels on the west side of the intersection of Jixiang Road and Lanjing Road in Kengzi Street was used as the source of repayment. After the land transfer income of all plots is realized in 2025, at the same time, the repayment of the principal and interest repayment funds required for the projects raised by 19 Shenzhen bonds and 12 raised in 2026-2034 will be 106 million yuan.


According to the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Implementation Plan of the Fifth Round of the Urban Financial System in Shenzhen" (Shenfu
[2017] No. 7), the state-owned land use right transfer income in Longhua District, Pingshan District, Guangming District, and Dapeng New District will be returned to the district (new district) in full after deducting the policy rigid expenditure and land preparation investment. The policy-related rigid expenditures involved in the transfer of state-owned land use rights in Pingshan District mainly include education funds (10% of land transfer proceeds), and farmland water conservancy construction funds (10% of land transfer proceeds)
And water conservancy construction fund (3% of land transfer income). Except for the above three fund accruals, other policy-related rigid expenditures and land preparation inputs will not be considered for the time being. It is estimated that the above-mentioned four parcels of state-owned land can be used for repayment of principal and interest on the land transfer income of 3.344 billion yuan.


Table 3. Forecast of Land Transfer Revenue from 2024 to 2025 (Unit: 10,000 square meters, 10,000 yuan / square meter, 100 million yuan)


Serial number

Plot location

Way of transfer

Land use

Land area

construction area

Floor price

Land transfer income

Expected transfer time

1

Kengzi Jiedao

Listing for sale

live

1.38

6.21

2.10

10.05

2024

2

Maluan Street

Listing for sale

live

1.74

5.23

1.50

6.04

2025

business

5.23

2.30

9.27

3

Southeast corner of the intersection of Chuangjing Road and Lantian Road, Shijing Street

Listing for sale

business

0.72

1.81

1.47

2.05

2024

4

West of the junction of Jixiang Road and Lanjing Road, Hangzi Street

Listing for sale

live

0.85

3.40

2.30

6.02

2025

-

total

-

-

4.69

21.88

-

33.44

-



Source: Special Bond Implementation Plan, New Century Rating

According to the special bond implementation plan, the government will transfer the land for this project. After confirming through communication with various departments, various types of income are non-tax income, and various taxes and fees will not be considered for the time being.


Raised investment projects are planned to meet the remaining investment requirements of the project through the issuance of special bonds. The total amount of bonds issued by the project is 2.55 billion yuan. The interest rate of the current bond and subsequent bonds to be issued is calculated at 3.25% 4. Comprehensive consideration of bond repayment, government investment,
The cash inflow from land transfer will be fully paid for the 5-year special bonds issued by the project by 2025, while deducting the reserved 19 Shenzhen bonds 12 raised funds of 100 million yuan corresponding to

4 The average interest rate of the five-year Treasury note increased by 25BP in the first five trading days of the reference measurement date of the current bond (December 19, 2019).
That is 3.25%.



After the repayment of principal and interest funds between 2026 and 2034, the project's cumulative cash balance is 638 million yuan, and the project's capital coverage rate is 1.22 times. On the whole, the balance of project funds is relatively good during the duration of the planned special bonds.

5

5 In this report, the capital coverage ratio = the accumulated cash balance of the project at the end of the period / the total amount of bond repayments and debts +1. Since the cash flow measurement has reserved the principal and interest payment funds corresponding to the 15-year special bonds raised, the "bond principal and interest payments" is not included in the calculation of the coverage of capital coverage here. .


6 Affected by rounding, there is a difference between the total of the table and the single item plus the total, the same applies below.


7 Including bond issuance costs (1 ‰ of bond issuance), bond issuance registration fees (0.1 ‰ of bond issuance), bond repayment service fee (0.05 ‰ of total repayment of principal and interest), and reserved for use 19 Shenzhen Bonds 12 The principal and interest payment funds corresponding to the raised funds of 106 million yuan.


Table 4. Project cash flow simulation calculation results (Unit: 100 million yuan) 6


years

Capital inflow

Bond income

Construction investment

Expected earnings inflow

Bond repayment

Bond issue fees, etc. 7

Current project cash inflows

Cumulative cash balance of the project at the end of the period

2018 year

15.61

-

-15.61

-

-

-

0.00

0.00

2019

11.00

9.50

-20.48

-

-

-0.010450

0.00

0.00

2020

0.34

16.00

-16.00

-

-0.32

-0.017616

0.00

0.00

2021

15.84

-

-15.00

-

-0.84

-0.000042

0.00

0.00

2022

15.84

-

-15.00

-

-0.84

-0.000042

0.00

0.00

2023

9.06

-

-8.22

-

-0.84

-0.000042

0.00

0.00

2024

-

-

0.00

12.10

-9.34

-0.000467

2.76

2.76

2025

-

-

0.00

21.34

-16.66

-1.064686

3.61

6.38

total

67.67

25.50

-90.31

33.44

-28.83

-1.093345

6.38

-



Source: Special Bond Implementation Plan, New Century Rating

(IV) Risk analysis of fundraising projects

Risk analysis during construction

The water pollution environmental treatment project is huge, involving river improvement, water quality improvement, and integrated river basin management. It consumes a lot of manpower, material resources and time. Due to poor management, environmental changes, etc., there may be insufficient funds and difficulties in completing the project, which will cause the project to be postponed, the project cannot be completed on time, and the cost investment will be increased. At the same time, due to complex water conditions and difficult environmental management , there may be risks that the expected treatment effect is not achieved or the effect is not obvious. However, considering that the project construction entrusted unit is Shenzhen Pingshan District Water Authority, relevant government departments have a high degree of cooperation with the project.
Project construction risks are generally controllable.


In terms of financial risks, the water pollution treatment project is a public welfare project. The project construction is of great significance to improve the aquatic environment of the Pingshan District and increase the livability of the city. The initial financial investment for this project is 6.767 billion yuan, and this part accounts for


72.63% of the total investment of the project; the remaining part is raised through the issuance of special government bonds, and the source of project funds is more secure. Taking into account the relatively low financing cost of local government bonds, the financial burden of the project can be reduced to a certain extent.


2. Risk analysis during operation period

The debt repayment funds of this period of bonds mainly come from the land transfer income of Pingshan District generated from the investment projects.
Land transfer income is greatly affected by factors such as land transfer plans, transfer unit prices, and industry policies.

