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Local Government Bond Announcement: 2020 Shenzhen (this level) airport special bond (Phase I)-2020 Shenzhen Government special bond (Phase II) credit rating report

Time: January 9, 2020 14:16:05 China Finance
Original Title: Local Government Bond Announcement: 2020 Shenzhen (This Level) Airport Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Government Special Bonds (Phase 2) Credit Rating Report


















































Shanghai New Century Credit Rating Investment Service Co., Ltd.


Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., Ltd.


Overview




Number: [New Century Debt Review (2019) 011646]

Bond name

Bond grade

2020 Shenzhen (this level) airport special bond (first phase)-2020 Shenzhen government special bond (second phase)

AAA















Bonds and issuers profile

Overview of the current bond:

Issuing subject:

Shenzhen Municipal People's Government

Issue scale:

3.150 billion yuan

Bond maturity:

15 years

Repayment method:

Pay interest on a half-year basis and pay off the principal in installments

Use of raised funds:

Airport Satellite Hall Project

Source of debt service funds:

Airport Satellite Hall Operating Revenue

Project estimated funding coverage

1.24 times

Shenzhen data and indicators

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

Regional GDP [10 billion yuan]

200.80

224.90

242.22

Regional GDP growth rate [%]

9.1

8.8

7.6

GDP per capita [10,000 yuan]

17.25

18.35

18.96

General public budget revenue [100 million yuan]

3136.49

3332.13

3538.44

Of which: General public budget revenue at city level [100 million yuan]

1995.95

2086.76

2190.13

Tax ratio [%]

79.35

79.68

81.95

General public budget self-sufficiency rate [%]

74.48

72.54

82.62

Higher subsidy income (general public budget) [100 million yuan]

232.42

290.95

286.81

Government fund budget revenue [100 million yuan]

966.40

1029.95

964.64

Of which: Budget revenue of municipal government funds [100 million yuan]

956.02

1026.50

962.53

Government debt balance of the city [100 million yuan]

129.78

118.78

146.27

Of which: Government debts [100 million yuan]

127.95

117.24

145.92

Municipal government debt balance [100 million yuan]

98.91

105.07

94.27

Of which: Government debts [100 million yuan]

97.08

103.53

93.92



Note: Economic data are from the “Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2018” and “Shenzhen National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin 2018”; financial and debt data are provided by the Shenzhen Municipal Finance Bureau.










Analyst



Wang Jingru wjr@shxsj.com

郭燕 gy@shxsj.com

Wu Mengqi wmq@shxsj.com

Tel: (021) 63501349 Fax: (021) 63500872



14F Huasheng Building, 398 Hankou Road, Shanghai

http://www.shxsj.com


















Rating perspective




The funds raised in the current bond are intended to be used for the Shenzhen Airport Satellite Hall project, and the debt repayment funds will come from the airport satellite hall's operating income.

According to the special bond implementation plan, by 2035, after the repayment of the principal and interest of the current bond, the cumulative cash balance of the project will be 2.675 billion yuan;
After the repayment of the principal and interest of the last period of special bonds in 2036, the project's accumulated cash balance is 2.369 billion yuan. It is expected that the cash flow from the repayable bonds will cover the principal and interest of the bonds.

. The current bond income, expenditures, principal and interest payments are included in the budget management of the Shenzhen Government Fund, and the degree of repayment guarantee is high.

Shenzhen has excellent location conditions and policy environment, and its economic scale ranks among the top cities in the Mainland. Shenzhen's economic growth is mainly driven by final consumption. At present, high-tech, financial,
The pillar industries such as logistics and cultural industries, and the strategic emerging industries' role in the engine of economic growth are becoming increasingly prominent, the industry's competitive advantages are obvious, and the economic growth potential is strong.

Shenzhen has strong local comprehensive financial resources. In recent years, the general public budget revenue has maintained a rapid growth. The scale of comprehensive financial resources has been increasing year by year.
Financial stability is better. The budget revenue of the Shenzhen government fund has remained stable, which has provided a certain complement to local financial resources. Shenzhen's fiscal balance is strong, and its dependence on superior subsidies is low.

Since 2018, with the issuance of local government bonds, the scale of Shenzhen government debt has increased, but it has remained low.
Light government debt.

In recent years, Shenzhen's fiscal and taxation systems and debt management and control mechanism have been continuously improved, and the reform of the administrative approval system has been continuously deepened. The government's operating efficiency and service capabilities have continued to improve, government information disclosure has continued to advance, government information transparency is high, and local government management is in good condition.

The debt repayment funds of this period of bonds mainly come from the operating income of the Airport Satellite Agency. There will be some uncertainties in the future when the Satellite Agency is put into operation and passenger throughput. And the construction of fund-raising projects is greatly affected by factors such as construction progress and construction safety. Need to pay attention



statement

The rating agency makes the following statement on the credit rating of Shenzhen (this level) airport special bonds (Phase 1) to 2020 Shenzhen Government special bonds (Phase 2):

The conclusion of the credit rating of the current bond is that the rating agency and the rating analysts have performed due diligence and based on the Notice of the Ministry of Finance on Printing and Distributing the Interim Measures for the Administration of Issuance of Special Bonds by Local Governments (Caiku [2015] No. 83 ), Ministry of Finance, "Notice on Local Government Special Bond Varieties for Balance of Revenue and Financing of Pilot Development Projects" (Cai Yu [2017] No. 89), Ministry of Finance "Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Issuing Local Government Bonds" (Finance Ku [2019] No. 23) and other relevant regulations, as well as the independent judgment made by the institution's local government bond credit rating standards and procedures. The rating method on which this rating is based is the New Century Rating "China Local Government Bond Credit Rating Method", which can be found on the official website of the New Century Rating.


There is no independent, objective, and fair relationship between the rating agency and the local government bond credit rating analyst and the debtor other than the entrusted relationship of this credit rating event, which affects the rating behavior. It is an honest, objective, and fair relationship, and abides by integrity during the credit rating Principle to ensure that the rating report issued is objective, fair, accurate and timely.


The credit rating and subsequent tracking ratings of this rating agency are based on information provided by local governments, and local governments are responsible for the legality, authenticity, completeness, and accuracy of the information they provide.


In view of the timeliness of credit ratings, the rating agency will follow up on local government bonds.

During the validity period of the credit rating, local governments should provide relevant information to the rating agency in a timely manner when major changes occur in the financial and local economic external operating environment. The rating agency will follow-up follow-up ratings in accordance with relevant rating business specifications and retain changes And the right to announce credit ratings.


The conclusion of this local government bond credit rating is not a recommendation to guide investors to buy or sell various financial products issued by the local government, and creditors' credit, lending or credit sales to the local government.
Nor is it a corresponding comment on the pricing of financial products or debts related to local governments.


The relevant content and digital analysis involved in this rating report are sensitive commercial materials, and their copyright belongs to this rating agency. They must not be modified, copied, reproduced, distributed, sold or transmitted in any way without authorization.





2020 Shenzhen (this level) airport special bond (Phase I)

-2020 Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (second phase)

Credit Rating Report

Paraphrase

New Century Rating, or this rating agency: Shanghai New Century Credit Rating Investment Services Co., Ltd.

