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Local Government Bond Announcement: 2020 Shenzhen (Futian District) Industrial Park Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Government Special Bonds (Phase 6)-Credit Rating Report

Time: January 9, 2020 14:16:03 China Finance
Original title: Local Government Bond Announcement: 2020 Shenzhen (Futian District) Industrial Park Special Bonds (Phase 1)-2020 Shenzhen Government Special Bonds (Phase 6)-Credit Rating Report


2020
Shenzhen
(
Futian district
)
Industrial Park Special Bonds


(
Phase I
)



2020
Shenzhen Municipal Government Special Bonds


(
Six issues
)
Credit Rating Report





LOGO (full name) .jpg



In the city level,
The general public budget revenue is the main component of Shenzhen's comprehensive financial resources. The scale is large. The revenue of government funds is mainly based on the transfer of state-owned land use rights.
It is an important supplement to the city's comprehensive financial resources.

Shenzhen's debt scale remains low and the debt burden is light.

At the end of 2018, the government debt balance of Shenzhen Municipality was
14.627 billion yuan, mainly for general debts with repayment obligations. Most of Shenzhen's government debts with repayment responsibilities are used for the construction of public welfare projects. The structure of the debt repayment period is reasonable, and the pressure for centralized repayment is low.
The government debt rate within the municipal government's limit is much lower than
100% cordon. In addition, Shenzhen's financial institutions have large deposits and strong government deployment capabilities.
The local state-owned assets invested by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the Shenzhen Municipal People's Government (hereinafter referred to as "Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission") are large in scale and can provide greater liquidity support for Shenzhen debt repayment.

Shenzhen's financial and debt management system has been continuously improved, and information transparency has been continuously improved.

In recent years, Shenzhen has continuously strengthened its budget management, promoted the reform of its financial system, and continuously improved its debt management and risk prevention mechanisms. At the same time, the Shenzhen government has a high degree of information transparency and a good local government management situation.

The possibility of receiving special external support is very high.

As a strategic hub city, Shenzhen plays an important role in many national strategies.
Therefore, CSI Pengyuan believes that when the Shenzhen government faces a debt liquidity crisis, it is very likely that it will receive support from the central government or other local governments. Such support includes liquidity support, debt relief funds or any promotion of negotiations with creditors, or Actions to help obtain temporary financing, etc.









Main indicators (Unit: 100 million yuan):


project


2018 year


2017 year


2016 year


Regional GDP


24,221.98


22,490.06


20,079.70


GDP per capita (yuan)


189,568


183,544


172,453


Regional GDP growth


7.6%


8.8%


9.1%


Comprehensive financial resources of the city


-


7,164.03


7,402.13


Of which: City-level comprehensive financial resources


4,713.26


4,779.13


5,006.23


General public budget revenue of the city


3,538.44


3,332.13


3,136.49


Of which: City-level general public budget revenue


2,190.13


2,086.76


1,995.95


Municipal government fund income


964.64


1,029.95


966.40


Of which: Revenue of Municipal Government Funds


962.53


1,026.50


956.02


Balance of government debts of the city


145.92


117.24


127.95


Of which: the balance of government debts at the municipal level that are liable for repayment


93.92


103.53


97.08


City government contingent debt balance


0.35


1.54


1.83


Of which: Contingent debt balance of municipal government


0.35


1.54


1.83




Note: "
-"Means data is not available.



source:
Economic data comes from the Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2018, Shenzhen Statistical Bulletin of the National Economic and Social Development 2018, and financial data comes from the About Shenzhen
Report on Draft Final Accounts for 2016-2018 ", organized by CSI Pengyuan



I. Overview of the Bonds

(I) Bond terms

Bond name:
Shenzhen in 2020 (
Futian district)
Industrial Park Special Bonds (Phase I)

Special Bonds of Shenzhen Municipal Government in 2020 (
Six issues)
;


Issue scale:
RMB
120 million yuan;


Bond maturity:
5 years;


Repayment method:
Interest is paid annually; the principal is repaid in installments.
Repayment of principal in 1-5 years
15 million yuan,
30 million yuan,
35 million yuan,
30 million yuan,
10 million yuan.



(2) Use of raised funds

The proceeds raised from the bonds are intended to be used exclusively for the Shenzhen New Generation Information Technology Industrial Park project.

Total planned investment in industrial park projects
2.809 billion yuan, intending to use the current bond funds
120 million yuan. Debt income of the current period, arranged expenses, principal and interest payments,
Issuance costs are included in the budget management of government funds.



Analysis of fundraising projects

(I) Basic information of the project

The industrial park project is located in Meilin Street, Futian District, Shenzhen, Meimeiba Road in the north, Kaifeng Road in the east, and Zhongkang Road in the west.
Construction land area
32,834.20 square meters, the project construction content includes
6 high-rise R & D office buildings and industrial facilities with a construction area of
292,680.00 square meters.

Total Investment Estimates for Industrial Park Projects
2.809 billion yuan
1.

As of
2019 year
At the end of November, the industrial park project has been paid
1.350 billion yuan,
All for financial funds. Plan to raise special bonds through this bond,
funds
120 million yuan, proportion of total investment
4.27%;
The remaining funds are planned to be raised in the form of financial funds. If conditions permit, on the premise of meeting legal compliance and fund balance requirements, it may also consider raising special bonds or market-based financing in the future.



1
According to the "Review of the Proposal on the Shenzhen New Generation Information Technology Industrial Park Project" (Shenfu Development Reform [
2014]
No. 262), project development and construction
5 high-rise R & D office buildings and industrial facilities, with a total investment of
2.66 billion yuan; according to the "Futian District Construction and Public Works Bureau's application for a new generation of information technology industrial park
2
Block C (
Building No. 6) Project budget review and additional investment plan request "(Fujian Engineering [
2018]
No. 4) and "About Shenzhen New Generation Information Technology Industrial Park
2
Block C (
Building No. 6) Reply to the Estimated Project Estimates
2018]
382
No.), additional construction of the project
2
Block C (
Building No. 6), additional project budget investment
RMB 14,930.59 million. The total investment of this project is about
28.09
100 million yuan.