If the actual transfer unit price or transfer progress is significantly different from the expected one, it will have a certain negative impact on debt service funds. New Century Rating makes assumptions on the stress test scenario of the cash flow of debt service of the current bond based on a risk analysis of the operation period of the investment project. The new century rating mainly considers scenarios where the expected return on land sales from 2024-2025 does not meet expectations.


In the scenario where the expected return on land sales from 2024-2025 is not as expected, as shown in the table below,
Under the scenario where the expected land transfer income is 5% and 10% lower than expected, the cash balance of the project is 471 million yuan and 303 million yuan, respectively, and the capital coverage ratio is 1.16 times and 1.11 times, respectively. Generally speaking, the cash inflow of the project can withstand the pressure of income decline to a certain extent.


Table 5. Cumulative cash balance at the end of the project under the scenario of expected return decline (Unit: 100 million yuan)


years

The context of the original prediction

After income drops by 5%

After income drops by 10%

2025 balance

6.38

4.71

3.03

Fund coverage

1.22

1.16

1.11



Source: New Century rating, calculation

In addition, according to the special bond implementation plan, in order to ensure the solvency, if the land transfer income of the corresponding plot cannot cover the principal and interest repayable in the current year, the finance will arrange another fund for repayment or use the land transfer income of other plots to guarantee the debt repayment. Generally speaking, the cash inflows generated by the investment projects have a good coverage of the project's cash expenditures and the principal and interest of bond financing, and can withstand the downward pressure on income to a certain extent. The current bond income, expenditures, principal repayments and interest payments are included in the budget management of the Shenzhen Government Fund, and debt repayment guarantee is high.


3. Credit quality analysis of Shenzhen Municipal Government

(I) Shenzhen's economic strength

Shenzhen has a superior location and advantages in policy resources , and its economic development is steadily in the forefront of large and medium-sized cities in the country. The city's economic growth is mainly driven by final consumption, supplemented by net exports and fixed asset investment, and its economic development momentum is relatively balanced. In recent years, the city's innovation-driven industrial upgrading


The competitive advantage of the industry is obvious, the role of the main engine of strategic emerging industries is constantly increasing, and the economic growth potential is sufficient.


Shenzhen is the first special economic zone established since China's reform and opening up.
One of the planned cities, located in the southern part of Guangdong Province, facing Daya Bay in the east, adjacent to the Pearl River Estuary in the west, bordering with Dongguan and Huizhou in the north, and separated by Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in the south, it is the central city of the Pearl River Delta region. Excellent location. At present, the city's land area is 1997.47 square kilometers, and it has jurisdiction over Futian District, Luohu District, Yantian District, Nanshan District, Baoan District, Longgang District, Longhua District,
Pingshan District, Guangming District 8 and Dapeng New District have 10 administrative / functional areas. In 1980, Shenzhen was approved to set up a special economic zone; in 1988, Shenzhen began to implement a separate plan with provincial fiscal management authority; in 1992, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress granted Shenzhen the power to formulate local laws and regulations; in 2010, the scope of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Extend to the whole city. Overall, Shenzhen has dual status as a special economic zone and a city with a single plan, and has a prominent position in China's politics and economy.


8 According to the `` Notice of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government on the Establishment of Shenzhen Guangming District '' issued by the Guangdong Provincial Government on May 24, 2018
(Yuefuhan [2018] No. 127), the State Council agreed to establish Guangming District, with administrative areas including six streets including Guangming, Gongming, Xinhu, Fenghuang, Yutang, and Matian.


Shenzhen is a typical immigrant city with a relatively young population structure and abundant labor resources;
The industrial agglomeration and headquarters economy have significant effects, and the regional population introduction ability is strong. According to the 2016 Shenzhen Gender Statistics Report, as of the end of 2016, the city's total resident population was 1198.84
10,000 people, of which 81.1% are aged 18-64, 3.3% are aged 65 and over, which is lower than the country
With an average level of 10.8%, the government's expenditure pressure on pensions and medical security is relatively light. At the end of 2018, the city's resident population increased by 4.0% over the end of the previous year to 13.062.6 million, of which the registered population accounted for 34.9%.


Shenzhen is an important comprehensive transportation hub and border port in China, with a high level of development in highway transportation, rail transportation, aviation and shipping systems. In terms of highways, the long-distance passenger trains departing from Shenzhen currently cover cities and counties in Guangdong Province, covering more than 20 provinces, cities, and Hong Kong and Macau special administrative regions. In terms of railways, the national medium and long-term railway network plan has identified Shenzhen as a national railway hub city.
The Shenzhen area has basically formed a double cross structure with the Xiamen-Shenzhen Railway as the horizontal axis and the Beijing-Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Passenger Dedicated Line and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway as the vertical axis. The railway line basically covers major cities in South China, North China and the southeast coast. In terms of urban rail transit, as of the end of 2018, Shenzhen has opened nine rail transit lines and has formed an operating mileage of 296.72 kilometers, covering the urban rail transit operation network of Shenzhen's main development axis. In terms of aviation, Shenzhen Baoan Airport is the fourth largest airport in China.
At the same time, it is also the first modern international airport in China to achieve sea, land and air transport. In terms of shipping, Shenzhen Port currently has more than 10 shipping terminals including Shekou, Fuyong and Yantian. In 2018, the total container throughput of the port was 25.735 million TEUs. An increase of 2.1% year-on-year.



Thanks to innovation-driven industrial transformation and upgrading, Shenzhen's economy has maintained high-quality growth in recent years.
The level of economic development steadily ranks at the forefront of large and medium cities in the country. From 2016 to 2018, Shenzhen's regional GDP reached 2.01 trillion yuan, 2.25 trillion yuan, and 2.42 trillion yuan. In 2018, the regional GDP still ranked third in the large and medium-sized cities in the Mainland; the year-on-year growth rates were 9.1. %, 8.8%, and 7.6%,
They were 2.4, 1.9, and 1.0 percentage points higher than the national level in the same period. In 2018, Shenzhen's per capita regional GDP reached 189,600 yuan, which was 2.93 times the per capita GDP, ranking first among the four first-tier cities in the country.