Bonds of this period: 2020 Shenzhen (this level) airport special bonds (first phase)-2020 Shenzhen government special bonds (second phase)

I. Bond Overview

(I) Main provisions

The Shenzhen Municipal People's Government plans to issue special bonds for the Airport Satellite Agency, with a total face value of 7.0 billion yuan, and plans to issue them in multiple instalments. The first 10-year special bonds of 1.850 billion yuan have been issued in March 2019, with a coupon rate of 3.34%. (Bond abbreviation: 19 Shenzhen debt 04). The current issue size of the bond is planned to be 3.150 billion yuan with a term of 15 years. The variety is book-entry fixed-rate interest-bearing bonds. After issuance, it can be listed and circulated on the national inter-bank bond market and the stock exchange. Interest on the bonds is paid on a half-year basis. At the end of the 8-9th interest-bearing year of the bond duration, 5% of the principal of the bond will be repaid, and at the end of the 10-15th interest-bearing year, 15% of the principal of the bond will be repaid.


Figure 1. Overview of the bond


Bond name:

2020 Shenzhen (this level) airport special bond (first phase)-2020 Shenzhen government special bond (second phase)

Issue scale:

RMB 3.150 billion

Bond maturity:

15 year term

Bond interest rate:

Fixed interest rate

Interest payment method:

Interest is paid on a half-year basis, and 5% of the principal of the bond is repaid at the end of the 8-9th interest-bearing year of the bond duration.
At the end of the 10-15th interest-bearing year, 15% of the principal of the bond will be repaid separately

Upgrade arrangements:

no



Source: Shenzhen Finance Bureau, New Century Rating


(2) Use of raised funds and debt repayment arrangements

The proceeds raised from the bond issue are intended for the Shenzhen Airport Satellite Hall Project (hereinafter referred to as the "Airport Satellite Hall Project", "the project", "the project" or the "fundraising project"). The debt repayment funds for this period of bonds come from the operating income of the Airport Satellite Agency. The bond debt income, arranged expenditures, repayment of principal and interest, and issuance expenses for the current period are included in the budget management of the Shenzhen Municipal Government Fund.


Analysis of bond repayment guarantee

(I) Overview of investment projects with raised funds

The airport satellite hall project is located at Shenzhen Baoan International Airport (hereinafter referred to as " Shenzhen Airport ") T3
On the north side of the terminal building, between the first and second runways of the airport, the satellite hall will adopt the "X" configuration design.
There are 56 corridor bridge seats, which mainly provide domestic passengers' waiting, arrival, and transit services. They are designed to handle 22 million passenger throughputs. After completion, they will be connected to the current T3 terminal through the MRT system. The total construction area of the airport satellite hall project is 235,000 square meters.
111.5 hectares, of which 107.9 hectares are newly added to the flight area, and new facilities are added to the supporting facilities area on the north side
3.6 hectares. The construction content includes the satellite hall project and related ancillary works. The satellite hall has a total of four floors above ground and one underground floor. The first to fourth floors above the ground are used for luggage handling, domestic arrival, domestic departure, and "two-cabin" waiting, underground The first floor is mainly the MRT platform and baggage sorting machine room. At present, the satellite hall project has completed the preparatory work for construction, and officially started construction on December 21, 2018. It is planned to be completed and put into use in 2021. The main body of the project is Shenzhen Airport (Group) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the "Airport Group"), which has been approved for reform, land use,
Construction permit.


1 The newly-added land is within the existing management area of the airport and does not involve land acquisition.


The total dynamic investment amount of the bond investment projects in this period is 10.567 billion yuan, including engineering costs, other construction costs, reserve costs, MRT vehicle purchase costs, and bond interest and expenses. In terms of funding sources, the initial planned capital of the project was 3.567 billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of the total cost of
33.75%; the remaining 7.0 billion yuan is planned to be raised through the issuance of special bonds by local governments. The bond issuance plan is shown in Figure 2.







Table 2. Special bond issuance plan (Unit: 100 million yuan) 2


2 19 Shenzhen debt 04 At the end of the fourth to tenth interest-bearing years of the bond duration, the bonds were repaid 12%, 12%,
12%, 16%, 16%, 16%, and 16%; the special bonds planned to be issued in 2021 will pay interest on a half-year basis, from the 8th to the 9th of the bond duration
At the end of each interest-bearing year, 5% of the principal of the bond will be repaid, and at the end of the 10-15th interest-bearing year, 15% of the principal of the bond will be repaid.


3 Excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, the same applies below.


years

Planned issuance

Bond maturity

2019

18.50

10 years

2020

31.50

15 years

2021

20.00

15 years



Source: Shenzhen Finance Bureau

(2) Analysis of external environment and project feasibility

With the economic development and the improvement of residents' living standards, the popularization of air travel is becoming more and more obvious.
Demand for airport construction has also increased rapidly. As of the end of 2018, there were 235 3 civil aviation (certification) airports in China, an increase of 6 from the end of 2017. In recent years, the main production indicators of China's airports have continued to maintain a steady and rapid growth. In 2018, the national civil aviation airport completed a passenger throughput of 1.265 billion passengers, an increase of 10.2% over the previous year; the completed cargo and mail throughput of 16.7042 million tons, an increase over the previous year 3.5%; completed 11,088,300 sorties, an increase of 8.2% over the previous year.


Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport is located in Baoan District, southwest of Shenzhen. It is located in the core area of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. It is a modern international airport that integrates sea, land, air, and rail transport. It is also the first transit airport in China. International hub airport. Since its inception, the passenger throughput and cargo and mail throughput of Shenzhen Airport have grown rapidly. In 2018, passenger throughput reached 49.349 million.
Ranked No. 5 in national airports and No. 33 in global airports.
It ranks 4th in national airports and 24th in global airports. At present, the terminal area of Shenzhen Airport is the T3 terminal building, with a total construction area of approximately 451,000 square meters, designed to handle an annual passenger throughput of 4500.
The number of passengers is now in a saturated state of operation. It is conservatively predicted that Shenzhen Airport's annual passenger throughput will reach 54.88 million by 2020. The existing terminal facilities need to be further expanded.


Figure 3. Main production indicators of Shenzhen Airport from 2016 to 2018


years

Passenger throughput (10,000 passengers)

Cargo and mail throughput (10,000 tons)

Takeoffs and landings (10,000 flights)

Throughput

growth rate

Throughput

growth rate

Takeoffs and landings

growth rate

2016 year

4197.1

5.7%

112.6

11.0%

31.9

4.3%

2017 year

4561.1

8.7%

115.9

2.9%

34.0

6.8%

2018 year

4934.9

8.2%

121.8

5.1%

35.6

4.6%



Source: Website of the Ministry of Transportation, Website of Shenzhen Municipal Transportation Bureau, Special Bond Implementation Plan


(3) Analysis of sources of debt service funds

According to "Shenzhen (This Level) Airport Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds (Phase 2) Project Implementation Plan" (hereinafter referred to as "Special Bond Implementation Plan"),
The fund-raising project is expected to be completed and put into use in 2021. According to the current passenger throughput forecast of Shenzhen Airport , the duration of the special bond (2019-2036) 4 is expected to be 29,300 passenger throughput after the satellite hall project is completed and put into operation. The total is 18.62 billion yuan. The operating income of the satellite hall includes passenger bridge fees, passenger service fees, security inspection fees, terminal site facilities rental fees, ground service fees, and other income. Among them, passenger bridge fees, passenger service fees, and security inspection fees are in accordance with Calculation of the Standard Adjustment Plan (Civil Aviation [2017] No. 18);
Terminal site facilities rental fees, ground service charges, and other income items refer to Shenzhen Airport
And the operating conditions of other domestic airports.