The project implementation subject is Shenzhen Futian New Generation Industrial Investment Service Co., Ltd.



Wholly-owned by the Supervision and Administration Commission)
Futian District Construction and Engineering Bureau is responsible for the preliminary approval of the project, bidding management, and other matters. After the project is completed, Shenzhen Futian New Generation Industrial Investment Service Co., Ltd. is responsible for operation.



(B) analysis of debt service guarantee

The income of the industrial park project comes from the rental income of industrial R & D housing, industrial supporting housing rental and parking space rental income.



According to the implementation,
The rent range of the industrial R & D housing market is
130-160 yuan
/ M2
/ Month, the rent range of the industrial supporting facilities market is
100-260 yuan
/ M2 per month,
Estimated unit rental price of industrial park projects, of which industrial R & D houses are
130 yuan
/ M2
/ Month, industrial supporting facilities are
100 yuan
/ M2
/month.

Based on the above estimates, taking into account the occupancy rate,
Industrial Park Projects 2020-2024 Estimated Revenue
1.685 billion yuan,
Of which funds can be used to repay the principal and interest of the current bond
202 million yuan.



Table 1 Breakdown of Industrial Park Project Income (Unit: square meters, yuan
/ M2
/ Month, ten thousand yuan)


years


2020


2021


2022


2023


2024


total


Property occupancy rate


60%


80%


90%


90%


90%


-


Industrial R & D House


area


262,070


262,070


262,070


262,070


262,070


-


Available price


130


130


130


130


130


-


Rental income


12,264.88


32,706.34


36,794.63


36,794.63


36,794.63


155,355.11


Industrial supporting houses


area


28,860


28,860


28,860


28,860


28,860


-


Available price


100


100


100


100


100


-


Rental income


1,038.96


2,770.56


3,116.88


3,116.88


3,116.88


13,160.16


Debt service ratio for current bonds


5%


10%


10%


15%


15%


-


Amount that can be used for debt repayment


665.19


3,547.69


3,991.15


5,986.73


5,986.73


20,177.48




Note:
This project is planned for
2020
July enters the operating period, so
2020 revenue by
6 months measurement
The bond is assumed to be
2020
1
Successfully released at the beginning of the month
2025 revenues and costs.



Source: Implementation plan, organized by CSI Pengyuan


The current issue size of bonds is
120 million yuan with a term of
5 years.

According to the implementation,
The coupon rate of special bonds issued in 2019 is
3.37%;
Reference of interest rate of this bond
2019 year
December
Five days before the 21st
Average 5-year Treasury yield, floating up
25 basic points, press
3.25% was calculated.

The cash flow situation is detailed in the table below.



Table 2 Cash flow forecast of industrial park projects (Unit: 10,000 yuan)


year


total


As of


2019
The end of the year


2020


2021


2022


2023


2024


2025


Financial inflow


150,208


150,000


208


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00





Bond capital inflows


12,000


0.00


12,000


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


Operating cash inflows


21,197


0.00


665


3,548


3,991


5,987


5,987


0.00


Total cash inflow


182,386


150,000


12,873


3,548


3,991


5,987


5,987


0.00


Outflow of funds during construction


162,001


150,000


12,001


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


Cash outflow during operation


5,309


0.00


201


936


1,043


1,565


1,565


0.00


Bond issuance costs


12


0.00


12


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


Bond repayment


13,138


0.00


0.00


1,890


3,341


3,744


3,130


1,033


Debt service fee


0.66


0.00


0.00


0.09


0.17


0.19


0.16


0.05


Total cash outflow


180,460


150,000


12,214


2,826


4,384


5,308


4,695


1,033


Current project cash inflows


-


0.00


659


721


-393


678


1,292


-1,033


Cumulative cash balance of the project at the end of the period


-


0.00


659


1,381


988


1,666


2,958


1,925




Source: Implementation plan, organized by CSI Pengyuan


Considering the cash inflow brought by the operation of the industrial park project, according to the implementation plan,
Project principal fund coverage can reach
1.16, coverage of principal and interest funds can reach
1.152.

On the whole, the income from the bond investment projects in the current period can meet the demand for debt repayment and interest payment in this period, and the project fund balance is good during the duration of the special bonds.



2
Principal Fund Coverage
= (Accumulated cash balance of the project at the end of the period
+ Repayable principal)
/ Repayable principal; principal and interest coverage
= (Accumulated cash balance of the project at the end of the period
+ Repayable principal and interest)
/ Repayable principal and interest.



(3) Analysis of the main risks of debt repayment

1. Construction and construction risks of fundraising projects

Due to the stability of the design plan,
Organizational management level of the project implementer, installation and operation technology,
For reasons such as the availability of funds, slow construction may occur, and there is a risk of increased cost investment. Considering that the implementation body of the industrial park project is a wholly-owned holding company of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shenzhen Futian District, and has extensive experience in project construction and equipment procurement,
During the construction of the bond investment project in this period, the risks were generally controllable.



2.Risk of project investment income not meeting expected risk

The debt service funds of this period of bonds come from the rental income of industrial R & D houses, industrial supporting houses and parking space rental income.
This income is greatly affected by changes in the unit price of the market rent and the actual leasing rate.
Will have a certain negative impact on debt servicing funds.



therefore,
The implementation plan stress-tested the income of the investment projects. When the industrial park project rental income was falling
5% and down
In 10% of cases, the bond coverage ratio of the bond is greater than
1. Funds for debt repayment and interest payment can still be realized.