Figure 6. Comparison of major economic indicators between Shenzhen and the country and other cities in 2018


index

2018 year

2018 year

Shenzhen

Nationwide

Proportion

Beijing

Shanghai

Guangzhou

Regional GDP (100 million yuan)

24221.98

900309.5

2.69%

30320.0

32679.9

22859.4

Of which: added value of the secondary industry

9961.95

366000.9

2.72%

5647.7

9732.5

6234.1

Tertiary industry added value

14237.94

469574.6

3.03%

24553.6

22843.0

16401.8

Growth rate of regional GDP (%)

7.6

6.6

-

6.6

6.6

6.2



Source: Website of National and Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, New Century Ratings

Table 7. Main economic indicators and growth rate of Shenzhen since 2016 (Unit: 100 million yuan,%)


index

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

Amount

Increase

Amount

Increase

Amount

Increase

Gross Regional Product 9

20079.70

9.1

22490.06

8.8

24221.98

7.6

Added value of the primary industry

8.28

-0.4

19.57

27.0

22.09

3.9

Added value of the secondary industry

8310.65

8.1

9318.10

9.2

9961.95

9.3

Tertiary industry added value

11760.77

9.9

13152.39

8.4

14237.94

6.4

GDP per capita (10,000 yuan)

17.25

3.8

18.35

3.9

18.96

3.2

Per capita disposable income of residents

4.87

-

5.29

-

5.75

8.7

The total retail sales of social consumer goods

5512.76

8.1

6016.19

9.1

6168.87

7.6

Investment in fixed assets

4078.16

23.6

5147.32

23.8

6191.01

20.6

Total imports and exports (100 million US dollars) 10

3984.39

-9.9

4141.46

3.9

29983.74

7.0



9 Since 2017, research and development (R & D) expenditure has been included in the GDP calculation. The Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2018 has adjusted the regional GDP in the previous year accordingly. The adjusted value is used in this report. In addition, in 2017, the Shenzhen-Shandong Special Cooperation Zone was included in the Shenzhen GDP calculation.


10 The total value of imports and exports in 2018 is 100 million yuan, and the growth rate is the year-on-year growth rate in RMB terms.


Source: Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2018, Shenzhen December 2018 Statistical Indicators, and 2018 Shenzhen National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, sorted by the New Century

Shenzhen's industry is dominated by advanced manufacturing and modern service industries. In recent years, the city's industrial economy and modern service industry have maintained rapid growth. In 2018, the added value of the secondary and tertiary industries in the city was 1.00 trillion yuan and 1.42 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3% and 6.4%. With


On the whole, the city's industrial high-end development momentum is good, and the total value added of advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industry accounts for the largest value added of industrial enterprises above designated size in Guangdong Province. In 2018, the city's advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries achieved 656.483 billion yuan and 613.120 billion yuan in added value, respectively.
Year-on-year growth of 12.0% and 13.3%, respectively, the growth rate is higher than the city's industrial added value above designated size
2.5% and 3.8%, accounting for 70.94% of the total industrial added value and
66.25%. As for the service industry, the development of the city's service industries above the designated size includes leasing and business services,
The Internet and related services, software and information technology services industries are mainly dominated by a good development trend, 2018
The annual added value of the city's modern service industry was 1.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%.


From the perspective of the economic development dynamics structure, Shenzhen has formed a balanced economic development dynamics structure with final consumption as the mainstay, supplemented by net exports and fixed asset investment, with stable economic development. In the past two years, the city's final consumption rate and capital formation rate have remained at approximately 41% and 34%, respectively.
The momentum of economic development is relatively balanced.


Table 8. Composition of Shenzhen GDP by Expenditure Method (Unit:%)




Note: Organized and plotted according to the 2018 Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook

With the improvement of residents' living standards and the introduction of policies to expand domestic demand, Shenzhen's total consumption has continued to increase in recent years, and the final consumption has contributed significantly to the regional economy. From 2016 to 2018, the per capita disposable income of Shenzhen residents was 48,700 yuan, 52,900 yuan and 57,500 yuan, respectively, and the regional residents' consumption power was strong. The total retail sales of consumer goods during the same period were 551.276 billion yuan,
6016.19 billion yuan and 616.887 billion yuan, mainly retail sales in the wholesale and retail trade. In addition, the rapid development of new consumer formats and other driving forces for consumption growth continue to increase. In 2017, the city's e-commerce transaction volume reached 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1% 11.


11 The data comes from the Shenzhen White Paper on E-Commerce Development 2017.


C: \ Users \ wjr \ AppData \ Local \ Temp \ WeChat Files \ 8d314aedc8a291abb3b74639602fe1d.png
Shenzhen's fixed asset investment is dominated by the tertiary industry. The scale of investment has expanded in recent years.
The growth rate is maintained at a high level, private investment is active, continuous investment in research and development, and investment structure is constantly optimized. In 2018, the city's investment in fixed assets was 619.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%.
Among them, the investment in the tertiary industry increased by 23.4%. From the perspective of specific industry investment, the real estate industry, manufacturing and water conservancy, environment and public facilities management industries are the main investment directions, of which real estate


Project development investment accounts for a relatively large amount, and investment scale has maintained rapid growth in recent years. In 2018, the city's real estate development investment increased by 23.6% year-on-year. Benefiting from an open economic policy environment, Shenzhen's private investment is active.In 2018, private investment increased by 12.5% year-on-year, higher than the national level of 3.8
Percentage points.


In terms of foreign economy, in 2016, due to factors such as slowing market demand in Europe and the United States, increasing downward pressure on the economy, and the relocation of production capacity of some enterprises, Shenzhen's total import and export volume showed negative growth. The total amount is recovering. Overall,
The contribution of total net exports of goods and services to economic growth has declined in recent years. 2016-
In 2017, Shenzhen's total import and export volume was US $ 398.439 billion and US $ 414.146 billion, respectively. During the same period, the foreign trade dependence of trade 12 was 131.80% and 124.33%, and the economy was highly dependent on foreign trade.

Since 2017, Shenzhen's labor-intensive industries such as processing and assembly of imported materials and processing of imported materials have continued to decline in the proportion of total foreign trade exports, and the trade structure has continued to improve. In 2017, the total import and export value of processing trade in the city's total foreign trade exports was 84.241 billion US dollars, accounting for 34.47% of the total foreign trade exports. Affected by the rapid increase in the scale of imports, Shenzhen's total import and export volume in 2018 was 2,988.374 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0% over the previous year.


12 Dependence on foreign trade = total imports and exports * average exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar in that year / regional GDP * 100%.