4 The last special bond is planned to be paid in January 2036. Therefore, the operating income cost of the Airport Satellite Agency Project in 2036 will not be included in the source of debt service funds for the time being.


Table 4. Estimated operating income of the Airport Satellite Agency (Unit: 10,000 person-times, 10,000 yuan)


project

Passenger throughput

Aviation business income

Non-aviation business income

Total operating income

Passenger bridge fee

Passenger service fee

Security fee

Terminal venue facility rental fee

Ground service income

Other income

2022

1619

2002

32388

9903

12972

16194

32388

105847

2023

1748

2168

34967

10692

12972

17483

34967

113249

2024

1887

2346

37750

11543

12972

18875

37750

121236

2025

2037

2542

40756

12462

12972

20378

40756

129866

2026

2200

2754

44000

13454

12972

22000

44000

139180

2027

2200

2754

44000

13454

12972

22000

44000

139180

2028

2200

2754

44000

13454

12972

22000

44000

139180

2029

2200

2754

44000

13454

12972

22000

44000

139180

2030

2200

2754

44000

13454

12972

22000

44000

139180

2031

2200

2754

44000

13454

12972

22000

44000

139180

2032

2200

2754

44000

13454

12972

22000

44000

139180

2033

2200

2754

44000

13454

12972

22000

44000

139180

2034

2200

2754

44000

13454

12972

22000

44000

139180

2035

2200

2754

44000

13454

12972

22000

44000

139180

total

29293

36598

585861

179140

181608

292930

585861

1861998



Source: Special Bond Implementation Plan, New Century Rating

The operating costs of the investment projects during the operating period include wages and benefits, repair costs, outsourced fuel gas costs, other costs, and related taxes.


Fund-raising projects meet the investment needs of the project through the issuance of special bonds. The first special bonds issued are calculated at the actual issue interest rate of 3.34%. The current bonds and the 2021 planned bond issuance


The coupon rate of the coupon is temporarily calculated at 3.64%, taking into account the bond principal and interest payment, capital investment, and operating cash flow. When the current bond matures (ie, 2035), after repaying the bond principal and interest, the project cash balance is 2.675 billion yuan. The accumulated cash inflows of the project each year during the bond's duration can fully cover the principal and interest payments of the bonds due that year. In the maturity year of the last special bond to be issued by the project (ie 2036), the project still has a cash balance of 23.69 after the principal and interest of the maturity bond are repaid.
100 million yuan, the project funding coverage rate 5 is expected to be 1.24 times.


5 In this report, the capital coverage ratio = the cumulative cash balance of the project at the end of the period / the total amount of bond repayments and debts +1.


6 Including bond issuance costs (1 ‰ of bond issuance amount), bond issuance registration fees (0.1 ‰ of bond issuance amount), bond repayment service fee (0.05 ‰ of total repayment of principal and interest).


Table 5. Project cash flow simulation calculation results (Unit: 10,000 yuan)


project

Capital inflow

Bond capital inflows

Operating cash inflows

Outflow of funds during construction

Working capital outflow

Bond issue costs 6

Bond repayment

Current project cash net income

Cumulative cash balance at the end of the period

2019

178844

185000

-

-346707

-

-204.15

-3090

13844

13844

2020

151797

315000

-

-437741

-

-347.60

-11912

16797

30641

2021

26028

200000

-

-180439

-

-221.06

-21285

24083

54724

2022

-

-

105847

-

-35321

-1.25

-24925

45600

100324

2023

-

-

113249

-

-38244

-2.34

-46754

28249

128573

2024

-

-

121236

-

-81609

-2.30

-46013

-6389

122184

2025

-

-

129866

-

-44776

-2.26

-45271

39816

162000

2026

-

-

139180

-

-51571

-2.59

-51806

35800

197801

2027

-

-

139180

-

-51992

-2.54

-50818

36368

234168

2028

-

-

139180

-

-52370

-3.26

-65292

21514

255682

2029

-

-

139180

-

-52844

-3.68

-73548

12784

268465

2030

-

-

139180

-

-53401

-3.67

-73443

12332

280797

2031

-

-

139180

-

-54088

-4.55

-90996

-5909

274888

2032

-

-

139180

-

-54791

-4.41

-88184

-3800

271088

2033

-

-

139180

-

-55494

-4.27

-85372

-1691

269397

2034

-

-

139180

-

-58635

-4.13

-82560

-2020

267377

2035

-

-

139180

-

-59338

-3.99

-79748

89

267467

2036

-

-

-

-

-

-1.53

-30546

-30548

236919

total

356669

700000

1861998

-964887

-744474

-819.58

-971563

236919

-



Source: Special Bond Implementation Plan, New Century Rating

(IV) Risk analysis of fundraising projects

Risk analysis during construction

The overall investment scale of the fundraising project is large and the period is long. During the construction and operation of the project, if the price of construction materials, equipment and labor increases, or if it encounters irresistible natural disasters, accidents and other unforeseen difficulties, or due to investment management and Poor control leads to cost


Out of control, the actual cost of the project exceeds estimates, which may result in the project not being completed on time or failing to meet the pre-design requirements, and project benefits cannot be achieved as expected. However, considering that the main body of the fund-raising investment project is the Airport Group, and the relevant government departments have a high degree of cooperation with the project, the project construction and construction risks are generally controllable.


In terms of financial risks, the Airport Satellite Hall project helps to improve the infrastructure security capabilities of Shenzhen Airport and can be strongly supported by the local government. The initial capital input for the project is
3.567 billion yuan, which accounted for 33.75% of the total investment of the project; the remaining part was raised through the issuance of special government bonds, and the source of project funds was more secure. Taking into account the relatively low financing cost of local government bonds, the financial burden of the project can be reduced to a certain extent.


2. Risk analysis during operation period

Funding for this period of bond repayment comes from the operating income of the Satellite Agency, including passenger bridge fees, passenger service fees,
Security check fees, terminal site facilities rental fees, ground service charges, and other income, etc. This part of the income is greatly affected by factors such as the operating hours of the satellite hall and the passenger throughput of the satellite hall. In addition,
After the construction of the project, if it encounters emergencies or production safety incidents, it will also adversely affect the project operation. If there is a large gap between actual operating income and expectations, it will have a certain negative impact on debt servicing funds. New Century Rating makes assumptions on the stress test scenario of the cash flow of debt service of the current bond based on the risk analysis of the operation period of the investment project. The New Century rating mainly considers scenarios in which operating income falls short of expectations.


In the scenario where the operating income does not meet expectations, as shown in the following table,
Under the 10% scenario, by the end of 2036, the project ’s special bonds will have cash balances of 1.438 billion yuan and 507 million yuan, with capital coverage of 1.15 and 1.05 times,
It can be seen that the project cash inflow can withstand the downward pressure on operating income to a certain extent.


Table 6. Cumulative cash balance of the project at the end of the project under the scenario of decreasing operating income 7 (Unit: 100 million yuan)


7 The stress test only considers the impact of declining income on cash flow, and does not consider the impact of changes in income taxes and other expenditures on cash flow.


