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Which assets of the first black swan are worth watching in 2020

Time: January 9, 2020 08:52:38 China Finance
The black swan event refers to a very difficult to predict and unusual event, which usually causes market chain negative reactions and even subversion. The first black swan in 2020 is the resurgence of war in the Middle East. In the past two days, the stock market, gold, and crude oil have been affected by this, and they have also started to fluctuate.

With the escalation of war, which assets deserve attention?

(1) Gold is affected by many factors in 2019, and gold has risen a lot; coupled with this black swan incident, it has given a rising stimulus factor. Gold is a kind of safe-haven asset. As an asset allocation or hedging function, it can be allocated in small amounts. As for how much money you want to make, it is not realistic and is not recommended.

Because there are many factors that affect gold, such as the supply and demand of gold, the economy, the stock market, the exchange rate, risk events, and so on. We have listed some gold funds. Special reminder, this is just a list, not recommended.


There are two main types of gold funds.

The first type is the gold ETF and linked funds. The gold ETF tracking targets of the four fund companies of Huaan, Boshi, E Fund and Cathay are the same, and there is basically no big difference. In addition, the connection fund Zhonghua An and Boshi's connection C is relatively large. If you are familiar with a little fund, you may understand that some of the "gold" of the head three-party fund sales companies are all connected C. The scale increase is still considerable.

The second category is the gold QDII fund. There are also four funds that follow the QDII channel. The four funds are also slightly different. For example, Castrol and Nuo An invested in overseas gold ETFs; E Fund Gold invested in gold-related overseas stocks, such as gold mines. Huitianfu Gold will invest in other precious metals in addition to gold. To sum up, the size of such funds is not large; and QDII funds have poor liquidity. Even if investing in gold, it is not recommended to invest in gold QDII.

(2) Crude oil Middle East is called "powder barrel", most of which is related to its oil resources. Oil is called "the blood of industry." Crude oil prices will fluctuate once high winds in the Middle East's high-oil-producing regions make a splash.

We have also listed some funds related to crude oil.


The 6 funds are all QDII funds. Comparing the returns in the past year, we can find that crude oil funds have risen better, while some oil and gas related have performed poorly.

Nanfang, Jiashi, and E Fund mainly invest in crude oil funds (including ETFs), and track crude oil futures contracts, which are commodity funds. Nuoan tracks the S & P energy industry index, Huabao tracks the oil and gas upstream stock index, and GF tracks the Dow Jones US Petroleum Development and Production Index. These three essentially track the index and invest in stocks.

In particular, I want to talk about the "Internet Red Fund" of Huabao Oil & Gas , which has a scale of more than 4 billion, and the relationship between this fund and crude oil is obviously not as pure as a crude oil fund. I don't know why many people are buying it. All I can say is that the channels are doing well.

For the investment of crude oil funds, do not pursue short-term industry hotspots. As the war cools, oil prices will be less and less affected by this.

(3) When the military industry refers to "fire", it must say the military industry. Indexes related to the military industry include the CSI AVIC Military Index , the CSI Military Index, the CSI Air and Space Integrated Military Index , the CSI Military Leadership Index, and the CSI Space Military Index .

Among them, the index fund that tracks the CSI military index is the most, with 10 (including 4 ETFs). The scale of the rich country CSI military industry index was the largest, reaching 7.724 billion. At the same time, the scale of another leading military industry ETF in rich countries also reached 5.943 billion.


There are also 6 active funds. Among them, Yifangda 's largest defense industry is 3.397 billion, and the theme of rich countries is worthy of attention.

When investing in an industry, most will choose index funds. For index funds in the military industry, rich countries are the biggest winners. In fact, the military industry has fallen for three consecutive years. The PB of CSI military is lower than 87% of the time in history. Whether it will rebound in 2020 or continue to fall, it is hard to say.

We are still the original logic, do not go after the hot sector, let alone press a certain sector to bet on the future.

In summary, the above-mentioned short-term gold, crude oil, and military sectors are not recommended in accordance with our investment ideas. Funds in industries and themes are often relatively risky.

In addition, in the downside, if you are afraid to buy the high point of partial equity funds, you can first arrange some secondary debt-based or partial debt funds as the bottom position. (WeChat public account fried egg)
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