From the perspective of the development of pillar industries, the current pillar industries in Shenzhen are high-tech industry, financial industry, logistics industry and cultural industry. In 2018, the four pillar industries achieved a total added value of 1.55.
Trillion yuan. In terms of high-tech industries, Shenzhen has formed a high-tech industrial cluster dominated by the electronic information industry , and has become an important base for the industrialization of high-tech achievements in China. In 2018,
The city's high-tech industry added value of 829.663 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year, making it the city's largest pillar industry.金融业方面,深圳市金融业集聚区包括福田、罗湖、
前海深港现代服务业合作区(以下简称“前海合作区”)等,其中前海合作区将打造我国金融业对外开放试验示范窗口。2018年全市金融业增加值为3067.21亿元,同比增长3.6%;当年金融业对全市税收的贡献率为22.37%,高于制造业(20.30%),成为全市纳税第一的产业。现代物流业方面,依托优越的地理位置、完善的基础设施及发达的腹地经济,
深圳市现代物流产业得到高效率的发展,目前主要物流产业园区包括前海湾保税物流园区、盐田物流园区、大空港航空物流园、平湖物流基地、
华南物流园等,全国80%以上的供应链管理公司总部聚集在深圳,涌现了顺丰、 怡亚通等代表性物流上市公司。文化产业方面,深圳是全国第一个获得联合国教科文组织“设计之都”称号的城市,工业设计、平面设计等设计产业全国领先,深圳市知名文化产业企业包括腾讯、迅雷、
华强文化科技、嘉兰图设计等。2018年全市实现文化及相关产业增加值


1560.52亿元,同比增长6.3%。


近年来战略性新兴产业对深圳市经济增长拉动作用进一步凸显,主引擎作用更加突出。深圳市已成为国内战略性新兴产业规模最大、集聚性最强的城市,其中新一代信息技术产业和文化创意产业发展规模相对较大。2018年,全市七大战略性新兴产业13实现增加值9155.18亿元,
较上年增长9.1%,占全市地区生产总值的37.80%,其中新一代信息技术产业增加值4772.02亿元,同比增长10.9%;数字经济产业增加值
1240.73亿元,同比增长3.8%; 高端装备制造产业增加值1065.82亿元,
同比增长10.7%。此外,深圳市未来产业超前布局,目前已形成包括机器人、可穿戴设备和智能装备产业、海洋产业、航空航天及生命健康产业等四大未来产业,其中智能装备制造业2018年产值5000亿元左右。

随着未来产业的逐步发展壮大,将形成新的经济增长点。


13 深圳市七大战略性新兴产业包括新一代信息技术产业、数字经济产业、 高端装备制造产业、
绿色低碳产业、海洋经济产业、新材料产业和生物医药产业。


14 本报告中,财政收入合计=一般公共预算收入总计+政府性基金预算收入总计+国有资本经营

根据深圳市“十三五”规划,中长期内深圳市将突出创新驱动、发展新动能,努力将深圳市建设成为国际领先的创新型城市、全国经济中心城市。从发展战略看,2016年国家“十三五”规划纲要将深圳确立为国际科技、产业创新中心;2017年全国海洋经济发展“十三五”规划提出将深圳建设为全球海洋中心城市;2019年粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要提出发挥深圳作为经济特区、全国性经济中心城市和国家创新型城市的引领作用,加快建成现代化国际化城市,努力成为具有世界影响力的创新创意之都。作为战略枢纽城市,随着“ 一带一路 ”、“海洋强国”、粤港澳大湾区、创新型国家等国家战略的推进,深圳未来发展前景良好。


(二)深圳市财政实力

深圳市财力规模雄厚,且主要来自一般公共预算,财力较稳健。得益于高成长性企业集聚发展,深圳市产业经济创税能力强,近年来全市一般公共预算收入保持较快增长,收入质量及持续性好。深圳市政府性基金预算收入以国有土地使用权出让收入为主,对地方财力形成一定补充,近年来规模较为稳定。总体看,深圳市财政收支平衡能力强,对上级补助收入依赖度低。


深圳市地方财政收入主要来自一般公共预算收入,近年来全市财政实力保持较高水平,2016-2018年全市财政收入合计14分别为7402.13亿


预算收入总计。


元、7164.04亿元和6894.27亿元,受一般公共预算中调入资金及调入预算调节稳定基金规模同比减少影响,2018年深圳市财政收入合计同比略降3.77%,近三年一般公共预算收入总计占比维持在75%以上。深圳市政府性基金预算收入总计占地方财力比重较低,2016-2018年平均占比为21.9%,政府性基金预算收入的波动对深圳市整体财政实力的影响程度相对有限,地方财力较稳健。


图表9. 深圳市财政收入构成(单位:亿元)


index

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

Citywide

市本级

Citywide

市本级

Citywide

市本级

财政收入合计

7402.13

5009.39

7164.04

4779.13

6894.27

4713.26

一般公共预算收入总计

5673.67

3454.85

5611.52

3370.04

5265.92

3239.03

其中:一般公共预算收入

3136.49

1995.95

3332.13

2086.76

3538.44

2190.13

Higher subsidy income

232.42

232.42

290.95

290.95

286.81

286.81

政府性基金预算收入总计

1639.66

1476.51

1489.98

1356.48

1562.95-

1419.08

其中:政府性基金预算收入

966.40

956.02

1029.95

1026.50

964.64

962.53

Higher subsidy income

5.54

5.54

5.17

5.17

5.87

5.86

国有资本经营预算收入总计

88.80

78.03

62.53

52.61

65.40

55.15

其中:国有资本经营预算收入

67.59

59.30

38.94

35.44

46.63

40.83



资料来源:深圳市财政局

与经济发展水平相适应,深圳市一般公共预算收入在全国计划单列市中处于领先水平。近年来得益于经济发展质量和效益持续提高,全市一般公共预算收入保持较快增长。2016-2018年深圳市一般公共预算收入分别为3136.49亿元、3332.13亿元和3538.44亿元,同比分别增长
15.02%、6.24%和6.19%,受全面“营改增”以及中央地方收入划分调整,同时落实各项减税降费政策措施等因素影响,增速趋缓。考虑到调入资金、上年结余及省补助计划单列市收入等因素,2016-2018年全市一般公共预算收入总计分别为5673.67亿元、5611.52亿元和5262.92亿元。