Bond duration

Original cash balance

After income drops by 5%

After income drops by 10%

2019

13844

13844

13844

2020

30641

30641

30641

2021

54724

54724

54724

2022

100324

95032

89739

2023

128573

117617

106662

2024

122184

105166

88149

2025

162000

138489

114979

2026

197801

167331

136862

2027

234168

196739

159311

2028

255682

211293

166906




Bond duration

Original cash balance

After income drops by 5%

After income drops by 10%

2029

268465

217118

165772

2030

280797

222490

164186

2031

274888

209623

144359

2032

271088

198864

126642

2033

269397

190215

111033

2034

267377

181236

95095

2035

267467

174367

81267

2036

236919

143820

50720

Fund coverage

1.24

1.15

1.05



Source: New Century rating sorting and calculation

Generally speaking, the cash inflows generated from the investment projects have a good coverage of the project's cash expenditures and the principal and interest of bond financing, and can withstand the pressure of income decline to a certain extent. Bond income, expenses,
The repayment of principal and interest is included in the budget management of the Shenzhen Municipal Government Fund, and debt repayment guarantee is high.


3. Credit quality analysis of Shenzhen Municipal Government

(I) Shenzhen's economic strength

Shenzhen has a superior location and advantages in policy and resources , and its economic development has been steadily at the forefront of large and medium-sized cities in the country. The city's economic growth is mainly driven by final consumption, supplemented by net exports and fixed asset investment, and its economic development momentum is relatively balanced. In recent years, the city has promoted industrial upgrading through innovation, and the pillar industries have obvious competitive advantages. The role of the main engine of strategic emerging industries has continued to increase, and the economic growth potential is sufficient.


Shenzhen is the first special economic zone established since China's reform and opening up, and it is also our country5
One of the planned cities, located in the southern part of Guangdong Province, facing Daya Bay in the east, adjacent to the Pearl River estuary in the west, bordering Dongguan and Huizhou in the north, and being separated from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region by the south, it is the central city in the Pearl River Delta region. Excellent location. At present, the city's land area is 1997.47 square kilometers, and it has jurisdiction over Futian District, Luohu District, Yantian District, Nanshan District, Baoan District, Longgang District, Longhua District,
Pingshan District, Guangming District and Dapeng New District include 10 administrative / functional areas. In 1980, Shenzhen was approved to set up a special economic zone; in 1988, Shenzhen began to implement a separate plan with provincial-level fiscal management authority; in 1992, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress granted Shenzhen the power to formulate local laws and regulations; in 2010, the scope of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Extend to the whole city. Overall, Shenzhen has dual status as a special economic zone and a city with a single plan, and has a prominent position in China's politics and economy.


Shenzhen is a typical immigrant city with a relatively young population structure and abundant labor resources;
The industrial agglomeration and headquarters economy have significant effects, and the regional population introduction ability is strong. According to the 2016 Shenzhen Gender Statistics Report, as of the end of 2016, the city's total permanent population was 1198.84


10,000 people, of which 81.1% are aged 18-64, 3.3% are aged 65 and over, which is lower than the country
With an average level of 10.8%, the government ’s pressure on spending on pensions and medical security is relatively light. At the end of 2018, the city's resident population increased by 4.0% over the end of the previous year to 13.062.6 million, of which the registered population accounted for 34.9%.


Shenzhen is an important comprehensive transportation hub and border port in China. The development level of highway transportation, rail transportation, aviation and shipping system is high. In terms of highways, the long-distance passenger trains departing from Shenzhen currently cover cities and counties in Guangdong Province, covering more than 20 provinces, cities and Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions. In terms of railways, the national medium and long-term railway network plan has identified Shenzhen as a national railway hub city.
A double cross structure with the Xiamen-Shenzhen Railway as the horizontal axis and the Beijing-Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Passenger Dedicated Line and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway as the vertical axis has basically been formed in Shenzhen. The railway along the railway has basically covered major cities in South China, North China and the southeast coast. In terms of urban rail transit, as of the end of 2018, Shenzhen has opened 9 rail transit lines and has formed an operating mileage of 296.72 kilometers, covering the urban rail transit operating network of Shenzhen's main development axis. In terms of aviation, Shenzhen Baoan Airport is the fourth largest airport in China.
At the same time, it is also the first modern international air port in China to achieve sea, land and air transport. In terms of shipping, Shenzhen Port currently has more than 10 shipping terminals including Shekou, Fuyong, and Yantian. In 2018, the total container throughput of the port was 25.735 million TEUs. An increase of 2.1% year-on-year.


Thanks to innovation-driven industrial transformation and upgrading, Shenzhen's economy has maintained high-quality growth in recent years.
The level of economic development is steadily among the forefront of large and medium cities in the country. From 2016 to 2018, Shenzhen achieved a regional GDP of 2.01 trillion yuan, 2.25 trillion yuan, and 2.42 trillion yuan. In 2018, the regional GDP still ranked third in the large and medium-sized cities in the Mainland; year-on-year growth rates were 9.1 %, 8.8%, and 7.6%,
They were 2.4, 1.9, and 1.0 percentage points higher than the national level during the same period. In 2018, Shenzhen's per capita regional GDP reached 189,600 yuan, which is 2.93 times the per capita GDP, and it ranks first among the four first-tier cities in the country.


Figure 7. Comparison of major economic indicators between Shenzhen and the country and other cities in 2018


index

2018 year

2018 year

Shenzhen

Nationwide

Proportion

Beijing

Shanghai

Guangzhou

Regional GDP (100 million yuan)

24221.98

900309.5

2.69%

30320.0

32679.9

22859.4

Of which: added value of the secondary industry

9961.95

366000.9

2.72%

5647.7

9732.5

6234.1

Tertiary industry added value

14237.94

469574.6

3.03%

24553.6

22843.0

16401.8

Regional GDP growth rate (%)

7.6

6.6

-

6.6

6.6

6.2



Source: Website of National and Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics


Table 8. Main economic indicators and growth rate of Shenzhen since 2016 (Unit: 100 million yuan,%)


index

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

Amount

Increase

Amount

Increase

Amount

Increase

Gross Regional Product 8

20079.70

9.1

22490.06

8.8

24221.98

7.6

Added value of the primary industry

8.28

-0.4

19.57

27.0

22.09

3.9

Added value of the secondary industry

8310.65

8.1

9318.10

9.2

9961.95

9.3

Tertiary industry added value

11760.77

9.9

13152.39

8.4

14237.94

6.4

GDP per capita (10,000 yuan)

17.25

3.8

18.35

3.9

18.96

3.2

Per capita disposable income of residents

4.87

-

5.29

-

5.75

8.7

The total retail sales of social consumer goods

5512.76

8.1

6016.19

9.1

6168.87

7.6

Investment in fixed assets

4078.16

23.6

5147.32

23.8

6191.01

20.6

Total imports and exports (100 million US dollars) 9

3984.39

-9.9

4141.46

3.9

29983.74

7.0



8 Since 2017, R & D expenditure has been included in the GDP calculation. The Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2018 has adjusted the regional GDP in the previous year accordingly. The adjusted values are used in this report. In addition, in 2017, the Shenzhen-Shandong Special Cooperation Zone was included in the Shenzhen GDP calculation.


9 The total value of imports and exports in 2018 is 100 million yuan, and the growth rate is the year-on-year growth rate in RMB terms.