Table 3 Stress test on income change of investment projects


project


decline
10%


decline
5%


Benchmark


Bond Principal Fund Coverage


1.03


1.10


1.16


Bond principal and interest fund coverage


1.03


1.09


1.15




source:
Implementation plan, organized by CSI Pengyuan


In addition, the above-mentioned project income has the risk of inaccurate investment calculations. These factors may include judgment biases in important links such as project progress, funding schemes, and overall cash flow measurement of the project. These deviations will cause the project feasibility analysis to not be corrected in a timely manner. The result of an imbalance between inputs and cash inflows. The above projects also have the risk of irregular fund management. If the government project's financial funds are not ready in time or the bond funds are used for other purposes, it will increase the uncertainty of repayment of the principal and interest on time and in full, and increase the risk of repayment. .



If the project's assumptions change, making it difficult for the investment project income to repay the principal of the bonds due, the project special bonds can be issued for repayment within the special debt limit and the coverage multiple is met, and then the project income is finally realized Then return it, or meet the requirements of repayment of principal and interest by adding capital.



(4) Summary

Capital fund coverage of industrial park projects can reach
1.16, coverage of principal and interest funds can reach
1.15, it is expected that the income from the investment projects can meet the demand for debt repayment and interest payment of the current bond.

Rental income of this project is decreasing
5% and down
In 10% of cases, the bond coverage ratio of the bond is greater than
1. Funds for debt repayment and interest payment can still be realized.

On the whole, the balance of project funds is relatively good during the bond duration.



Even if the project assumptions change, special project bonds can be issued for repayment within the special debt limit and the coverage multiple is met, and will be repaid after the project income is finally realized, or additional capital can be used to meet the principal payment. Interest requirements. In addition, according to the "Administrative Measures for the Budget of Special Debts of Local Governments", the current bond income, arranged expenditures, repayment of principal and interest, and issuance expenses are included in the budget management of the Shenzhen Government Fund. Generally speaking, the bond repayment guarantee in this period is high.


Economic foundation


Shenzhen has a significant geographical advantage. The economy is large and continues to grow.
First; Shenzhen's population structure is relatively young, and regional population import capacity is strong

3 Listed cities include: Shenzhen, Xiamen, Ningbo, Dalian, and Qingdao.



Shenzhen is located on the east bank of the Pearl River Estuary, facing Daya Bay and Dapeng Bay in the east, bordering the Pearl River Estuary and Lingdingyang in the west, bordering Dongguan and Huizhou in the north, and being separated by the water from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in the south, connecting Hong Kong and the mainland Ties and bridges.



As of the end of 2018, the built-up area of Shenzhen was 927.96 square kilometers.


Shenzhen is a national economic center and international city. Shenzhen has 9 administrative regions (Futian District, Luohu District, Yantian District, Nanshan District, Baoan District, Longgang District, Longhua District, Pingshan District, Guangming District) and 1 New districts (Dapeng New District). In 1980, Shenzhen became the first special economic zone established since China's reform and opening up. In 1988, Shenzhen began to implement a separate plan and has deputy provincial financial management authority. In 1992, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress granted Shenzhen the authority to formulate local laws and regulations. Power; in 2010, the scope of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone extended to the whole city; in 2019, the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Supporting the Construction of a Socialist Pioneering Demonstration Zone with Chinese Characteristics" was issued. Drive ”a major historical opportunity. In the forty years of reform and opening up, Shenzhen has undertaken important missions of experimentation and demonstration in China's institutional innovation and expanded opening up. In China's high-tech industry, financial services, foreign trade exports,
Marine transportation, creative culture and other aspects have a more prominent position.


Shenzhen is an important comprehensive transportation hub and border port in China. The development level of railway, aviation and urban rail transit is high. In terms of border ports, Shenzhen has 15 first-class ports approved by the State Council for opening up to the outside world. In the communication between the Mainland and Hong Kong, Shenzhen has significant geographical importance. In terms of railways, the national medium- and long-term railway network plan has identified Shenzhen as a national railway hub city. The Shenzhen area has basically formed a double cross structure with the Xiamen-Shenzhen Railway as the horizontal axis, and the Beijing-Guangzhou-Shenzhen Passenger Dedicated Line and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway as the vertical axis. The railway basically covers major cities in South China, North China and the southeast coast. In terms of urban rail transit, Shenzhen's rail transit is highly convenient. As of the end of 2018, there were 9 rail transit lines operated by Shenzhen; in 2018, the total volume of rail transit passenger traffic was 1.887 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%; in 2018, rail transit operations The length of the line is 296.72 kilometers, an increase of 11.72 kilometers from 2016. In terms of aviation, Shenzhen Bao'an Airport is a regional hub airport in the country and one of the fourth largest airports in China. In 2018, Bao'an Airport had a passenger throughput of 49,392,900 passengers, ranking fifth in the country.


Thanks to innovation-driven industrial transformation and upgrading, Shenzhen's economy has maintained high-quality and effective growth in recent years, and its economic development has steadily ranked among the top cities in the country. From 2016 to 2018, Shenzhen achieved a GDP of 2.007.70 billion yuan,
2.244 billion 060 billion yuan and 2.42221198 billion yuan, ranking first in the city by plan; calculated at comparable prices, year-on-year growth
9.1%, 8.8% and 7.6%, the growth rate slowed down, but still higher than the national level in the same period. From the perspective of residents' living standards, Shenzhen is at a relatively high level. In 2018, per capita GDP was 189,568 yuan, which was 293.81% of the national per capita GDP in the same period. In 2018, the disposable income of urban residents reached 57,544 yuan, a year-on-year increase. 8.7%.


Shenzhen's population structure is relatively young. Benefiting from the significant industrial clustering, headquarters economic effects, and greater talent introduction policies, Shenzhen's population migration trend has shown a significant inflow. According to the 2017 Shenzhen Gender Statistics Report, the proportion of the permanent population aged 65 and over in Shenzhen accounted for 3.24% of the total population in 2017, and the government's expenditure pressure on pensions and medical security was relatively light. In recent years, Shenzhen's education-related expenditure has been under great pressure, and the government has adopted a stronger policy on talent introduction. On the one hand, Shenzhen has further relaxed the introduction of younger, more specialized and highly skilled talents.



