What exactly is a rising HIT? Leading stocks have doubled. These stocks have potential (list)
Data show that since the beginning of the year, Jiejia Flextronics and Almaden have increased by more than 30%, and Maiwei , Luxiao Technology , Follett and Tongwei have increased by nearly 20%. Over the past month or so, Almaden's cumulative increase has reached 100%.
The surge in photovoltaics stems from three major news catalysis.
Buffett bets big on solar
The news that Buffett bet big on solar projects caused widespread concern. A subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway, which Buffett is in charge of, will build a 690 MW solar power plant in Nevada (which will be the largest photovoltaic project in the United States). The U.S. Land Administration recently issued a statement saying it would approve the project after the 90-day public comment phase ends (Buffett has said, "If someone comes to market a solar project tomorrow, it will cost $ 1 billion or $ 3 billion Investment, we are ready to do it, this opportunity is better. ").
New PV grid-connected volume in December reversed sharply. /> Domestic photovoltaic power stations welcomed the peak of grid-connection. It is estimated that the new domestic grid-connected capacity will exceed 8GW by the end of December 2019. It is worth noting that the cumulative domestic newly added grid-connected capacity in August-November was only 4.5G, and the scale of grid-connection exceeded expectations in December is expected to boost related companies' fourth-quarter performance in 2019.
Institutions have recently paid close attention to HIT (heterojunction battery)
Institutions have recently paid close attention to HIT. The China Merchants Securities report pointed out that in the past few years, the dividends brought by technological changes such as P-PERC have promoted a significant decline in the cost of electricity and a large-scale development of the industry. At present, the photovoltaic industry is in a new era. On the eve of the rapid development of wheel technology, high-efficiency batteries and large silicon wafers may be the most promising direction for breakthroughs in the next few years. Among its many high-efficiency battery technology routes, HIT has some outstanding physical characteristics and advantages. In recent years, some domestic and foreign companies have begun commercialization and promotion of HIT batteries. The main contradiction currently is the availability of core equipment such as PECVD, and then it may continue to improve efficiency and reduce costs. Comprehensive industrial status, HIT battery industrialization is accelerating, and a breakthrough may be brewing.
In the past few years, dividends brought by technological changes such as P-PERC have driven a significant decrease in the cost of electricity and a large development of the industry. At present, the photovoltaic industry is on the eve of a new round of large-scale technological development. Among them, high-efficiency batteries And large silicon wafers may be the most promising direction for breakthroughs in the next few years. Among its many efficient battery technology routes, HIT has some outstanding physical characteristics and advantages.
What is a heterojunction battery?
HIT battery structureHIT battery structureHIT battery structure: crystalline silicon substrate + 3 films on the front and back. The HIT battery uses an N-type single crystal silicon wafer as a substrate, and an intrinsic amorphous silicon film, a doped amorphous silicon film, and a metal oxide conductive layer TCO are sequentially deposited on the front and back sides, and then positive and negative electrodes are produced by screen printing to derive current. .
HIT core process heterojunction cells have the advantages of high efficiency and low attenuation. At present, the mainstream companies' mass production efficiency stands at 24%, and new entrants in the industry are also basically above 23.5%. It is expected to hit 25% by the end of next year. High efficiency brings BOM cost savings in component link and BOS cost in power plant link. The current single-crystal PERC and conventional polycrystalline silicon have a difference of 3% in efficiency and a price difference of 0.35 yuan / watt. The average annual attenuation of HIT is 0.25%, less than half that of PERC, and about 5% more power is generated in 25 years. HIT battery double-sided rate can reach 95%, PERC is generally about 75%. Because the front power of the HIT battery is also high, the back gain is greater after superimposing a high double-sided rate. Based on the 60 version, the effective power is 10W more.
The cost reduction path of HIT predicts that the space for upgrading heterojunction batteries is large, and the efficiency limit of crystalline silicon batteries is about 30%. Neither PERC nor HIT can reach this level of efficiency. The potential of PERC is expected to be 23%, and the HIT is expected to be 26%. Nearby As for the results of decades of technological exploration, the technology direction recognized by the industry in the next 10 years is HIT + perovskite as a stacked battery (Tandem). HIT to stack only needs to add 3 equipments, 4 layers of film, and the cost increases by about 0.2 yuan / watt. HIT can be upgraded to stacking, HIT production line and next-generation stacking production line can be fully compatible, greatly reducing the risk of HIT production line being subverted.
Analysis of key beneficiary stocks By the end of 2018, there were only 6 domestic companies (Hanneng, Jinneng, Junshi, Zhongzhi, Tongwei, Shangpeng) with domestic HIT deployments, and currently they have reached 20. HIT has further verified the feasibility of HIT. HIT has not stayed in the concept stage, but has already started industrialization. With the advancement of industrialization, there will be a lot of progress in 2020, which will catalyze the HIT market.
China Merchants Securities believes that HIT is likely to be the mainstream technology for the next generation of photovoltaic cells. At present, HIT is in the stage of getting out of the line dispute and obtaining the recognition of the photovoltaic industry and out-of-industry capital, and this recognition is gradually being transmitted to the capital market. The technical direction confirms that this is a market from 0 to 1, which will bring explosive investment opportunities in all links.
Silicon materials: recommend or pay attention to Tongwei and Daquan (US stocks) with a high proportion of N-type materials.
Wafer link: N-type wafer leader Longji shares are recommended.
Battery link: recommended large-scale layout of Shanxi Coal International (coal coal), Tongwei shares , Oriental Risheng .
Consumables: Focus on Suzhou Gujing (subsidiary Suzhou Jingyin produces low-temperature silver paste), Changzhou Juhe (to be listed).
Equipment link: Jiejia Weichuang (Mechanical Union), Maiwei Co., Ltd. ( Jinchen Union) and Jinchen Co. are recommended.
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