Source: Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2018, Shenzhen December 2018 Statistical Indicators, and 2018 Shenzhen National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, sorted by the New Century

Shenzhen's industry is dominated by advanced manufacturing and modern service industries. In recent years, the city's industrial economy and modern service industry have maintained rapid growth. In 2018, the added value of the secondary and tertiary industries in the city was 1.00 trillion yuan and 1.42 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3% and 6.4%. Specifically, the city's industrial high-end development momentum is good, and the total value added of advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries accounts for the largest value added of industrial enterprises above designated size in Guangdong Province. In 2018, the city's advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing realized value added of 656.483 billion yuan and 613.120 billion yuan, respectively.
Year-on-year growth of 12.0% and 13.3% respectively, the growth rate is higher than the city's added value of industrial enterprises above designated size
2.5% and 3.8%, accounting for 70.94% of the total industrial added value and
66.25%. In terms of service industry, the development of the city's service industries above designated size includes leasing and business services,
The Internet and related services, software, and information technology services industries are mainly dominated by a good development trend, 2018
The annual added value of the city's modern service industry was 1.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%.


From the perspective of the economic development dynamics structure, Shenzhen has formed a balanced economic development dynamics structure with final consumption as the mainstay, supplemented by net exports and fixed asset investment. The economic development stability is relatively good. In the past two years, the city's final consumption rate and capital formation rate have remained at about 41% and 34%, respectively.
The momentum of economic development is more balanced.



Table 9. Composition of Shenzhen's GDP by Expenditure Method (Unit:%)




Note: Organized and plotted according to the 2018 Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook

With the improvement of residents' living standards and the introduction of policies to expand domestic demand, the total consumption of Shenzhen has continued to increase in recent years, and the final consumption has contributed significantly to the regional economy. From 2016 to 2018, the per capita disposable income of Shenzhen residents was 48,700 yuan, 52,900 yuan and 57,500 yuan, respectively, and the regional residents' consumption power was strong. The total retail sales of consumer goods during the same period were 551.276 billion yuan,
6016.19 billion yuan and 616.887 billion yuan, mainly retail sales in the wholesale and retail trade. In addition, the rapid development of new consumer formats and other forms of driving the role of consumption growth continue to increase. In 2017, the city's e-commerce transaction volume reached 2.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.1% 10.


10 The data comes from the Shenzhen White Paper on E-Commerce Development 2017.


11 Dependence on foreign trade = total imports and exports * average exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar in that year / regional GDP * 100%.


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Shenzhen's fixed asset investment is dominated by the tertiary industry. The scale of investment has been expanding in recent years.
The growth rate is maintained at a high level, private investment is active, continuous investment in research and development, and the investment structure is constantly optimized. In 2018, the city's investment in fixed assets was 619.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%.
Among them, the investment in the tertiary industry increased by 23.4%. From the perspective of specific industry investment directions, the real estate industry, manufacturing and water conservancy, environment and public facilities management industries are the main investment directions, of which real estate project development investment accounts for a relatively large proportion, and investment scale has maintained rapid growth in recent years. In 2018, the city's real estate development investment increased by 23.6% year-on-year. Benefiting from an open economic policy environment, Shenzhen's private investment is active.In 2018, private investment increased by 12.5% year-on-year, higher than the national level of 3.8
Percentage points.


In terms of foreign economy, in 2016, due to factors such as slowing market demand in Europe and the United States, increasing downward pressure on the economy, and the relocation of production capacity of some enterprises, Shenzhen's total import and export volume showed negative growth. In 2017, it benefited from the recovery of the global economy and trade. The total amount is recovering. Overall,
The contribution of total net exports of goods and services to economic growth has declined in recent years. 2016-
In 2017, Shenzhen's total import and export volume was US $ 398.439 billion and US $ 414.146 billion, respectively. During the same period, the foreign trade dependence 11 was 131.80% and 124.33%, and the economy was highly dependent on foreign trade.

Since 2017, Shenzhen's processing and assembly trade of incoming materials and processing trade of imported materials and other labor-intensive products


The proportion of the industry in total foreign trade exports continued to decline, and the trade structure continued to improve. In 2017, the total import and export value of processing trade in the city's total foreign trade exports was 84.241 billion US dollars, accounting for 34.47% of the total foreign trade exports. Affected by the rapid increase in the scale of imports, Shenzhen's total import and export volume in 2018 was 2,988.374 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0% over the previous year.


From the perspective of the development of pillar industries, the current pillar industries in Shenzhen are high-tech industry, financial industry, logistics industry and cultural industry.
Trillion yuan. In terms of high-tech industries, Shenzhen has formed a high-tech industrial cluster led by the electronic information industry , and has become an important base for the industrialization of high-tech achievements in China. In 2018,
The city's high-tech industry added value of 829.663 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year, making it the city's largest pillar industry. As for the financial industry, Shenzhen's financial industry clusters include Futian, Luohu,
Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone (hereinafter referred to as "Qianhai Cooperation Zone"), etc. Among them, Qianhai Cooperation Zone will create a pilot window for China's financial industry to open to the outside world. In 2018, the added value of the financial industry in the city was 306.721 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. In that year, the financial industry's contribution rate to the city's tax revenue was 22.37%, which was higher than that of the manufacturing industry (20.30%) and became the city's first taxpaying industry. In terms of modern logistics, relying on its superior geographical location, perfect infrastructure and developed hinterland economy,
Shenzhen's modern logistics industry has developed with high efficiency. At present, the main logistics industrial parks include Qianhai Bay Bonded Logistics Park, Yantian Logistics Park, Dakong Airport Logistics Park, Pinghu Logistics Base,
In South China Logistics Park and other places, more than 80% of national supply chain management company headquarters are gathered in Shenzhen, and representative logistics listed companies such as SF and EAST have emerged. In terms of cultural industries, Shenzhen is the first city in the country to be awarded the title of "Design Capital" by UNESCO. Industrial design and graphic design are leading the country. Shenzhen's well-known cultural industry companies include Tencent, Thunder,
Huaqiang Culture Technology, Jialantu Design, etc. In 2018, the city will realize the added value of culture and related industries
156.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%.


In recent years, the role of strategic emerging industries in driving Shenzhen's economic growth has become more prominent, and the role of the main engine has become more prominent. Shenzhen has become the city with the largest strategic emerging industries and the strongest agglomeration in China. Among them, the development of the new-generation information technology industry and cultural and creative industries is relatively large. In 2018, the city's seven strategic emerging industries12 achieved value-added 915.518 billion yuan.
An increase of 9.1% over the previous year, accounting for 37.80% of the city's regional GDP, of which the new-generation information technology industry added value of 477.202 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year; the digital economy industry added value
124.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; high-end equipment manufacturing industry added value of 106.582 billion yuan,
A year-on-year increase of 10.7%. In addition, Shenzhen's advanced industry layout in the future has now formed including robots, wearable devices and intelligent equipment industries, marine industries, aerospace and life health products.

12 Shenzhen's seven strategic emerging industries include new-generation information technology industries, digital economy industries, high-end equipment manufacturing industries,
Green and low-carbon industries, marine economic industries, new materials industries, and biomedical industries.



Industry, including the four major future industries, of which the intelligent equipment manufacturing industry's 2018 output value is about 500 billion yuan.

With the gradual development and expansion of the industry in the future, new economic growth points will be formed.


According to Shenzhen's "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", in the medium and long term, Shenzhen will highlight innovation drive and develop new momentum, and strive to build Shenzhen into an internationally leading innovative city and a national economic center. From the perspective of development strategy, the 2016 National “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” outlines that Shenzhen will be established as an international science and technology and industrial innovation center; the 2017 National Marine Economic Development “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” proposes Shenzhen as a global ocean center city; The development plan outline of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area proposes that Shenzhen should be used as a special economic zone, a national economic center city and a national innovative city, accelerate the establishment of a modern international city, and strive to become a capital of innovation and creativity with global influence. As a strategic hub city, with the advancement of national strategies such as the “ Belt and Road ”, “Ocean Powers”, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and innovative nations, Shenzhen has a bright future for development.