具体来看,税收收入是深圳市一般公共预算收入主要构成,主要税源行业为制造业、金融、房地产、租赁和商务服务业等。2016-2018年税收比率分别为79.35%、79.68%和81.95%,收入质量及持续性好。分税种看,全市税收收入以增值税、企业所得税和个人所得税为主,2018
年上述三项税种收入合计为2101.02亿元,占税收收入的72.46%,全市税源结构较稳健。深圳市非税收入主要来自专项收入和国有资源(资产)
有偿使用收入,规模易受政策因素影响,2018年非税收入同比下降5.67%


至638.81亿元,主要系国有资源(资产)有偿使用收入大幅缩减所致。

近年来全市一般公共预算上级补助收入规模相对较稳定,但全市产业创税能力较强,一般公共预算财力对上级补助收入依赖度低。2016-2018年上级补助收入占一般公共预算收入总计的比重在4.1%-5.4%之间。


图表10. 2016-2018年深圳市全市一般公共预算收入构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

税收收入

2488.88

2654.89

2899.63

主要科目:营业税

363.94

-

-

VAT

650.95

991.28

1046.97

corporate income tax

569.52

667.85

680.62

Personal Income Tax

304.75

334.33

373.43

非税收入

647.61

677.24

638.81

主要科目:专项收入

382.34

372.13

389.17

Income from paid use of state-owned resources (assets)

109.82

155.19

90.42

一般公共预算收入合计

3136.49

3332.13

3538.44

Higher subsidy income

232.42

290.95

286.81

省补助计划单列市收入

28.93

17.17

32.50

Last year balance

178.79

164.46

135.70

Transfer to the Budget Stability Adjustment Fund

861.33

1001.34

735.77

Transfer funds

1235.70

805.47

523.70

债务收入

0.00

0.00

13.00

一般公共预算收入总计

5673.67

5611.52

5265.92



资料来源:深圳市财政局

深圳市一般公共预算支出主要集中于城乡社区、交通运输、住房保障等方面,近年来全市持续加大民生保障和改善力度,一般公共预算支出规模快速增长,2016-2018年分别为4211.04亿元、4593.80亿元和
4282.56亿元,其中刚性支出占比分别为27.15%、33.60%和39.99%,一般公共预算支出弹性相对较好。2018年全市对城乡社区事务、交通运输以及住房保障等九大类民生领域15支出累计投入2772.29亿元,占一般公共预算支出的64.73%,重点民生支出得到有效保障。2016-2018年全市一般公共预算自给率16分别为74.48%、72.54%和82.62%,一般公共预算收入对其支出覆盖程度水平较高。总体看,在综合考虑调入资金、
预算稳定调节基金、上年结余等情况下,深圳市一般公共预算财政平衡能力好。


15 九大民生领域为教育、文化体育与传媒、社会保障和就业、医疗卫生、节能环保、城乡社区事务、农林水事务、交通运输以及住房保障。


16 一般公共预算自给率=一般公共预算收入/一般公共预算支出*100%。



图表11. 2016-2018年深圳市全市一般公共预算支出构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

主要支出科目:







刚性支出17

1143.18

1543.69

1712.44

Urban and rural community expenditure

558.49

982.96

821.36

Expenditure for resources exploration information

560.02

221.64

118.25

交通运输支出

450.89

318.27

226.68

Housing security expenditure

426.09

556.55

263.22

一般公共预算支出合计

4211.04

4593.80

4282.56

主要科目:







Higher level expenditure

71.98

75.48

73.79

Debt repayment expenses

11.00

26.00

23.00

Arrange budget stabilization funds

1010.31

615.20

616.84

计划单列市上解省支出

144.85

153.23

151.26

Year-end balance

164.46

135.70

116.20

其中:结转下年支出

164.46

135.70

116.20

一般公共预算支出总计

5673.67

5611.52

5265.92



17 本报告中,刚性支出指一般公共服务、公共安全、教育、社会保障和就业、医疗卫生和计划生育五项支出。


资料来源:深圳市财政局

深圳市政府性基金预算收入以国有土地使用权出让收入为主,易受房地产市场行情及土地出让进度等因素影响,近年来规模保持相对稳定,
2016-2018年分别为966.40亿元、1029.95亿元和964.64亿元,同比增速分别为0.25%、6.58%和-6.34%,受国有土地使用权出让收入减少影响,2018年政府性基金预算收入略有下滑。


图表12. 2016-2018年深圳市政府性基金预算收入构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

主要科目:国有土地使用权出让收入

896.61

960.72

898.24

政府性基金预算收入合计

966.40

1029.95

964.64

Higher subsidy income

5.54

5.17

5.87

省补助计划单列市收入

0.78

0.95

1.05

Last year balance

666.92

433.81

551.92

Transfer funds

0.02

0.11

0.08

债务收入

-

20.00

39.40

政府性基金预算收入总计

1639.66

1489.98

1562.95



资料来源:深圳市财政局

深圳市政府性基金预算支出集中于以国有土地使用权出让收入安


排支出为主的城乡社区事务支出,2016-2018年分别为413.75亿元、
537.04亿元和637.44亿元,其中城乡社区事务支出占比维持在90%以上。近年来政府性基金预算收入能够完全覆盖其支出,且覆盖情况较好。

由于政府性基金结转规模超过当年收入30%的部分,按规定调出至一般公共预算安排,故调出资金规模相对较大。


图表13. 2016-2018年深圳市政府性基金预算支出构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

主要科目:城乡社区事务

398.62

502.25

581.24

政府性基金预算支出合计

413.75

537.04

637.44

Transfer funds

792.10

401.03

418.86

Year-end balance

433.81

551.92

506.64

政府性基金预算支出总计

1639.66

1489.98

1562.95



资料来源:深圳市财政局

深圳市国有资本经营预算收入主要由国有独资公司上缴的利润收入和国有控股公司的股利股息收入构成。2016-2018年分别为67.59亿元、38.94亿元和46.63亿元,其中2017年同比下降42.38%,主要系国有控股及参股企业股利、股息收入大幅减少等所致。同期,全市国有资本经营预算支出分别为54.73亿元、41.18亿元和38.26亿元,主要为国有企业资本金注入产生的支出。考虑到上年结余,调出资金、年终结余等因素,近年来深圳市国有资本经营预算平衡能力较好。