Pieces,
We will increase subsidies for high-end talents in terms of housing and living; on the other hand, simplify the approval process for the introduction of designated talents, and realize the efficient introduction of talents.

As of the end of 2018, Shenzhen's resident population was 13,026.6 million, an increase of 4.0% year-on-year; the registered population was 4,475,700, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year. The size of the permanent population is higher than the registered population, and the regional population introduction capacity is strong; the registered population growth rate is slightly higher than the permanent population growth rate, indicating that the Shenzhen talent introduction policy has an obvious effect, the number of registered residents continues to increase, and the continuous inflow of population brings urban development New vitality.


Table 4 Shenzhen's main economic indicators and year-on-year changes from 2016 to 2018 (Unit: 100 million yuan)


project

2018 year

2017 year

2016 year

Amount

growth rate

Amount

growth rate

Amount

growth rate

GDP(
GDP)


24,221.98


7.6%


22,490.06


8.8%


20,079.70


9.1%


Added value of the primary industry


22.09


3.9%


19.57


27.0%


8.28


-0.4%


Added value of the secondary industry


9,961.95


9.3%


9,318.10


9.2%


8,310.65


8.1%


Tertiary industry added value


14,237.94


6.4%


13,152.39


8.4%


11,760.77


9.9%


Industrial added value


9,254.00


9.0%


8,739.14


9.4%


7,800.22


8.1%


Investment in fixed assets


-


20.6%


5,147.32


23.8%


4,078.16


23.6%


The total retail sales of social consumer goods


6,168.87


7.6%


6,016.19


9.1%


5,512.76


8.1%


Total imports and exports (100 million US dollars)


4,360.95


7.0%


4,141.46


3.9%


3,984.39


-9.9%


Deposit balances in local and foreign currencies of financial institutions (including foreign capital)


72,550.36


4.1%


69,668.31


8.2%


64,407.81


11.5%


Loan balances in local and foreign currencies of financial institutions (including foreign capital)


52,539.79


13.4%


46,329.33


14.3%


40,526.90


24.9%


Disposable income of urban residents (yuan)


57,544


52,938


48,695


per capita
GDP (yuan)


189,568


183,544


172,453


per capita
GDP / national per capita
GDP


293.81%


310.04%


321.26%




Note: (1) Since 2017, R & D expenditure has been included in the GDP calculation. The Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2018 adjusted the previous year's GDP based on this, and this report uses adjusted values; ) In 2017 and 2018, the Shenzhen-Shanshan Special Cooperation Zone was included in Shenzhen's GDP calculation; (3) The import and export data for 2018 was 2,998.374 billion yuan, which was converted to the RMB 6.8755 intermediate exchange rate on the interbank foreign exchange market as of December 31, 2018. 100 million US dollars, the growth rate is the year-on-year growth rate denominated in RMB; (4) "-" is undisclosed data.


Source: 2016-2017 data from "Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2018", 2018 data from "Shenzhen National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin 2018", organized by CSI Pengyuan

Shenzhen is dominated by advanced manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and modern service industries. The high-end industrial development momentum is good. The four pillar industries have obvious competitive advantages. Innovation continues to drive industrial transformation and upgrading. Investment and consumption supplemented by a dynamic structure to promote sustained economic growth

Shenzhen's industrial structure is dominated by advanced manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and modern service industries, and has maintained rapid growth in recent years. In 2018, the added value of Shenzhen's secondary industry reached RMB 969.195 billion, an increase of 9.3%; the added value of the tertiary industry was realized
1,423.794 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4%. The three industrial structures were adjusted from 0.04: 41.39: 58.57 in 2016 to 0.09 in 2018:
41.13: 58.78.


From 2016 to 2018, Shenzhen's industrial added value reached 780.022 billion yuan, 873.914 billion yuan and 925.400 billion yuan,


The growth rates were 8.1%, 9.4% and 9.0%. Shenzhen's industrial high-end development momentum is good. In 2018, the added value of Shenzhen's advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries was 656.483 billion yuan and 613.120 billion yuan, an increase of 12.0% and 13.3%, respectively. In terms of service industry, in 2018, the value-added of Shenzhen's modern service industry was 1.009 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1%, mainly in the leasing and business services industry, the Internet and related services, software and information technology services.


From the perspective of the development of pillar industries, in 2018, the four pillar industries4 achieved a total value-added of 1.546594 trillion yuan, accounting for 63.85% of the current regional GDP. The four pillar industries have obvious competitive advantages, promote Shenzhen's continuous innovation, and continue to drive industrial transformation and upgrading. In terms of high-tech industries, Shenzhen has formed a high-tech industrial cluster dominated by the electronic information industry , and has become an important base for the industrialization of high-tech achievements in the country. In 2018, the added value of high-tech industries increased by 12.7% year-on-year;
In terms of the financial industry, Shenzhen is one of the cities with the highest proportion of GDP in mainland China. The financial industry clusters include Futian, Luohu, Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone, etc. Shenzhen financial institutions (including foreign capital) at the end of 2018 The balance of deposits and loans in local and foreign currencies was 7,255.036 billion yuan and 5,253,979 million yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% and 13.4%. In terms of cultural and creative industries, Shenzhen was the first city in the country to be awarded the title of "Design Capital" by UNESCO, 2018 In 2006, the added value of culture and related industries (above the scale) was 156.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. In the modern logistics industry, more than 80% of national supply chain management company headquarters are located in Shenzhen. At present, major logistics industrial parks include Qianhai Bay Bonded In the logistics park, Yantian logistics park, South China logistics park, etc., the added value of the logistics industry increased by 9.4% year-on-year. With the gradual development and expansion of the industry in the future, new economic growth points will be formed.


4 Shenzhen's four pillar industries:
High-tech industry, financial industry, modern logistics industry and cultural industry.



