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The situation in the United States and Iran affects the decline of A-shares in the global capital market

Time: January 9, 2020 09:51:02 Zhongcai
Missile launches, passenger plane crashes, yelling from the air ... The sudden changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have caught some global capital markets off guard, and even A-shares immersed in the warm current of spring turbulence can't help sneezing.

On the 8th, the changes in the international situation and the rapidly rising demand for adjustment superimposed, causing the three major A-share indexes to fluctuate downward, and the Shanghai Index fell below the 3100-point mark. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,068.89 points, down 1.22%; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index was at 10,706.87 points, down 1.13%; the GEM Index was at 1,862.70 points, down 1.61%. The heavyweights have obviously pulled back, while the gold and military sectors, which have a high degree of correlation with the international situation, have risen sharply.

However, the shock adjustment of A shares has not changed the inflow of northbound funds this year. Especially at the end of yesterday, the inflow of northbound funds accelerated, with a net inflow of 1.423 billion yuan throughout the day. UBS recently released a report, raising its earnings and index expectations for the Asia-Pacific stock market, and believes that the Chinese capital market is still a market worth overweight.

Asia-Pacific shares fell. European stock markets have stabilized in the past 20 hours. The situation in the United States and Iran has been unpredictable. In the morning of January 8, a news shocked the global market. In retaliation for the killing of Iranian military commander Casim Suleimani by the US military, the Iranian side fired dozens of missiles at two Iraqi military bases with US forces in the early morning of the 8th.

Affected by this news, the Asia-Pacific stock market fell sharply, of which the Nikkei 225 index closed down 1.57% on the 8th, and the Korea Composite Index fell 1.11%. The fast-rising A-share market has also been affected since the New Year. Heavyweight shares have sharply retreated. Gold, coal, petroleum and petrochemical and other cyclical industries have become safe havens for capital, and related products have risen against the trend. For example, Chifeng Gold and Ronghua Industrial of gold stocks closed at the daily limit. In addition, in the military sector, the Great Wall military industry , Zhongbing Red Arrow and other shares of daily limit.

Near the close of noon yesterday, twists and turns. A Ukrainian Boeing 737 crashed after taking off in Iran, with a total of 180 passengers and crew on board.

But judging from the performance of the international market, worries have not increased. As of press time, among the major European stock indexes, the British FTSE 100 index fell only slightly less than 0.1%, and the French CAC 40 index and the German DAX index have turned red after they opened lower.

Many research institutions have expressed their opinions on the geopolitical incident. Guoxin Securities said that in the short term, investors should avoid structural adjustment risks, rationally adjust their positions, and grasp the low absorption opportunities of leading stocks in the rebound potential sector. Pay attention to avoiding problem companies, lifting the ban, reducing holdings, declining performance, and anticipating delisting. Adjustment pressure.

Looking ahead, Huatai Securities said that from the perspective of the calendar effect and the macro data window period, the "red envelope market" may continue until the Spring Festival. Looking at the whole year, the upside of the index may be greater than the downside. In terms of rhythm, it is recommended to continue to grasp the market before the Spring Festival, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of fermentation of short-term geopolitical issues and the market pressure in February after the festival.

The Chinese market is still in the overweight direction until the close of yesterday, with a total net inflow of northbound funds of 1.423 billion yuan. Among them, the net outflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 414 million yuan, and the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 1.837 billion yuan.

Since the beginning of this year, Northbound funds have increased a lot of cyclical stocks. Four trading days before the new year (January 2, 3, 6, 7), China Construction's stock price rose 7.12%. During this period, the number of shares held by Northbound Capital also increased from 866 million shares at the end of last year to 1.074 billion shares, an increase of 24%.

In addition, Ganfeng Lithium , Tongwei shares related to the photovoltaic industry, Jidong Cement related to infrastructure construction, and Zhongnan Construction have all received northbound capital to increase their positions since the New Year.

On January 6, UBS released a report that raised its GDP growth forecast for the entire Asian region, arguing that Asian economic growth may have bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2019 and will accelerate from the previous quarter. UBS raised its EPS growth forecast for companies in the region from 8% to 11% to reflect a better macro situation.

As for the industry sector, UBS currently prefers cyclical stocks. The technology and optional consumer goods sectors are considered more expensive, while the industrial and materials sectors provide better value in the region's markets.

UBS is also particularly bullish on China's capital market and believes it is still overweight.
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