(三)深圳市政府债务状况

深圳市地方财政实力强,城镇化发展水平高,自身财政盈余基本能够满足基础设施建设等财政支出需求,政府举债规模小。近年来债务规模保持较低水平,政府债务负担轻。


近年来,深圳市政府债务规模保持较低水平,政府债务负担轻。截至2018年末,深圳市政府性债务余额为146.27亿元,较2017年末增加27.49亿元,主要为当年新增的专项债券。从债务类型看,全市政府债务(即政府负有偿还责任的债务)余额为145.92亿元,可能承担一定救助责任的债务余额0.35亿元,全部为深圳大学城学生公寓建设贷款;
无政府负有担保责任的债务。分层级看,深圳市政府负有偿还责任的债务集中于市本级,2018年末深圳市本级(不含新区)政府债务余额93.92
亿元,为历年发行政府债券、国债转贷和地方政府专项债券余额;区级政府债务为52.00亿元。



图表14. 近年来深圳市政府性债务情况(单位:亿元)


债务类型

2016年末

2017年末

2018年末

政府负有偿还责任的债务

127.95

117.24

145.92

政府负有担保责任的债务

0.00

0.00

0.00

政府可能承担一定救助责任的债务

1.83

1.54

0.35



资料来源:深圳市财政局

债务限额方面,经国务院批准,2018年财政部核定深圳市地方政府债务限额为384.5亿元(一般债务限额313.6亿元,专项债务限额70.9
亿元18);截至2018年末,深圳市地方政府债务余额为145.92亿元,距财政部核定的限额仍有较大的空间。根据《关于深圳市2018年本级第一次预算调整方案的报告》,财政部下达深圳市2019年地方政府债务限额为698.5亿元,其中新增地方政府债务限额314亿元(包括一般债务限额11亿元,专项债务限额303亿元)。截至2019年9月末,深圳市政府债务余额459.91亿元,全部为地方政府债券余额及国债转贷余额。


18 财政部原下达深圳市专项债务限额为241.5亿元,2018年12月,财政部根据党中央、国务院关于加快专项债务发行和使用的要求,收回深圳市暂未使用的新增专项债务限额170.6亿元,
并对收回额度在全国进行重新分配。


总体看,深圳市地方财政实力强,城镇化发展水平高,自身财政盈余基本能够满足城市基础设施建设及公益性项目建设等财政支出需求,
政府举债规模小,总体债务偿付压力轻。


(四)深圳市政府治理状况

近年来深圳市财税体制和债务管控机制不断完善;全市行政审批制度改革不断深化,政府运行效率与服务能力持续提高;同时,政府信息公开工作有序推进,政府信息透明度较高,地方政府管理状况良好。


深圳市作为我国改革开放的窗口,在国家财政体制改革方面拥有先行先试的优势。1997年,深圳市率先在全国推行以属地征收、分税分成为核心内容的市区分税制财政体制改革,规范了市区财政分配机制,对促进全市经济社会发展和财政收入增长起到了重要作用。近年来深圳市持续对地方财政体制进行改革与优化,目前已实施四轮市区财政体制,
其中第四轮市区财政体制自2011年起实施,至2015年期满,以财权事权下沉、促进特区一体化发展为目标,体制运行期间财政收入保持较快增长,特区一体化保障水平显著提高。


随着中央财税体制改革的加快,深圳市强区放权等决策部署逐步落


实,市区两级间的事权、财权和支出责任划分持续完善。2016年,深圳市制定了第五轮市区财政体制方案,按照事权和支出责任相匹配的原则,
落实强区放权,进一步加大力度向区下放事权和财力,更好调动区级积极性,提升基层治理能力和财政保障能力。同时深圳市持续推进预算管理改革,进一步编细编实部门预算,2016年市本级财政专项资金、政府性基金和政府投资资金分类分步纳入部门预算管理;国库改革向纵深推进,2016年市本级实现国库集中支付全覆盖;此外,全市制定出台了《深圳市实行中期财政规划管理实施方案》,跨年度预算平衡机制进一步完善。2017年深圳市深入实施第五轮市区财政体制,大力推动事权与支出责任划分改革,推进管理重心和财力下移,增强区级财力保障和基本公共服务供给能力。2018年,深圳市实施第五轮市区财政体制中期调整,按照基本公共服务均等化的要求,进一步完善权责清晰、财力协调、
区域均衡的市区财政体制;同时推动深汕特别合作区财政体制调整平稳落地实施。


自国务院发布《国务院关于加强地方政府性债务管理的意见》(国发[2014]43号)以来,深圳市按照财政部要求做好政府性债务统计和分析工作,动态掌握全市债务情况,政府性债务管理工作持续深入,对债务风险及时评判,对超过或者接近风险线的辖区给予预警;持续完善政府性债务管理体系,债券资金的发行和偿还已明确纳入预算管理,同时持续推进债务风险预警方案的制定工作。 2016年深圳市制订了《深圳市地方政府性债务风险应急处置预案》,对债务风险事件建立分级响应机制,实施分类应急处置,进一步健全政府性债务风险管理机制。 2017 year
6月财政部发布《财政部关于试点发展项目收益与融资自求平衡的地方政府专项债券品种的通知》(财预[2017]89号),鼓励按照地方政府性基金收入项目分类发行专项债券,为此深圳市不断完善专项债券管理,在严格将专项债券发行与项目一一对应的基础上,加快实现债券资金使用与项目管理、偿债责任相匹配,以及债券期限与项目期限相匹配。 2017
年12月深圳市制定了《深圳市轨道交通项目专项债券管理办法(试行)》,
首次规范了轨道交通项目专项债券的偿债来源、额度管理、预算编制等内容。2018年8月,深圳市成立政府性债务管理领导小组,负责统筹、
领导全市政府性债务和隐性债务管理,同时负责组织、协调、指挥风险事件的应对工作。2018年10月,深圳市印发《关于进一步深化预算管理改革强化预算绩效管理的意见》,通过转变理财用财理念、巩固强化预算管理主体责任、深化预算编制改革等措施进一步深化预算管理改革。

同期,深圳市印发《深圳市市级财政专项资金管理办法》,加强和规范


市级财政专项资金的管理,提高财政专项资金的使用效益。


深圳市作为改革开放的前沿城市,在政策试点和体制改革等方面承担更多任务,十八届三中全会以来深圳市主动承接中央和省多项改革试点,近年来重点领域和关键环节改革取得重大进展,2017年深圳市出台基础设施供给侧结构性改革方案,制定深化国有企业改革方案及配套政策;推进财政预算管理改革,以项目库为重点编早编细编实年度预算。