(2) Shenzhen's financial strength

深圳市财力规模雄厚,且主要来自一般公共预算,财力较稳健。得益于高成长性企业集聚发展,深圳市产业经济创税能力强,近年来全市一般公共预算收入保持较快增长,收入质量及持续性好。深圳市政府性基金预算收入以国有土地使用权出让收入为主,对地方财力形成一定补充,近年来规模较为稳定。总体看,深圳市财政收支平衡能力强,对上级补助收入依赖度低。


深圳市地方财政收入主要来自一般公共预算收入,近年来全市财政实力保持较高水平,2016-2018年全市财政收入合计13分别为7402.13亿元、7164.04亿元和6894.27亿元,受一般公共预算中调入资金及调入预算调节稳定基金规模同比减少影响,2018年深圳市财政收入合计同比略降3.77%,近三年一般公共预算收入总计占比维持在75%以上。深圳市政府性基金预算收入总计占地方财力比重较低,2016-2018年平均占比为21.9%,政府性基金预算收入的波动对深圳市整体财政实力的影响程度相对有限,地方财力较稳健。


13 本报告中,财政收入合计=一般公共预算收入总计+政府性基金预算收入总计+国有资本经营预算收入总计。


图表10. 深圳市财政收入构成(单位:亿元)


index

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

Citywide

City level

Citywide

City level

Citywide

City level

财政收入合计

7402.13

5009.39

7164.04

4779.13

6894.27

4713.26

一般公共预算收入总计

5673.67

3454.85

5611.52

3370.04

5265.92

3239.03

其中:一般公共预算收入

3136.49

1995.95

3332.13

2086.76

3538.44

2190.13




index

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year



Citywide

City level

Citywide

City level

Citywide

City level

Higher subsidy income

232.42

232.42

290.95

290.95

286.81

286.81

政府性基金预算收入总计

1639.66

1476.51

1489.98

1356.48

1562.95-

1419.08

其中:政府性基金预算收入

966.40

956.02

1029.95

1026.50

964.64

962.53

Higher subsidy income

5.54

5.54

5.17

5.17

5.87

5.86

国有资本经营预算收入总计

88.80

78.03

62.53

52.61

65.40

55.15

其中:国有资本经营预算收入

67.59

59.30

38.94

35.44

46.63

40.83



资料来源:深圳市财政局

与经济发展水平相适应,深圳市一般公共预算收入在全国计划单列市中处于领先水平。近年来得益于经济发展质量和效益持续提高,全市一般公共预算收入保持较快增长。2016-2018年深圳市一般公共预算收入分别为3136.49亿元、3332.13亿元和3538.44亿元,同比分别增长
15.02%、6.24%和6.19%,受全面“营改增”以及中央地方收入划分调整,同时落实各项减税降费政策措施等因素影响,增速趋缓。考虑到调入资金、上年结余及省补助计划单列市收入等因素,2016-2018年全市一般公共预算收入总计分别为5673.67亿元、5611.52亿元和5262.92亿元。


具体来看,税收收入是深圳市一般公共预算收入主要构成,主要税源行业为制造业、金融、房地产、租赁和商务服务业等。2016-2018年税收比率14分别为79.35%、79.68%和81.95%,收入质量及持续性好。

分税种看,全市税收收入以增值税、企业所得税和个人所得税为主,2018
年上述三项税种收入合计为2101.02亿元,占税收收入的72.46%,全市税源结构较稳健。深圳市非税收入主要来自专项收入和国有资源(资产)
有偿使用收入,规模易受政策因素影响,2018年非税收入同比下降5.67%
至638.81亿元,主要系国有资源(资产)有偿使用收入大幅缩减所致。

近年来全市一般公共预算上级补助收入规模相对较稳定,但全市产业创税能力较强,一般公共预算财力对上级补助收入依赖度低。2016-2018年上级补助收入占一般公共预算收入总计的比重在4.1%-5.4%之间。


14 税收比率=税收收入/一般公共预算收入*100%

图表11. 2016-2018年深圳市全市一般公共预算收入构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

tax income

2488.88

2654.89

2899.63

主要科目:营业税

363.94

-

-

VAT

650.95

991.28

1046.97

corporate income tax

569.52

667.85

680.62

Personal Income Tax

304.75

334.33

373.43




subject

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

Non-tax income

647.61

677.24

638.81

主要科目:专项收入

382.34

372.13

389.17

国有资源(资产)有偿使用收入

109.82

155.19

90.42

一般公共预算收入合计

3136.49

3332.13

3538.44

Higher subsidy income

232.42

290.95

286.81

省补助计划单列市收入

28.93

17.17

32.50

上年结余

178.79

164.46

135.70

调入预算稳定调节基金

861.33

1001.34

735.77

Transfer funds

1235.70

805.47

523.70

债务收入

0.00

0.00

13.00

一般公共预算收入总计

5673.67

5611.52

5265.92



资料来源:深圳市财政局

深圳市一般公共预算支出主要集中于城乡社区、交通运输、住房保障等方面,近年来全市持续加大民生保障和改善力度,一般公共预算支出规模快速增长,2016-2018年分别为4211.04亿元、4593.80亿元和
4282.56亿元,其中刚性支出占比分别为27.15%、33.60%和39.99%,一般公共预算支出弹性相对较好。2018年全市对城乡社区事务、交通运输以及住房保障等九大类民生领域15支出累计投入2772.29亿元,占一般公共预算支出的64.73%,重点民生支出得到有效保障。2016-2018年全市一般公共预算自给率16分别为74.48%、72.54%和82.62%,一般公共预算收入对其支出覆盖程度水平较高。总体看,在综合考虑调入资金、
预算稳定调节基金、上年结余等情况下,深圳市一般公共预算财政平衡能力好。


15 九大民生领域为教育、文化体育与传媒、社会保障和就业、医疗卫生、节能环保、城乡社区事务、农林水事务、交通运输以及住房保障。


16 一般公共预算自给率=一般公共预算收入/一般公共预算支出*100%。


17 本报告中,刚性支出指一般公共服务、公共安全、教育、社会保障和就业、医疗卫生和计划生育五项支出。


图表12. 2016-2018年深圳市全市一般公共预算支出构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

主要支出科目:







刚性支出17

1143.18

1543.69

1712.44

Urban and rural community expenditure

558.49

982.96

821.36

Expenditure for resources exploration information

560.02

221.64

118.25

Transportation expenditure

450.89

318.27

226.68

Housing security expenditure

426.09

556.55

263.22

一般公共预算支出合计

4211.04

4593.80

4282.56

主要科目:







Superior expenditure

71.98

75.48

73.79

债务还本支出

11.00

26.00

23.00

安排预算稳定调节基金

1010.31

615.20

616.84




subject

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

计划单列市上解省支出

144.85

153.23

151.26

Year-end balance

164.46

135.70

116.20

其中:结转下年支出

164.46

135.70

116.20

一般公共预算支出总计

5673.67

5611.52

5265.92



资料来源:深圳市财政局

深圳市政府性基金预算收入以国有土地使用权出让收入为主,易受房地产市场行情及土地出让进度等因素影响,近年来规模保持相对稳定,
2016-2018年分别为966.40亿元、1029.95亿元和964.64亿元,同比增速分别为0.25%、6.58%和-6.34%,受国有土地使用权出让收入减少影响,2018年政府性基金预算收入略有下滑。