Judging from the driving force of economic development, Shenzhen has formed a driving force structure based on import and export, supplemented by investment and consumption.
Affected by the external environment, the growth rate of imports and exports has fluctuated in recent years. In terms of investment, although the growth rate of fixed asset investment slowed down from 2016 to 2018, it maintained a high level, with growth rates of 23.6%, 23.8%, and 20.6%, respectively. In terms of different industries, the tertiary industry is the main investment direction of Shenzhen's fixed investment. In 2018, Shenzhen's tertiary industry investment increased by 23.4%. In terms of different industries, the real estate industry is the main investment direction. In 2018, real estate development investment increased by 23.6%. In 2018, the construction area of commercial buildings in Shenzhen was 67.467 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%; the sales area of commercial buildings was 7,200,100 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. In terms of consumption, benefiting from the continuous growth of residents' income, the total retail sales of consumer goods have steadily increased.
In 2018, it achieved RMB 168.887 billion, with a compound growth rate of 5.78% in the past three years. Among them, the retail sales of consumer upgrades showed the best growth trend. In 2018, the retail sales of food, beverages, tobacco, sports, entertainment, books and magazines were Up 14.1%,
13.2% and 12.5%. In terms of foreign economy, benefiting from Shenzhen ’s opening up to the outside world, Shenzhen ’s total exports have been continuous
Ranked first among large and medium-sized cities in the Mainland in 26 years. In 2018, Shenzhen's total import and export trade reached 2.898374 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase.
7.0%, of which total exports were 1,627.469 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. However, the open economy is susceptible to the external environment. In 2016, due to factors such as slowing demand in the European and American markets, increasing downward pressure on the economy, and the relocation of production capacity of some enterprises, Shenzhen's total imports and exports showed negative growth, benefiting from 2017-2018 Global economic recovery, Shenzhen's total import and export volume is recovering


Refolding.


According to Shenzhen's "13th Five-Year Plan", Shenzhen will focus on developing strategic emerging industries and strive to become an international technology,
Industrial Innovation Center. As a strategic hub city, Shenzhen is shouldering the heavy responsibility of advancing national strategies such as the “ Belt and Road ”, “Ocean Power”, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and innovative nations, and has a bright future for development.


Financial strength and flexibility


Shenzhen's financial strength is strong, and the city's comprehensive financial resources are concentrated at the municipal level; general public budget revenue is the main component of the city's comprehensive financial resources, and its scale is large, but affected by the "tax and fee reduction" policy, the growth rate has slowed in recent years. The government fund income is mainly based on the transfer of state-owned land use rights, which is an important supplement to the comprehensive financial resources of the region.
May be affected by fluctuations in the real estate and land markets

The comprehensive financial resources of Shenzhen City from 2016 to 2017 were
74.213 billion yuan and
RMB 716.403 billion, with a large overall scale and strong financial strength. From the perspective of the composition of comprehensive financial resources, the overall financial resources of Shenzhen are dominated by general public budget financial resources.
The proportion of 2016-2017 in the city's comprehensive financial resources
More than 76% is mainly derived from general public budget revenue. The budgetary financial resources of Shenzhen's government funds have fluctuated slightly in recent years, mainly due to the impact of the real estate market and land market.



Shenzhen's comprehensive financial resources are mainly concentrated at the municipal level.
2016-2017 city-level comprehensive financial resources accounted for
66% or more.

2016-2018 Shenzhen's comprehensive financial resources
50.623 billion yuan,
477.913 billion yuan and
473.126 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of
-2.97%, showing a slight decline, mainly due to transfer income
5 due to decline.



5
The transferable income of Shenzhen's general public budget financial resources mainly includes: higher-level subsidy income, provincial subsidy plan separate city income, debt income,
Transfer to budget stabilization funds,
Transferred funds and balance income carried over from the previous year.



Table 5 Shenzhen-wide and city-level fiscal revenue from 2016 to 2018 (Unit: 100 million yuan)


project


2018 year


2017 year


2016 year


Citywide


City level


Citywide


City level


Citywide


City level


Comprehensive financial resources


-


4,713.26


7,164.03


4,779.13


7,402.13


5,006.23


(1) General public budget financial resources


5,265.92


3,239.03


5,611.52


3,370.04


5,673.67


3,451.69


Of which: General Public Budget Revenue


3,538.44


2,190.13


3,332.13


2,086.76


3,136.49


1,995.95


Higher subsidy income


286.81


286.81


290.95


290.95


232.42


232.42


(B) Budgetary Financial Resources


-


1,419.08


1,489.98


1,356.48


1,639.66


1,476.51


Of which: Government Fund Revenue


964.64


962.53


1,029.95


1,026.50


966.40


956.02


(3) Financial resources


-


55.15


62.53


52.61


88.80


78.03


Of which: State-owned capital operating income


46.63


40.83


38.90


35.44


67.59


59.30




Note:
(
1)
Comprehensive financial resources
= General public budget financial resources
+ Government Fund Budget
+ State-owned capital operating financial resources; (
2) marked "
-"Means data is not available.



Source: "About Shenzhen
Report on Draft Final Accounts for 2016-2018, organized by CSI Pengyuan



Shenzhen ’s general public budget revenues are relatively large, ranking first in the list of cities in recent years.

2016-2018 Shenzhen's general public budget revenue is
313.649 billion yuan,
333.213 billion yuan and
353.8444 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase
15.02%,
6.24% and
6.19%, the growth slowed down, mainly due to the gradual implementation of the "tax and fee reduction" policy. From the perspective of income structure, the general public budget revenue of Shenzhen is mainly tax revenue.
2016-2018 city-wide tax revenue as a percentage of general public budget revenue
More than 79%. From the perspective of tax structure, tax revenue is mainly based on value-added tax (including business tax), corporate income tax, personal income tax, and land value-added tax.
The total proportion of the city's tax revenue from 2016 to 2018 is
About 84%, the tax structure is relatively stable.