此外深圳市政府逐步推进强区放权,以简政放权提高供给效率,不断深化行政审批制度改革,2017年取消、下放175项市级行政职权,政府运行效率与服务能力持续提高。根据《深圳市2017年改革计划》,深圳市重点推进涉及经济体制、生态文明体制、民主政治、文化体制、社会和司法体制、党建、纪检等七大领域的27项重点改革,其中包括“继续深化强区放权改革”、“构建财权事权相匹配的市区财政体制改革”等推进体制机制创新条款,涉及推进市级部门的简政放权,强化区级统、执行筹能力、优化权责匹配;构建财权与事权相匹配的市区财政体制等内容。


近年来深圳市政府主动通过各大渠道公开政府信息情况,信息透明度较高。深圳市政府通过完善政府信息公开制度、深化重点领域信息公开、加强政府信息供给的平台支撑等方面推进信息公开工作。制度方面,
2015年深圳市政府起草完成《深圳市政府信息公开规定(修订草案送审稿)》,2016年出台了《深圳市人民政府重大行政决策程序规定》,2018
年制定《深圳市人民政府办公厅关于进一步做好政务公开工作的通知》,
结合深圳实际加强政务公开队伍建设,信息公开制度逐步完善。内容保障方面,深圳市积极推进行政权力运行信息公开,制定全市统一的行政审批事项目录,全面启动权责清单编制专项工作,并通过编制、公布并动态更新政府信息公开指南和政府信息公开目录,逐步推进财政资金、
公共资源、重大建设项目等重点领域信息公开。平台支撑方面,近年来深圳市充分发挥“深圳政府在线”网站的信息公开“第一平台”作用,
以“深圳微博发布厅”新浪微博、“深圳发布”微信公众号、“i深圳”

政务服务客户端为龙头,着力打造全市政务新媒体矩阵,完善政府信息主动公开目录,全面规范公开政府文件信息。2018年全市各级行政机关全年主动公开政府信息117.60万条,涉及机构职能类、法规文件类、业务动态类、行政执法类、办事指南类等多项内容。同时全市加强政府信息供给的平台支撑,政府可通过网站、微博、微信等不同渠道和方式公开政府信息情况,2018年政府公报发布信息1267条,政府网站公开信


息92.99万条,微博微信公开信息15.70万条,通过报刊、广播、电视等其他方式公开信息8.79万条。


四、 结论

深圳市具有优越的区位及政策资源优势 ,经济发展水平稳居全国大中城市前列。近年来以创新驱动产业升级,全市产业结构持续优化,支柱产业竞争优势明显,经济增长后劲充足。得益于良好的经济基础,深圳市财力雄厚,财力结构较稳健,财政平衡能力强。近年来,深圳市政府性债务规模较小,债务偿付压力轻。且深圳市不断完善财税体制和债务管控机制,政府运行效率与财政管理服务能力持续提高,政府信息透明度较高,地方政府管理状况良好。


本期债券为新增债券,募集资金拟专项用于坪山区水污染治理项目,
偿债资金来源于坪山区土地出让收入。在债券存续期内募投项目预计可产生的现金流入能够覆盖对应支出,且有一定规模的现金结余。本期债券收入、支出、还本、付息等纳入深圳市政府性基金预算管理。总体看,本期债券偿债保障高。



跟踪评级安排

根据政府业务主管部门要求以及对地方债信用评级的指导意见,在本次评级的信用等级有效期【至2020年深圳市(坪山区)水污染治理专项债券(一期)-2020年深圳市政府专项债券(二十期)的约定偿付日止】内,
本评级机构将对其进行持续跟踪评级,包括持续定期跟踪评级与不定期跟踪评级。


跟踪评级期间,本评级机构将持续关注深圳市经济金融环境的变化、
影响财政平衡能力的重大事件、深圳市政府履行债务的情况等因素,并出具跟踪评级报告,以动态地反映深圳市地方政府债券的信用状况。


(一) 跟踪评级时间和内容


本评级机构对本期债券的跟踪评级的期限为本评级报告出具日至失效日。


定期跟踪评级将在本次信用评级报告出具后每1年出具一次正式的定期跟踪评级报告。定期跟踪评级报告与首次评级报告保持衔接,如定期跟踪评级报告与上次评级报告在结论或重大事项出现差异的,本评级机构将作特别说明,并分析原因。


不定期跟踪评级自本次评级报告出具之日起进行。在发生可能影响本次评级报告结论的重大事项时,深圳市政府应根据已作出的书面承诺及时告知本评级机构相应事项。本评级机构及评级人员将密切关注与深圳市有关的信息,在认为必要时及时安排不定期跟踪评级并调整或维持原有信用级别。


(二) 跟踪评级程序


跟踪评级将按照收集评级所需资料、现场调研、评级分析、评级委员会评审、出具评级报告、公告等程序进行。


本评级机构的跟踪评级报告和评级结果将对业务主管部门及业务主管部门要求的披露对象进行披露。


在持续跟踪评级报告出具之日后五个工作日内,深圳市政府和本评级机构应在业务主管部门指定媒体及本评级机构的网站上公布持续跟踪评级结果。





附录一



本期债券募投项目子工程概况(单位:亿元)

Serial number

project name

建设投资估算

1

坪山区“正本清源”工程

15.15

2

坪山区坑梓街道老坑社区污水支管网工程

6.48

3

坪山区六联社区污水支管网工程

3.30

4

坪山区坪环社区污水支管网工程

1.82

5

坪山区坪山街道竹坑石井片区污水支管网工程

1.82

6

坪山区坪山街道沙壆社区污水支管网工程

1.80

7

坪山区汤坑、沙湖社区污水支管网工程

1.75

8

坪山区江岭社区污水支管网工程

1.73

9

坪山区碧岭社区污水支管网工程

1.67

10

坪山区龙田社区污水支管网工程

1.27

11

坪山区沙田社区污水支管网工程

1.22

12

坪山区金沙社区污水支管网工程

1.13

13

坪山区坑梓办事处秀新社区污水支管网工程

0.17

14

坪山区消防管网及消火栓建设工程

0.11

15

坪山区社区供水管网改造工程(二期)

0.41

16

坪山区社区供水管网改造工程(三期)

0.66

17

坪山区社区供水管网改造工程(四期)

0.37

18

坪山区社区供水管网改造工程(五期)