图表13. 2016-2018年深圳市政府性基金预算收入构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

主要科目:国有土地使用权出让收入

896.61

960.72

898.24

政府性基金预算收入合计

966.40

1029.95

964.64

Higher subsidy income

5.54

5.17

5.87

省补助计划单列市收入

0.78

0.95

1.05

上年结余

666.92

433.81

551.92

Transfer funds

0.02

0.11

0.08

债务收入

-

20.00

39.40

政府性基金预算收入总计

1639.66

1489.98

1562.95



资料来源:深圳市财政局

深圳市政府性基金预算支出集中于以国有土地使用权出让收入安排支出为主的城乡社区事务支出,2016-2018年分别为413.75亿元、
537.04亿元和637.44亿元,其中城乡社区事务支出占比维持在90%以上。近年来政府性基金预算收入能够完全覆盖其支出,且覆盖情况较好。

由于政府性基金结转规模超过当年收入30%的部分,按规定调出至一般公共预算安排,故调出资金规模相对较大。


图表14. 2016-2018年深圳市政府性基金预算支出构成情况(单位:亿元)


subject

2016 year

2017 year

2018 year

主要科目:城乡社区事务

398.62

502.25

581.24

政府性基金预算支出合计

413.75

537.04

637.44

Transfer funds

792.10

401.03

418.86

Year-end balance

433.81

551.92

506.64

政府性基金预算支出总计

1639.66

1489.98

1562.95



资料来源:深圳市财政局

深圳市国有资本经营预算收入主要由国有独资公司上缴的利润收入和国有控股公司的股利股息收入构成。2016-2018年分别为67.59亿


元、38.94亿元和46.63亿元,其中2017年同比下降42.38%,主要系国有控股及参股企业股利、股息收入大幅减少等所致。同期,全市国有资本经营预算支出分别为54.73亿元、41.18亿元和38.26亿元,主要为国有企业资本金注入产生的支出。考虑到上年结余,调出资金、年终结余等因素,近年来深圳市国有资本经营预算平衡能力较好。


(三)深圳市政府债务状况

深圳市地方财政实力强,城镇化发展水平高,自身财政盈余基本能够满足基础设施建设等财政支出需求,政府举债规模小。近年来债务规模保持较低水平,政府债务负担轻。


近年来,深圳市政府债务规模保持较低水平,政府债务负担轻。截至2018年末,深圳市政府性债务余额为146.27亿元,较2017年末增加27.49亿元,主要为当年新增的专项债券。从债务类型看,全市政府债务(即政府负有偿还责任的债务)余额为145.92亿元,可能承担一定救助责任的债务余额0.35亿元,全部为深圳大学城学生公寓建设贷款;
无政府负有担保责任的债务。分层级看,深圳市政府负有偿还责任的债务集中于市本级,2018年末深圳市本级(不含新区)政府债务余额93.92
亿元,为历年发行政府债券、国债转贷和地方政府专项债券余额;区级政府债务为52.00亿元。


图表15. 近年来深圳市政府性债务情况(单位:亿元)


债务类型

Late 2016

2017年末

2018年末

政府负有偿还责任的债务

127.95

117.24

145.92

政府负有担保责任的债务

0.00

0.00

0.00

政府可能承担一定救助责任的债务

1.83

1.54

0.35



资料来源:深圳市财政局

债务限额方面,经国务院批准,2018年财政部核定深圳市地方政府债务限额为384.5亿元(一般债务限额313.6亿元,专项债务限额70.9
亿元18);截至2018年末,深圳市地方政府债务余额为145.92亿元,距财政部核定的限额仍有较大的空间。根据《关于深圳市2018年本级第一次预算调整方案的报告》,财政部下达深圳市2019年地方政府债务限额为698.5亿元,其中新增地方政府债务限额314亿元(包括一般债务限额11亿元,专项债务限额303亿元)。截至2019年9月末,深圳市

18 财政部原下达深圳市专项债务限额为241.5亿元,2018年12月,财政部根据党中央、国务院关于加快专项债务发行和使用的要求,收回深圳市暂未使用的新增专项债务限额170.6亿元,
并对收回额度在全国进行重新分配。



政府债务余额459.91亿元,全部为地方政府债券余额及国债转贷余额。


总体看,深圳市地方财政实力强,城镇化发展水平高,自身财政盈余基本能够满足城市基础设施建设及公益性项目建设等财政支出需求,
政府举债规模小,总体债务偿付压力轻。


(四)深圳市政府治理状况

近年来深圳市财税体制和债务管控机制不断完善;全市行政审批制度改革不断深化,政府运行效率与服务能力持续提高;同时,政府信息公开工作有序推进,政府信息透明度较高,地方政府管理状况良好。


深圳市作为我国改革开放的窗口,在国家财政体制改革方面拥有先行先试的优势。1997年,深圳市率先在全国推行以属地征收、分税分成为核心内容的市区分税制财政体制改革,规范了市区财政分配机制,对促进全市经济社会发展和财政收入增长起到了重要作用。近年来深圳市持续对地方财政体制进行改革与优化,目前已实施四轮市区财政体制,
其中第四轮市区财政体制自2011年起实施,至2015年期满,以财权事权下沉、促进特区一体化发展为目标,体制运行期间财政收入保持较快增长,特区一体化保障水平显著提高。


随着中央财税体制改革的加快,深圳市强区放权等决策部署逐步落实,市区两级间的事权、财权和支出责任划分持续完善。2016年,深圳市制定了第五轮市区财政体制方案,按照事权和支出责任相匹配的原则,
落实强区放权,进一步加大力度向区下放事权和财力,更好调动区级积极性,提升基层治理能力和财政保障能力。同时深圳市持续推进预算管理改革,进一步编细编实部门预算,2016年市本级财政专项资金、政府性基金和政府投资资金分类分步纳入部门预算管理;国库改革向纵深推进,2016年市本级实现国库集中支付全覆盖;此外,全市制定出台了《深圳市实行中期财政规划管理实施方案》,跨年度预算平衡机制进一步完善。2017年深圳市深入实施第五轮市区财政体制,大力推动事权与支出责任划分改革,推进管理重心和财力下移,增强区级财力保障和基本公共服务供给能力。2018年,深圳市实施第五轮市区财政体制中期调整,按照基本公共服务均等化的要求,进一步完善权责清晰、财力协调、
区域均衡的市区财政体制;同时推动深汕特别合作区财政体制调整平稳落地实施。


自国务院发布《国务院关于加强地方政府性债务管理的意见》(国


发[2014]43号)以来,深圳市按照财政部要求做好政府性债务统计和分析工作,动态掌握全市债务情况,政府性债务管理工作持续深入,对债务风险及时评判,对超过或者接近风险线的辖区给予预警;持续完善政府性债务管理体系,债券资金的发行和偿还已明确纳入预算管理,同时持续推进债务风险预警方案的制定工作。 2016年深圳市制订了《深圳市地方政府性债务风险应急处置预案》,对债务风险事件建立分级响应机制,实施分类应急处置,进一步健全政府性债务风险管理机制。 2017 year
6月财政部发布《财政部关于试点发展项目收益与融资自求平衡的地方政府专项债券品种的通知》(财预[2017]89号),鼓励按照地方政府性基金收入项目分类发行专项债券,为此深圳市不断完善专项债券管理,在严格将专项债券发行与项目一一对应的基础上,加快实现债券资金使用与项目管理、偿债责任相匹配,以及债券期限与项目期限相匹配。 2017
年12月深圳市制定了《深圳市轨道交通项目专项债券管理办法(试行)》,
首次规范了轨道交通项目专项债券的偿债来源、额度管理、预算编制等内容。2018年8月,深圳市成立政府性债务管理领导小组,负责统筹、
领导全市政府性债务和隐性债务管理,同时负责组织、协调、指挥风险事件的应对工作。2018年10月,深圳市印发《关于进一步深化预算管理改革强化预算绩效管理的意见》,通过转变理财用财理念、巩固强化预算管理主体责任、深化预算编制改革等措施进一步深化预算管理改革。