In 2018, Shenzhen City fully implemented the new “tax and fee reductions” introduced by the central government.

Policy measures, including lower VAT rates
1 percentage point, the monthly personal income tax deduction standard is increased to
5,000
RMB, corporate income tax R & D expenses plus deductions for expansion and bidding and other policies, the full implementation of the future "tax cuts and reductions" policy will cause Shenzhen's tax revenue growth rate to continue to slow down.

In 2018, Shenzhen's non-tax revenue fell year-on-year
5.68% to
63.881 billion yuan, mainly due to the substantial reduction in revenue from paid use of state-owned resources (assets).



2016-2018 Shenzhen's general public budget revenues at this level are
195.995 billion yuan,
208.876 billion yuan and
219.013 billion yuan was mainly tax revenue. Shenzhen's tax structure is relatively stable.
From 2016 to 2018, the total city-level value-added tax (including business tax), corporate income tax, personal income tax, and land value-added tax accounted for the proportion of total tax revenue.
About 91%. Shenzhen-level non-tax income is mainly special income
The proportion of the city's non-tax income in 2016-2018 was
Above 60%.



Table 6 General Public Budget Revenue of Shenzhen City and City Level 2016-2018 (Unit: 100 million yuan)


project

2018 year

2017 year

2016 year

Citywide

City level

Citywide

City level

Citywide

City level

General public budget revenue

3,538.44

2,190.13

3,332.13

2,086.76

3,136.49

1,995.95

(A) tax revenue

2,899.63

1,614.04

2,654.89

1,475.98

2,488.88

1,420.67

Of which: Value Added Tax

1,046.97

586.08

991.28

548.15

650.95

362.22

Business tax

-

-

-

-

363.94

256.91

corporate income tax

680.62

469.29

667.85

456.68

569.52

390.25

Personal Income Tax

373.43

225.46

334.33

201.58

304.75

174.52

Urban maintenance and construction tax

159.65

0.00

138.56

-0.01

133.49

-0.01

Land value added tax

327.72

187.87

259.32

146.54

219.64

122.70

Deed tax

164.73

87.24

130.81

71.56

128.77

68.39

(2) Non-tax income

638.81

576.09

677.24

610.78

647.61

575.28

Of which: Special income

389.17

389.12

372.13

372.07

382.34

381.77

Tax revenue / general public budget revenue

81.95%

73.70%

79.68%

70.73%

79.35%

71.18%



Source: "About Shenzhen
Report on Draft Final Accounts for 2016-2018, organized by CSI Pengyuan


The revenue of Shenzhen government funds is mainly the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, which may



The impact of field fluctuations.

From 2016 to 2018, the revenue of Shenzhen municipal government funds was completed separately
96.440 billion yuan,
1,029.95
Billion and
96.464 billion yuan, showing slight fluctuations. The municipal government fund income in Shenzhen is largely concentrated at the municipal level. The reason is that according to the current management system in Shenzhen, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights is first ranked at the municipal level. Pay for each district.



Table 7 Revenue of Shenzhen Municipal Government and Municipal Government Funds, 2016-2018 (Unit: 100 million yuan)


project


2018 year


2017 year


2016 year


Citywide


City level


Citywide


City level


Citywide


City level


Government fund income


964.64


962.53


1,029.95


1,026.50


966.40


956.02


Of which: Revenue from Transfer of State-owned Land Use Rights


898.24


898.21


960.72


960.71


896.61


893.48




Source: "About Shenzhen
Report on Draft Final Accounts for 2016-2018, organized by CSI Pengyuan


Shenzhen's fiscal expenditures are mainly general public budget expenditures.
The proportion of general public budget expenditure to fiscal expenditure in 2016-2018 was
89.99%,
88.82% and
86.37%.

In 2018, the city's rigid expenditure
6 Account for general public budget expenditure
33.21%, indicating that Shenzhen's fiscal expenditure is more flexible.

In 2018, Shenzhen's urban and rural community affairs, transportation and housing security, education, culture, sports and media, social security and employment,
Cumulative investment in energy saving, environmental protection, agriculture, forestry and water affairs
277.229 billion yuan, and expenditures in key livelihood areas have been effectively guaranteed.

Self-sufficiency rate of Shenzhen's public finances in 2018
82.62%, better fiscal self-sufficiency.

2016-
The government fund expenditures of Shenzhen City in 2018 were
41.375 billion yuan,
53.704 billion yuan and
63.744 billion yuan, which is mainly urban and rural community affairs expenditures mainly based on the state-owned land use right transfer income arrangements.



6 Rigid expenditure
= General Public Service Expenditure
+ Education expenditure
+ Social security and employment expenditure
+ Expenditure on health care and family planning.



Table 8 Financial Expenditure of Shenzhen Municipality and Municipal Level at 2016-2018 (Unit: 100 million yuan)


project


2018 year


2017 year


2016 year


Citywide


City level


Citywide


City level


Citywide


City level


Total fiscal expenditure


4,958.26


2,376.73


5,172.04


2,721.98


4,679.52


2,589.90


(1) General public budget expenditure


4,282.56


2,115.52


4,593.80


2,361.46


4,211.04


2,276.59


Of which: General Public Service Expenditure


358.40


125.16


283.63


106.93


214.38


87.83


Education expenditure


584.51


186.03


509.10


147.72


414.73


148.84


Social security and employment expenditure


197.75


73.41


239.72


92.60


105.45


38.12


Medical and family planning expenditures


281.50


113.01


244.23


94.52


201.27


69.27


(II) Government fund expenditure


637.44


213.04


537.04


320.88


413.75


260.88


(3) State-owned capital operating expenses


38.26


48.17


41.20


39.64


54.73


52.43


Rigid expenditure
/ General Public Budget Expenditure


34.10%


23.52%


27.79%


18.71%


22.22%


15.11%


Public finance self-sufficiency rate


82.62%


103.53%


72.54%


88.37%


74.48%


87.67%




Note:(
1) Total fiscal expenditure
= General public budget expenditure
+ Government Fund Expenditure
+ State-owned capital operating expenses; (
2) Self-sufficiency rate of public finance
=
General public budget revenue
/ General public budget expenditure.