0.04

19

坪山区社区供水管网改造工程(六期)

0.32

20

坪山区社区供水管网改造工程(七期)

0.56

twenty one

坪山区社区供水管网改造工程(八期)

0.22

twenty two

坪山河流域水环境综合整治工程—坪山河综合整治工程(调蓄池及配套工程)

0.20

twenty three

坪山河流域水环境综合整治工程—坪山河干流(老河道)清淤工程

0.07

twenty four

坪山河流域水环境综合整治工程-景观工程

0.51

25

坪山河流域水环境综合整治工程-三洲田水综合整治工程

0.13

26

坪山河流域水环境综合整治工程-坪山河干流大工业区裁弯段综合整治工程

0.07

27

坪山河流域水环境综合整治工程—墩子河综合整治工程

0.13

28

坪山河流域水环境综合整治工程—赤坳河综合整治工程

1.15

29

坪山河流域水环境综合整治工程--碧岭水综合整治工程

0.72

30

坪山河流域水环境综合整治工程-汤坑水综合整治工程

0.75

31

坪山河流域水环境综合整治工程-石溪河综合整治工程

1.37

32

龙岗河下游(田坑水片区)排涝工程

1.09

33

田头河综合整治工程(一期)

1.54

34

深圳市坪山区田脚水综合整治工程

1.69

35

龙岗河流域水环境综合整治工程—三角楼水综合整治工程

1.50

36

花鼓坪水黑臭水体整治工程

1.22

37

坪山区龙岗河深惠插花地河道张河沥、马蹄沥综合整治工程(一期)

1.23

38

坪山区龙岗河深惠插花地河道(张河沥、马蹄沥)综合整治工程(二期工程)

0.21




Serial number

project name

建设投资估算

39

坪山区龙岗河深惠插花地河道张河沥、马蹄沥综合整治工程(三期)

0.27

40

龙岗河流域短小支流综合整治工程—老鸦山水库排洪渠综合整治工程

0.38

41

石井排洪渠综合整治工程

0.32

42

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程一期—三洋湖排洪渠(人民医院段)综合整治工程

0.64

43

麻雀坑水综合整治工程

0.56

44

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程—正坑村排洪渠分洪箱涵工程

0.31

45

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-中芯国际深度处理(二期)尾水补水工程

0.41

46

龙岗河流域短小支流综合整治工程—坪梓路北侧181号水塘等19个项目

0.07

47

龙岗河流域短小支流综合整治工程—卢屋排洪渠等13个项目

0.09

48

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-红花潭排水渠(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.12

49

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-沙湖社区排水渠(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.12

50

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-六联浪尾排洪渠(设计采购施工项目总承包)

2.86

51

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-飞西北路38号水塘等
19个项目(设计采购施工项目总承包)

1.27

52

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-大山陂水库排洪渠等27
个项目(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.95

53

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-上坝村排洪渠(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.39

54

横塘水生态海绵综合示范区工程

0.51

55

坪山区暗(涵)渠严重安全隐患修复工程

0.19

56

坪山河三洲水上游段综合整治工程

0.29

57

坪山区2014年度排水管网雨污分流改造工程

0.23

58

坪山区2013年度排水管网雨污分流改造工程

0.01

59

张河沥下游支流截污工程

0.06

60

金辉路(锦绣东路—丹梓中路段)污水管道改造工程

0.04

61

坪山区优质饮用水入户工程(2013年)

0.20

62

沙田片区(上廖)综合整治工程—排水沟修建工程

0.92

63

深圳市坪山区上洋污水厂配套管网接驳完善工程

0.12

64

麻雀坑水临时排洪渠工程

0.61

65

坪山区第二批小型水库除险加固工程

0.69

66

Reconstruction of old municipal pipe network in Pingshan District

1.22

67

坪山区红花岭水库至赤坳桥引水工程

0.88

68

坪山区水库群安全隐患排查及综合整治工程

4.39

69

坪山区赤坳水库水质保障工程

0.40

70

田头河综合整治工程

0.54

71

坪山区赤坳河湿地公园项目

1.84

72

石井排洪渠综合整治工程(二期)

0.11

73

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-大山陂水(设计采购施工项目总承包)

3.50




Serial number

project name

建设投资估算

74

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-新村排洪渠(箱涵段)
(设计采购施工项目总承包)

1.02

75

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-竹坑排洪渠(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.16

76

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-马鞍岭村排洪渠(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.20

77

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-担水坑水(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.02

78

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-水打田水(上游段)
(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.05

79

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-沙湖新屋排洪渠(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.16

80

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-珠洋坑排洪渠(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.002

81

坪山河流域短小支流综合整治工程-汤坑小学排洪渠(设计采购施工项目总承包)

0.29

82

龙岗河流域短小支流综合整治工程—西坑排洪渠综合整治工程

0.04

83

龙岗河流域短小支流综合整治工程—三角楼居民小组排洪渠工程

4.97

84

龙岗河流域短小支流综合整治工程—塘外口水库排洪渠综合整治工程

2.10

85

龙岗河流域短小支流综合整治工程—大窝恒杨厂边排洪渠综合整治工程

0.13

86

田脚水(涉厦深高铁桥墩)箱涵改造工程

0.06

-

total

90.31



资料来源:专项债券实施方案,新世纪评级整理








附录二:

评级结果释义

根据财政部《关于做好2015年地方政府专项债券发行工作的通知》,地方政府专项债券信用评级等级符号及含义如下:

grade

meaning

AAA级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极好,
偿还债务的能力极强,基本不受不利经济环境的影响,违约风险极低。


AA级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况很好,
偿还债务的能力很强,受不利经济环境的影响不大,违约风险很低。


Class A

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况较好,
偿还债务能力较强,较易受不利经济环境的影响,违约风险较低。


BBB级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况一般,
偿还债务能力一般,受不利经济环境影响较大,违约风险一般。


BB级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况较差,
偿还债务能力较弱,受不利经济环境影响很大,违约风险较高。


Class B

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况很差,
偿还债务的能力较大地依赖于良好的经济环境,违约风险很高。


CCC级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,
偿还债务的能力极度依赖于良好的经济环境,违约风险极高。


CC级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,
基本不能偿还债务。


Class C

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,
不能偿还债务。




注:AAA级可用“-”符号进行微调,表示信用等级略低于本等级;AA级至B级可用“+”或“-”符号进行微调,表示信用等级略高于或低于本等级。































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