Foreign investors are buying wildly, the panel industry is getting hot and the market is just the starting price? Who has the greatest performance flexibility?
The GF Securities report shows that in terms of panel prices, the data shows that as of December 2019, the main size panels (USD / piece) have slightly increased from last month.
LGD production line is expected to reduce the supply of industries by more than 10% LGD will stop domestic LCD TV panel production at the end of this year.
Dongguan Securities believes that compared with the newly-built production lines in mainland China, LCD production lines in South Korea and Japan do not have advantages in terms of cost structure, capacity release efficiency, and profitability. In recent years, they have successively closed down production lines to save expenses, such as Samsung closing South Korea Local low-generation LCD production lines, Panasonic's withdrawal from the LCD panel business, etc., Japanese and South Korean manufacturers have successively sold or closed LCD production lines, which has eased the industry's overcapacity situation. If LGD stops domestic TV panel production before the end of the year, it is expected that the global LCD supply and demand structure will achieve a substantial marginal improvement, and LCD TV panel prices are expected to usher in a rebound.
Guosheng Securities believes that the panel industry is currently at the bottom. The long-term supply-demand relationship is too pessimistic. In fact, the supply side of South Korea has withdrawn from the factory, the domestic 10.5 generation line investment has fallen short of expectations, and the demand side of the LCD TV has many possibilities such as exceeding expectations. The panel industry will tend to balance supply and demand in the long run. At present, 32/55 inches have fallen below the cost of cash, and the price is at the bottom. At present, LGD occupies about 20% of the LCD TV panel industry. If the Korean domestic production line is closed before the end of the year, it is expected that it will reduce the industry supply by more than 10%.
Panel industry is currently at the bottom position <br /> Kwok Seng Securities believes that the panel industry is currently at the bottom position. The long-term supply-demand relationship is too pessimistic. In fact, the supply side of South Korea has withdrawn from the factory, the domestic 10.5 generation line investment has fallen short of expectations, and the demand side of the LCD TV has many possibilities such as exceeding expectations. The panel industry will tend to balance supply and demand in the long run. At present, 32/55 inches have fallen below the cost of cash, and the price is at the bottom.
The industry continues to shift to the mainland, and the mainland will gradually grasp the dominance of large-size prices. Mainland manufacturers are actively investing, and gross margin and EBITDA performance are better than their overseas counterparts. With the arrival of the depreciation withdrawal period for the 8.5 generation line in the mainland, the relative competitive advantage will continue to increase, and tolerance for price competition will increase. In addition, with the introduction of the 10.5 generation line, the dominant price of 65-inch and other large-size panels will gradually fall into the hands of mainland manufacturers. Long-term optimistic about BOE's leading position in the panel, flexible AMOLED child production increases profits. The investment value of the panel industry will gradually emerge. The boom in panel investment has passed. The domestic panel leader BOE has gradually increased its voice in the world, its scale is increasing day by day, and it has long-term investment value. The long-term rise of BOE's position in the panel industry remains unchanged, and mass production of AMOLED and the launch of new production lines will increase the company's performance. TCL Group's earnings are stable and growth is certain.
What are the core targets? Who has the greatest performance flexibility?
Tianfeng Securities said that it is confident in the magnitude and continuity of this round of price increases and the acceleration. If you look at the core price from the perspective of price increases, TCL ranks first, because cyclical stocks are a beta + alpha if the industry price increases. At the bottom of the cycle, the losses increase, and when the cycle starts, the flexibility is greater. When TCL and Huaxing Optoelectronics met this feature. The two leading players are TCL and BOE. Both companies have logic behind valuation enhancement.
The base for the price increase is 40% of BOE ’s TV panel is 50 billion, Huaxing Optoelectronics is close to 70%, and about 30 billion is used for TV panels. This year ’s market is generally stealing. Before the price increase, both targets rose by 25%. —30%, Tianfeng Securities believes that this time is a very important turning point and confirmation information for this industry, and the probability of this event landing is very high. This landing will continue to increase the cyclical continuity and latitude of the industry's price increase. It has a great impact, and the performance is very flexible. Now it is the position where the cycle has just started. We are all optimistic about the opportunity of this sector this year. There are two variables to increase the overall valuation of the sector. One is to enter Apple Consumer Electronics. The second is the substantial optimization of the competitive structure that significantly improved supply and demand in the medium and long term. In the first quarter, the logic of price increases was realized, and in the second quarter, the logic of Apple was realized. Both targets are optimistic. See more than 60% of space in two quarters.
New Times Securities believes that Trinity is the most beneficial target for the localization of panel materials. As a leading company in the domestic polarizer field, the company is mainly engaged in the development, production and sales of polarizer products. The main products include two types of TFT and black and white polarizers. , Is one of the few domestic enterprises with production capacity of TFT-LCD polarizers. The rapid growth in the production capacity of mainland panels will greatly stimulate the demand for polarizers, and localization of polarizers as the core material of the panel will be the general trend. The company is one of the most competitive companies in the domestic polarizer industry. The major downstream customers include domestic mainstream panel and module manufacturers such as BOE A, Shentianma A, and Tongxingda . The downstream customers are concentrated, and the company will accompany the comprehensive downstream companies. Rise and achieve rapid development. The company continues to expand its production capacity. The production capacity of the 1490mm polarizer production line in Hefei is affected by the introduction of large customers during the initial stage of mass production. The capacity utilization rate will be affected to a certain extent. In 2020, the capacity utilization rate and yield will be significantly improved. Line, Shenzhen Longgang 1490mm production line and subsequent planned production lines, the company's future production capacity is sufficient, laying a foundation for long-term sustainable growth for subsequent development.
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