Source: "About Shenzhen
Report on Draft Final Accounts for 2016-2018, organized by CSI Pengyuan


Fives,
Debt burden and liquidity


(1) Debt burden

In recent years, the scale of Shenzhen government debt has remained very low, the government debt rate is far below the warning line, and the government debt burden is light.


In recent years, the scale of Shenzhen government debt has remained low.

At the end of 2016-2018, the government debt balance of Shenzhen Municipality showed slight fluctuations, respectively
12.978 billion yuan,
11.878 billion yuan and
14.627 billion yuan; of which, Shenzhen municipal government debt is mainly concentrated at the municipal level.
More than 64%.



Table 9 Shenzhen government debt scale and structure from 2016 to 2018 (Unit: 100 million yuan)


project


2018 year


2017 year


2016 year


Citywide


City level


Citywide


City level


Citywide


City level


Responsible government debt balance


145.92


93.92


117.24


103.53


127.95


97.08


Of which: General debt balance


86.52


65.52


97.24


83.50


127.95


97.08


Special debt balance


59.40


28.40


20.00


20.00


0.00


0.00


Government contingent debt balance


0.35


0.35


1.54


1.54


1.83


1.83


Of which: debt with guarantee liability


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


Responsible debt


0.35


0.35


1.54


1.54


1.83


1.83




source:
2016-2017 data from `` About Shenzhen
Report on 2016-2017 Draft Final Accounts,
The data for 2018 comes from ``
2019 Shenzhen Municipal Government Budget (Draft)
Budget implementation in 2018, organized by CSI Pengyuan


From the type of debt, as of
At the end of 2018, the balance of debts of the Shenzhen Municipal Government responsible for repayment was
145.92
100 million yuan, of which the general debt balance is
8.652 billion yuan, the balance of special debt is
5.940 billion yuan; government contingent debt balance is
Thirty-five million yuan, all of which are debts with a responsibility to help, provide loans for the construction of student apartments in Shenzhen University City.



From the perspective of capital investment, as of
At the end of 2017, most of Shenzhen's government debts with repayment responsibilities were used for the construction of public welfare projects, and they were invested in public welfare projects such as municipal construction, affordable housing and education.
9.289 billion yuan, accounting for the proportion of Shenzhen government debts with repayment obligations at the end of the period
79.23%.



The structure of the Shenzhen government's debt repayment obligations is reasonable, as of
At the end of 2018, the Shenzhen government's debt
2019,
2020,
2021 and
The proportion of debts due in 2022 and subsequent years to total debt is
20.77%,
14.40%,
8.91% and
55.93%, less pressure on centralized repayment.



Table 10 As of
Distribution schedule of debt repayment obligations of Shenzhen Municipal Government at the end of 2018 (Unit:
Billion yuan)


project


2019 year


2020


2021


2022 and beyond





Debt Due


30.31

21.01


13.00


81.61




source:
"
Shenzhen Municipal Government Budget (Draft) 2019, organized by CSI Pengyuan


From the perspective of solvency,
Government debt ratio within the limits of Shenzhen government at the end of 2018
7 for
2.09%, far below
100%
Cordon.

At the end of 2018, the debt balance of Shenzhen Municipality with repayment obligations and the current year
GDP ratio
0.60%,
The government debt burden is light.



7市本级政府限额内政府债务率
=负有偿还责任的债务余额
/市本级综合财力。



(二)流动性

深圳市政府融资空间较大,深圳市金融机构存款规模大且政府调配能力很强,深圳市国资委出资的地方国有资产规模大,可为深圳市政府债务的偿还提供较大流动性支持


政府债务限额方面,
2018 年深圳市的地方政府债务限额为
384.50 亿元,与
2017 年相比,新增政府债务限额
52.40 亿元,其中新增一般债务限额
13.00 亿元,新增专项债务限额
39.40 亿元。从限额分配来看,深圳市地方政府债务限额集中于市本级,
2018 年深圳市本级地方政府债务限额为
310.20 亿元。从限额使用情况来看,截至
2018 年末,深圳市地方政府债务余额为
145.92 亿元,距核定的政府限额仍有较大的空间,深圳市政府融资空间较大。



表11 2016-2018 年深圳市政府债务限额情况(单位:亿元)


project


2018 year


2017 year


2016 year


地方政府债务限额


384.50

332.10


332.10


其中:一般债务限额


313.60


300.60


300.60


专项债务限额


70.90


31.50


31.50




资料来源:《深圳市本级政府
2017 年预算执行和
2018 年预算草案附表》、《
2019 年深圳市本级政府预算(草案)》,中证鹏元整理


从地区金融生态环境来看,根据
2017 年深圳市统计年鉴及
2018 年深圳经济运行情况统计,
2016-2018 年深圳市金融机构(含外资)本外币各项存款余额分别为
64,407.81 亿元,
69,668.31 亿元和
72,550.36 亿元。

2017 年,深圳市金融机构(含外资)本外币各项存款余额占计划单列市平均值的
272.81%,此外深圳市政府对当地资金的调配能力很强,在面临债务困境时,可提供较大的外部流动性支持。



深圳市国资委出资的企业主要包括深业集团有限公司、深圳市地铁集团有限公司、深圳市机场(集团)有限公司、 深圳能源集团股份有限公司等。 As of
2017 年末,深圳市属国企总资产达
25,553 亿元,增长
125%;净资产
9,440 亿元,增长
47%;全年实现营业收入
4,005 亿元,增长
165%;利润总额
862 亿元,增长
154%。在全国
36 个省(区、市)