同期,深圳市印发《深圳市市级财政专项资金管理办法》,加强和规范市级财政专项资金的管理,提高财政专项资金的使用效益。


深圳市作为改革开放的前沿城市,在政策试点和体制改革等方面承担更多任务,十八届三中全会以来深圳市主动承接中央和省多项改革试点,近年来重点领域和关键环节改革取得重大进展,2017年深圳市出台基础设施供给侧结构性改革方案,制定深化国有企业改革方案及配套政策;推进财政预算管理改革,以项目库为重点编早编细编实年度预算。

此外深圳市政府逐步推进强区放权,以简政放权提高供给效率,不断深化行政审批制度改革,2017年取消、下放175项市级行政职权,政府运行效率与服务能力持续提高。根据《深圳市2017年改革计划》,深圳市重点推进涉及经济体制、生态文明体制、民主政治、文化体制、社会和司法体制、党建、纪检等七大领域的27项重点改革,其中包括“继续深化强区放权改革”、“构建财权事权相匹配的市区财政体制改革”等推进体制机制创新条款,涉及推进市级部门的简政放权,强化区级统、执行筹能力、优化权责匹配;构建财权与事权相匹配的市区财政体制等内容。



近年来深圳市政府主动通过各大渠道公开政府信息情况,信息透明度较高。深圳市政府通过完善政府信息公开制度、深化重点领域信息公开、加强政府信息供给的平台支撑等方面推进信息公开工作。制度方面,
2015年深圳市政府起草完成《深圳市政府信息公开规定(修订草案送审稿)》,2016年出台了《深圳市人民政府重大行政决策程序规定》,2018
年制定《深圳市人民政府办公厅关于进一步做好政务公开工作的通知》,
结合深圳实际加强政务公开队伍建设,信息公开制度逐步完善。内容保障方面,深圳市积极推进行政权力运行信息公开,制定全市统一的行政审批事项目录,全面启动权责清单编制专项工作,并通过编制、公布并动态更新政府信息公开指南和政府信息公开目录,逐步推进财政资金、
公共资源、重大建设项目等重点领域信息公开。平台支撑方面,近年来深圳市充分发挥“深圳政府在线”网站的信息公开“第一平台”作用,
以“深圳微博发布厅”新浪微博、“深圳发布”微信公众号、“i深圳”

政务服务客户端为龙头,着力打造全市政务新媒体矩阵,完善政府信息主动公开目录,全面规范公开政府文件信息。2018年全市各级行政机关全年主动公开政府信息117.60万条,涉及机构职能类、法规文件类、业务动态类、行政执法类、办事指南类等多项内容。同时全市加强政府信息供给的平台支撑,政府可通过网站、微博、微信等不同渠道和方式公开政府信息情况,2018年政府公报发布信息1267条,政府网站公开信息92.99万条,微博微信公开信息15.70万条,通过报刊、广播、电视等其他方式公开信息8.79万条。


四、 结论

深圳市具有优越的区位及政策资源优势 ,经济发展水平稳居全国大中城市前列。近年来以创新驱动产业升级,全市产业结构持续优化,支柱产业竞争优势明显,经济增长后劲充足。得益于良好的经济基础,深圳市财力雄厚,财力结构较稳健,财政平衡能力强。近年来,深圳市政府性债务规模较小,债务偿付压力轻。且深圳市不断完善财税体制和债务管控机制,政府运行效率与财政管理服务能力持续提高,政府信息透明度较高,地方政府管理状况良好。


本期债券为新增债券,募集资金拟专项用于深圳市机场卫星厅项目,
偿债资金来源于机场卫星厅的运营收入。在债券存续期内募投项目预期可偿债现金流能够对债券本息形成良好覆盖,且有一定规模的现金结余。

本期债券收入、安排的支出、还本付息、发行费用等纳入深圳市政府性基


金预算管理。总体看,本期债券偿债保障高。



跟踪评级安排

根据政府业务主管部门要求以及对地方债信用评级的指导意见,在本次评级的信用等级有效期【至2020年深圳市(本级)机场专项债券(一期)-2020年深圳市政府专项债券(二期)的约定偿付日止】内,本评级机构将对其进行持续跟踪评级,包括持续定期跟踪评级与不定期跟踪评级。


跟踪评级期间,本评级机构将持续关注深圳市经济金融环境的变化、
影响财政平衡能力的重大事件、深圳市政府履行债务的情况等因素,并出具跟踪评级报告,以动态地反映深圳市地方政府债券的信用状况。


(一) 跟踪评级时间和内容


本评级机构对本期债券的跟踪评级的期限为本评级报告出具日至失效日。


定期跟踪评级将在本次信用评级报告出具后每1年出具一次正式的定期跟踪评级报告。定期跟踪评级报告与首次评级报告保持衔接,如定期跟踪评级报告与上次评级报告在结论或重大事项出现差异的,本评级机构将作特别说明,并分析原因。


不定期跟踪评级自本次评级报告出具之日起进行。在发生可能影响本次评级报告结论的重大事项时,深圳市政府应根据已作出的书面承诺及时告知本评级机构相应事项。本评级机构及评级人员将密切关注与深圳市有关的信息,在认为必要时及时安排不定期跟踪评级并调整或维持原有信用级别。


(二) 跟踪评级程序


跟踪评级将按照收集评级所需资料、现场调研、评级分析、评级委员会评审、出具评级报告、公告等程序进行。


本评级机构的跟踪评级报告和评级结果将对业务主管部门及业务主管部门要求的披露对象进行披露。


在持续跟踪评级报告出具之日后五个工作日内,深圳市政府和本评级机构应在业务主管部门指定媒体及本评级机构的网站上公布持续跟踪评级结果。



appendix:

评级结果释义

根据财政部《关于做好2015年地方政府专项债券发行工作的通知》,地方政府专项债券信用评级等级符号及含义如下:

grade

meaning

AAA级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极好,偿还债务的能力极强,基本不受不利经济环境的影响,违约风险极低。


AA级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况很好,偿还债务的能力很强,受不利经济环境的影响不大,违约风险很低。


Class A

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况较好,偿还债务能力较强,较易受不利经济环境的影响,违约风险较低。


BBB级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况一般,偿还债务能力一般,受不利经济环境影响较大,违约风险一般。


BB级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况较差,偿还债务能力较弱,受不利经济环境影响很大,违约风险较高。


Class B

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况很差,偿还债务的能力较大地依赖于良好的经济环境,违约风险很高。


CCC级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,偿还债务的能力极度依赖于良好的经济环境,违约风险极高。


CC级

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,基本不能偿还债务。


Class C

对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,不能偿还债务。




注:AAA级可用“-”符号进行微调,表示信用等级略低于本等级;AA级至B级可用“+”或“-”符号进行微调,表示信用等级略高于或低于本等级。































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