和计划单列市中,深圳市属国企利润总额排名第
3 位。总体来看,深圳市国资委出资的地方国有资产规模大,国有企业质量效益表现较好,
根据现有法律法规定,
国有股权、土地资产和矿产资源等如能盘活或变现,
可为深圳市政府偿还债务提供较大内部流动性支持。



six,
政府管理与治理情况


深圳市近年来不断加强预算管理、推进财政体制改革,持续完善债务管控及风险防范机制,同时深圳市政府信息透明度较高,地方政府管理状况较好


深圳作为我国改革开放的窗口,在国家财政体制改革方面拥有先行先试的优势。近年来,深圳市秉承改革创新核心精神,在财政体制改革、预算管理、债务管理和信息公开方面持续推进相关工作。



财政体制改革方面,
2016 年,深圳市拟定了第五轮市区财政体制改革方案,旨在强化落实区级预算主体责任,充分调动市区两级积极性;
2017 年,深圳市全面启动了第五轮市区财政体制改革和政府投资事权划分改革,着力构建财权与事权相匹配的市区财政体制,
结合市级下放的事权,进一步提高了区级财政保障水平,
对基本公共服务均等化有一定促进作用。



预算管理方面,深圳市近年来积极加强预算管理工作。《中华人民共和国预算法(
2014
年修正版)》(以下简称“新预算法”)出台后,深圳市财政局进一步完善了全口径预算的编制工作。

2015 年以来,深圳市预决算完成情况较好,近三年财政预决算报告收支总额差异程度均较小。

2017 year
6 月,深圳市政府办公厅印发了《
2018 年市本级预算和
2018-2020
年中期财政规划编制方案》,以
2018 年预算编制改革为着力点,启动了深圳市预算管理改革,对中长期规划管理进行了加强。

2018 year
10 月,深圳市印发《关于进一步深化预算管理改革强化预算绩效管理的意见》,通过转变理财用财理念等措施,进一步深化了预算管理改革。



债务管理方面,深圳市政府持续完善债务管控的制度建设和管理工作,进一步完善了债务风险防范机制。根据财政部《关于对地方政府债务实行限额管理的实施意见》(财预〔
2015〕
225 号),从
2015 年起深圳市本级及区级政府债务实行限额控制和预算管理。

2017
year
1 月,深圳市财政局
8印发了《深圳市地方政府性债务风险应急处置预案》(深财预
[2017]1
号),对深圳市政府性债务风险管理进行加强,完善了应急处置机制,实施分类应急处置,


8 2019 年
1 月,《深圳市机构改革方案》发布,将深圳市财政委员会更名为深圳市财政局,原文件为深圳市财政委员会印发,下同。




进一步完善了深圳市政府性债务管理制度体系。

2018 year
9 月,深圳市财政局印发了《关于深圳市政府专项债券资金管理有关事项的指导意见(征求意见稿)》,对债券资金实行专户管理,临时闲置的债券募集资金,只能用于办理专户内流动性好、风险低的保本投资,实行专款专用、规范管理。



深圳市政府信息透明程度较高,政府信息公开工作有序进行。

2017 年,深圳市完善了服务平台,加强了“深圳政府在线”门户网站内各栏目以及“深圳发布”、“深圳微博发布厅”等政务微博、微信平台的建设,通过不同渠道和方式公开政府信息情况。

2017 年深圳市各级行政机关主动公开政府信息
696,485 条,以业务动态类信息为主,发布渠道包括政府公报、政府网站、政务微博、政务微信和报刊、广播、电视等其他方式。此外,在经济财政方面,深圳市信息的披露程度较高,公开及时有效。

2018 year
11 月,财政部发布
2017
年度地方预决算公开度排行榜,深圳市在全国
36 个省(区、市)和计划单列市中排名第二。



七、外部特殊支持


由于我国实行单一制行政体制,在政治上,地方政府不具有独立性,是中央政府的派出机构;在经济与财政层面,分税制改革以来,中央政府与地方政府实行分权管理,地方政府拥有可支配的财政收入并负担相应的财政支出。

新预算法修改后国务院明确规定,中央政府对地方政府债务实行不救助的原则,但从国家政治体制角度来看,中央政府出于保护经济和维护社会稳定的目的,
很可能向地方政府提供支持。



深圳市作为战略枢纽城市,在推进“ 一带一路 ”、“海洋强国”、创新型国家、粤港澳大湾区等多项国家战略中具有重要地位,经济和政治重要性非常高。因此,我们认为深圳市政府在面临债务流动性危机时,获得中央政府或其他地方政府支持的可能性非常大,这些支持包括流动性支持、债务救助资金或任何推动与债权人的谈判,或帮助获得临时性融资的行动等。







附录专项债券信用等级符号及定义


symbol


definition


AAA


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极好,偿还债务的能力极强,基本不受不利经济环境的影响,违约风险极低。



AA


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况很好,偿还债务的能力很强,受不利经济环境的影响不大,违约风险很低。



A


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况较好,偿还债务能力较强,较易受不利经济环境的影响,违约风险较低。



BBB


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况一般,偿还债务能力一般,受不利经济环境影响较大,违约风险一般。



BB


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况较差,偿还债务能力较弱,受不利经济环境影响很大,违约风险较高。



B


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况很差,偿还债务的能力较大地依赖于良好的经济环境,违约风险很高。



CCC


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,偿还债务的能力极度依赖于良好的经济环境,违约风险极高。



CC


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,基本不能偿还债务。



C


对应的政府性基金或专项收入收支状况、对应项目建设运营状况极差,不能偿还债务。





Note:
AAA 级可用“-”符号进行微调,
表示信用等级略低于本等级;
AA 级至
B 级可用“+”或“-”符号进行微调,表示信用等级略高于或低于本等级。







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如发行主体不配合完成跟踪评级尽职调查工作或不提供跟踪评级资料,本评级机构有权根据公开信息进行分析并调整信用评级,必要时,可公布信用评级暂时失效或终止评级。


本评级机构将及时在公司网站公布跟踪评级结果与跟踪评级报告。










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